2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2552024 29-Aug-2020 18:37

tdgeek:

All too negative. Self isolating is no different in L4 as it is in L0. Who is policing them? I guess the people are. No 24/7 armed guards outside the houses. Who can stop them flying to Bluff on Monday? Probably no one. As from Day one when Italians scarpered, to infect everyone else in Italy. I get your point but where does trust end and armed guards per house start? Police can control that streets but how many do we have to spare? Id have no issue with that at all, but this isnt Russia or China.If things went as bad as you suggest its the Team of 5 Millions fault. Or we put the economy to one side for 12 months, and ban everyone no matter who from entering NZ including citizens and residents, but you cant do that either.

IT RELIES ON US. Not a few dozen people in Government.

Trusting everyone to do the right thing doesn't work, as was proven by what happened prior to the first level 4 lockdown. Some people simply won't do the right thing.Only level 4, then 3, has actually worked to eliminate the virus from NZ. The same goes for trusting people to self isolate when returning to NZ. That didn't work, and the government could trust people to do it. So they have police guarding them from escaping MIQ, because some people couldn't be trusted, and that is a fact.

A two week level 3 lockdown potentially could have worked, but if it ends too early, to actually starve the virus of new hosts, then the infection rate R0 could increase again from Monday, and we are always up to 14 days behind it. The fact is that some of these people were infected well over 14 days ago, and have only been tested now, right before they exit the level 3 lockdown.

Also I don't think it is fair to the rest of NZ to still be in level 2, if the virus is ringfenced properly in Auckland. For example, why should Christchurch still be in Level 2 from Monday when there haven't been any cases for many months, when level 1.5 would be more appropriate. The only reason appears, because some people from Auckland may visit Christchurch after Sunday. I do wonder if there will be a last minute change tomorrow, based on the trend.

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#2552030 29-Aug-2020 19:00

mattwnz:

A two week level 3 lockdown potentially could have worked, but if it ends too early, to actually starve the virus of new hosts, then the infection rate R0 could increase again from Monday, and we are always up to 14 days behind it. The fact is that some of these people were infected well over 14 days ago, and have only been tested now, right before they exit the level 3 lockdown.

I haven't looked at the data - so it may be that they've got reason to be confident that they've ring-fenced it - but I'd like to see the reason why L3 should be lifted tomorrow night - because "that was the plan - and people expect it" doesn't cut it for me. Based on case numbers today - it seems like lunacy. So close - but not quite there. "Chasing second prize" isn't good enough IMO.

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#2552033 29-Aug-2020 19:00

Experts call for rethink on Auckland's move to level 2.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12360592

A good article to read. Just a few quotes

"We know that level 2 is not really designed to contain a community outbreak. Level 2 definitely runs the risk of the outbreak starting to grow again."

"Going down to level 2 on Monday means it's more likely we will start to see numbers at the very least not decrease. We'd have a very prolonged transmission and there will be some risk of the numbers starting to track up,"

It also discusses mass masking, which is now common place in covid countries overseas. It potentially reduces the R0 infection rates if worn properly, which is always a good thing.

Fred99

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#2552038 29-Aug-2020 19:18

mattwnz:

It potentially reduces the R0 infection rates if worn properly, which is always a good thing.

This is true, but zero CT is a far better plan than a low R0 with CT - if it's possible. If it isn't, then we should be told. I don't think we're ready to shift down levels yet - at least not to L2 for Akl. I think where I am (Chch) with L2, people are being quite compliant with the rules, but there's still no way our L2 here could contain and ring-fence CT.

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#2552042 29-Aug-2020 19:36

It's the rush back to the workplace that worries me. From personal experience I know of one employer (multinational) that has had people working from home as productive as ever at Level 3 in Auckland, but insists they all come back to a crowded office in Level 2 from all over the city (masks voluntary) because managers obviously do not trust employees unless they can see them. Anyone comes with Covid and we have a lot more in the cluster. And no gain in productivity. Wish OSH could do something.

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#2552044 29-Aug-2020 19:54

mattwnz:

Trusting everyone to do the right thing doesn't work, as was proven by what happened prior to the first level 4 lockdown. Some people simply won't do the right thing.Only level 4, then 3, has actually worked to eliminate the virus from NZ. The same goes for trusting people to self isolate when returning to NZ. That didn't work, and the government could trust people to do it. So they have police guarding them from escaping MIQ, because some people couldn't be trusted, and that is a fact.

A two week level 3 lockdown potentially could have worked, but if it ends too early, to actually starve the virus of new hosts, then the infection rate R0 could increase again from Monday, and we are always up to 14 days behind it. The fact is that some of these people were infected well over 14 days ago, and have only been tested now, right before they exit the level 3 lockdown.

Also I don't think it is fair to the rest of NZ to still be in level 2, if the virus is ringfenced properly in Auckland. For example, why should Christchurch still be in Level 2 from Monday when there haven't been any cases for many months, when level 1.5 would be more appropriate. The only reason appears, because some people from Auckland may visit Christchurch after Sunday. I do wonder if there will be a last minute change tomorrow, based on the trend.

Yes, it is a fact but MIQ is not the issue, despite the whining about border security, it works, ask the 38000 who came home.

So MIQ is not the issue, the rest of us are, who as you say can't be trusted. Do you want Police guards on us too? Good idea but not enough officers.

I dont get this, you say two week Level 3 could have worked? How? We cant be trusted as you say . Level 3 now is not the same as level 4 in March.

The reality is that public buy in isn't as deep or as strong as it was. Balancing that is we have a cluster not nationwide cases. The human factor and time is the weakness, there is no point discussing R0 and 14 days, the issue now is many are over it, and even if they are a minority, its a minority that can hurt us. But its supposedly contained, its local, testing has a high capability, contact tracing has a high capability, its a different ball game than level 4 in March. We have to accept more risk, but we have better capability. There was no option for Level 4 this time round.

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heavenlywild

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#2552045 29-Aug-2020 19:58

I feel the government is applying a different set of criteria for making this decision to go to level 2 this time.

How do you set the level half a week beforehand? If we apply the same criteria from back in March / April we would still be in level 3 at best for another 2 weeks.

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#2552049 29-Aug-2020 20:06

heavenlywild: I feel the government is applying a different set of criteria for making this decision to go to level 2 this time.

How do you set the level half a week beforehand? If we apply the same criteria from back in March / April we would still be in level 3 at best for another 2 weeks.

I feel a driver of the decision this time is finance influenced. The debt the government is accumulating on a daily basis is huge. My mokopuna will be paying it back.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

tdgeek

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#2552050 29-Aug-2020 20:07

heavenlywild: I feel the government is applying a different set of criteria for making this decision to go to level 2 this time.

How do you set the level half a week beforehand? If we apply the same criteria from back in March / April we would still be in level 3 at best for another 2 weeks.

IMHO It cant be compared to March

1. Cluster not nationwide

2. Testing and Covid fatigue means that you wont get the determination that we had in March. Its not flouters as such, its about the many minority that don't bother with distancing etc.

But we are better now to manage a cluster than before, that was always the plan, and IMO its still going to plan. An outbreak was inevitable, Govt said that, its being managed.

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#2552155 29-Aug-2020 21:43

tdgeek:

IMHO It cant be compared to March

1. Cluster not nationwide

2. Testing and Covid fatigue means that you wont get the determination that we had in March. Its not flouters as such, its about the many minority that don't bother with distancing etc.

But we are better now to manage a cluster than before, that was always the plan, and IMO its still going to plan. An outbreak was inevitable, Govt said that, its being managed.

1. Will be nation wide soon, once the Auckland gates are open for it to spread so that won’t be a reason.
Seems ring fenced at moment.

2. Well then there’s no hope if people won’t comply, it’ll soon be bigger part of country and will only get worse if allowed to spread.

As for comment in another post that MIQ is not the problem 38,000 have returned, yeah and the result 1.8 million in lock down, case numbers not dropping, guess that’s not a failure?

Also stopping people from entering the country does not put the economy to one side. Over 80% of economy is still good. Allowing virus to spread is far worse for the economy.

Fred99

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#2552158 29-Aug-2020 22:07

MikeB4:

heavenlywild: I feel the government is applying a different set of criteria for making this decision to go to level 2 this time.

How do you set the level half a week beforehand? If we apply the same criteria from back in March / April we would still be in level 3 at best for another 2 weeks.

I feel a driver of the decision this time is finance influenced. The debt the government is accumulating on a daily basis is huge. My mokopuna will be paying it back.

The "perpetual level 2.5 lockdown" that much of the rest of the developed world is in is a damned sight worse in economic impact, nowhere near "herd immunity" and a pile of corpses that could have been avoided.

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mattwnz

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#2552195 30-Aug-2020 01:22

Guess we will know what is happening at 1pm when there is going to be an announcement by the PM. This story tonight on One News has me very concerned. https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/members-mt-roskill-church-gathered-prayer-meetings-during-lockdown

I wouldn't have thought we should be getting new cases being detected outside of families with existing Covid infections, when we are well past the 14 day incubation period, since we have been in level 3 lockdown.

Also this link below of of Australia discusses how Covid could affect people with significant long term diseases, including heart disease. She also discusses that the University of Glasgow did some research that showed that someone who dies of COvid 19 , on average lost 10 years of their life, that they would have otherwise expected to have. So it shows how important it is that the virus doesn't get out into the rest of New Zealand community.

Queensland chief health officer warns of long-term impacts of virus

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12360580

Batman

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#2552202 30-Aug-2020 06:03

the News link said they defied lockdown rules. SMH

from other news they were not the only AKLers defying rules - sounds widespread - during any lockdown anywhere in the world, same story.

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#2552203 30-Aug-2020 06:05

In the meantime I lost faith in mankind and protect myself regardless of any 'recommendations' or 'howtos'. The only thing I strictly claim for is keeping distance - despite there are plenty people even don't care for it.

It's simple: no strict precautions - no customer (I leave without big explainations but let them know why).

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

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#2552204 30-Aug-2020 06:08

Tinkerisk:

In the meantime I lost faith in mankind an protect myself regardless of any 'recommendations' or 'howtos'. The only thing I strictly claim for is keeping distance - despite there are plenty people even don't care for it.

It's simple: no strict precautions - no customer (I leave without big explainations but let them know why).

tell me - Germans, one of the best rule followers - how many defy lockdown rules?

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