Nissan LEAF - General

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#2098689 30-Sep-2018 08:49

Scott3:
There are a massive number of Nissan leaf's on the market, roughly 700 on trademe... mostly fresh imports (seems less than 10% have number plates on).

In Q3 2018 there were 637 leaf registrations. That means the market has about four months of stock on hand. I can see why some are getting the feeling the market is crowded.

Regarding the thing about government incentives, there is some risk to dealers that the incentive could devalue their stock on hand. for example if a $7k rebate was given to dealers when used leaf's left the port, then any further leaf's would undercut those already on the market....

The incentive should go to the buyer rather than the dealer, that’s the way it works in other countries. That way you get maximum visibility of the incentive by the public and you can credit the cars already here.

wellygary

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#2098693 30-Sep-2018 10:04

Scott3:
There are a massive number of Nissan leaf's on the market, roughly 700 on trademe... mostly fresh imports (seems less than 10% have number plates on).

In Q3 2018 there were 637 leaf registrations. That means the market has about four months of stock on hand. I can see why some are getting the feeling the market is crowded.

The curent MOT stats are not for the full quarter only July and August, so its likely that the full Q3 will be around 1000,

in Q3 866 were registered,

So its probably just over 2 months supply not 4...

Scott3

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#2098707 30-Sep-2018 10:48

happyfunball:

The incentive should go to the buyer rather than the dealer, that’s the way it works in other countries. That way you get maximum visibility of the incentive by the public and you can credit the cars already here.

Seem's likely that any purchase incentive would be applied at time of registration, hence covering car's already here. That said, from an incentive point of view, that's a lot of money spent for not a single new electric car in the market.

Giving incentive to buyers (i.e. USA tax credit) does have some issues. Means buyer has to pony up full value of car to dealer, then claim rebate from government. OK if you have a spare say $7k lying around, but problematic if you are stretching your finances to buy an EV (particularly for buyers who are not willing to borrow for a car purchase).

wellygary: The curent MOT stats are not for the full quarter only July and August, so its likely that the full Q3 will be around 1000, in Q3 866 were registered, So its probably just over 2 months supply not 4...

I wondered why Q3 was way less than Q2 given recent EV publicity, in interest driven by fuel prices.

2 months stock doesn't sound excessive, especially given that a lot of cars seem to be listed while still in transit.

happyfunball

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#2098714 30-Sep-2018 11:32

Scott3:

happyfunball:

The incentive should go to the buyer rather than the dealer, that’s the way it works in other countries. That way you get maximum visibility of the incentive by the public and you can credit the cars already here.

Seem's likely that any purchase incentive would be applied at time of registration, hence covering car's already here. That said, from an incentive point of view, that's a lot of money spent for not a single new electric car in the market.

Giving incentive to buyers (i.e. USA tax credit) does have some issues. Means buyer has to pony up full value of car to dealer, then claim rebate from government. OK if you have a spare say $7k lying around, but problematic if you are stretching your finances to buy an EV (particularly for buyers who are not willing to borrow for a car purchase).

wellygary: The curent MOT stats are not for the full quarter only July and August, so its likely that the full Q3 will be around 1000, in Q3 866 were registered, So its probably just over 2 months supply not 4...

I wondered why Q3 was way less than Q2 given recent EV publicity, in interest driven by fuel prices.

2 months stock doesn't sound excessive, especially given that a lot of cars seem to be listed while still in transit.

An incentive given to dealers may not translate to lower prices for the consumer, especially if there are slim pickings for EV's. I think that would be a PR disaster the government wouldn't want to risk.

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#2098758 30-Sep-2018 14:42

Every time something is subsidized the prices are inflated by that same amount. Look at house insulation for example.

gzt

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#2098766 30-Sep-2018 15:00

Batman: Every time something is subsidized the prices are inflated by that same amount. Look at house insulation for example.

I don't think that is the case for house insulation. Do you have any references for that?

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Batman

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#2098767 30-Sep-2018 15:01

I read it on stuff. I'll see if i can find it on my mobile. Usually need laptop to find anything

tripper1000

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#2099300 1-Oct-2018 12:23

As per post above, the incentive needs to be paid to the consumer, not the dealer/provider, otherwise you do hydraulic prices.

IMO any subsidy will be on new EV's only. Reason is that if prices are high because supply is already constricted (as seen in Auckland housing) then paying an incentive/subsidy does hydraulic prices. 2nd hand EV supply is already strained, subsidising those will lead to higher prices and few extra EV's on the road.

By subsidising new car's the Govt is ensuring that there will be a bigger future pool of used cars for poor people to buy.

wellygary

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#2099347 1-Oct-2018 13:51

tripper1000:

By subsidising new car's the Govt is ensuring that there will be a bigger future pool of used cars for poor people to buy.

But the political and equity optics are terrible,

There are no new EVs in NZ for much less than 60K, so all you are doing is giving a big dollup of govt welfare for those who least need it.....

Sure you can argue that in a few years they will be sold on and it will make more EVs available,

But given that the average of cars in the NZ fleet that were new cars is 12 years, ( its 16 for used) its gonna take a fair while to filter through in any major way.... if ever....

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#2099349 1-Oct-2018 13:55

wellygary:

But the political and equity optics are terrible,

Well, what do you suggest?

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

wellygary

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#2099417 1-Oct-2018 14:27

SaltyNZ:

wellygary:

But the political and equity optics are terrible,

Well, what do you suggest?

There are no easy options...

Its a question of tradeoffs, but any policy that is focussed on consumer purchases is going to be a minefield...

Any disencentives are going to impact low income single car users , ie higher fuel prices, higher fees for poor fuel economy vehicles,

while any incentives are likely to be taken up by high income multiple car users, - subsidies or "feebates" for new EVs, reductions in RUC etc

A 2018 US study concluded pretty much all the Federal subsidies went to the top 50% of households, (with 78% being households with double the average income)

https://www.pacificresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CarSubsidies_final_web.pdf

(granted the study's publishers are hard core libertarians, but the numbers are fairly clear)

There is a view that you could look at incentivising corporate fleet purchases, (which tend to have a much faster turn over than the private fleet).. and you could do its by increasing depreciation rates... or reducing FBT on EVs to encourage private use of corporate vehicles,

Or the Govt could look at bulk buying for the Government fleet, however recent analyses show departments/ministries are reluctant to buy EVs

https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/focusonpolitics/audio/2018653534/documents-show-government-reluctance-on-ev-pledge-focus-on-politics-13-july-2018

I'm guessing the CFOs cant make the sums add up ....

Without having a heavy system of "voluntary charges" such as Road tolls/congestion charges that can be waived as incentives, the only levers government can pull are the price of the vehicle... - although if the Govt had not removed RUC, I suspect take up would be significantly lower than it is now...

But simply giving money to consumers to assist purchasing new EVS will likely end up being really unfair......- unless you simply look at bulk buying 2nd hand leafs, but again Japan/UK supply becomes are limitation or excluding high value "luxury cars" over 100K or the like....

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tripper1000

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#2099466 1-Oct-2018 14:56

wellygary:

But the political and equity optics are terrible....

Environmentalism is a luxury for many people and while subsidies on EV's would certainly benefit the "rich" in the first instance, they also benefit the 2nd hand buyers in the second instance. But the ultimate goal of EV subsidies is not the benefit the rich or the poor, it is an environmental subsidy and perhaps and energy security strategic investment.

If you think subsidising the "rich" is unfair, the big green monster is getting the better of your judgment. The "rich" peoples hand-me-downs become affordable cars for those of more moderate means. The faster "rich" people buy and replace their cars, the sooner ordinary people can afford the same cars.

All car's ultimately come new from a factory. Someone has to buy them new and suffer the depreciation before they become affordable for the masses. You can't make a bunch of factory new cheap used cars (??!%^&). This is why the subsidies overseas are all on new cars.

wellygary

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#2099484 1-Oct-2018 15:14

tripper1000:

If you think subsidising the "rich" is unfair, the big green monster is getting the better of your judgment. The "rich" peoples hand-me-downs become affordable cars for those of more moderate means. The faster "rich" people buy and replace their cars, the sooner ordinary people can afford the same cars.

But why does this model only exist in the vehicle market when ordinary people have to wait for "rich" people to be finished with new things so people of moderate means can afford them... Ordinary people don't end up waiting around for second hand houses to live in, they rent....

So how about the Government got into the long term consumer car rental market (where they currently isn't any major players- the only ones I know are commercial lease operators...)

The government goes and buys 5000 new EVs a year for , and rents them on a ballot system (just like kiwibuild) - The government wears the cost of depreciation, anyone can sign up to lease a govt EV .... seems to tick all the boxes, after 5 years it sells them on.

tripper1000

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#2099514 1-Oct-2018 16:02

wellygary:

But why does this model only exist in the vehicle market when ordinary people have to wait for "rich" people to be finished with new things so people of moderate means can afford them... Ordinary people don't end up waiting around for second hand houses to live in, they rent....

So how about the Government got into the long term consumer car rental market (where they currently isn't any major players- the only ones I know are commercial lease operators...)

The government goes and buys 5000 new EVs a year for , and rents them on a ballot system (just like kiwibuild) - The government wears the cost of depreciation, anyone can sign up to lease a govt EV .... seems to tick all the boxes, after 5 years it sells them on.

Houses don't generally depreciate so houses are not a good comparison.

There are plenty of commercial lease companies around. I reckon they'll lease to individuals if asked - it's just not a popular concept in NZ where you can buy dirt cheap used imports.

Ultimately social cars = buses and trains, so the government is not going to issue out a balloted fleet of cars soviet style.

MarkH67

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#2099519 1-Oct-2018 16:18

tripper1000:

By subsidising new car's the Govt is ensuring that there will be a bigger future pool of used cars for poor people to buy.

It's not just about increasing the pool of used cars, we can gain used cars by buying in 2nd hand Japanese imports. Part of the idea of subsidising EVs is to get more of them on the road, which leads to improvements in the infrastructure, which helps out the people that buy 10-year-old Japanese imports of EVs as much as those that have a brand new Jaguar I-Pace. The more EVs on the road, the more support for EVs and the more people accept them as a popular option.

We are already seeing more charging stations being put in as there are more EVs driving around, things are improving. Subsidies done well would increase the rate that things improve by.

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