Tesla Model 3 News and Discussion

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#2383167 31-Dec-2019 00:29

To Talkiet: I hear you and there probably won't be an EV around for a while that will satisfy your use case (given that it's absolutely necessary to have a car that can go 500 km while towing).

Mind you, depending on what you are hauling and where you are going, I am guessing you might have a hard time reaching 500 KM in your SUV as well, but I will give you that tanking is probably quicker.

That said, most people don't have that kind of use case for their car. On average people drive about 12,000 KM a year in NZ. If we pretend people only drive 5 days a week (260 days a year), that means the average distance a day is 46 KM. Which again means that the average Kiwi could buy a cheap Leaf and be OK most of the time.

My experience is that you might want more than ~100 KM range to not have to deal with range anxiety fairly regularly. But personally a car with 300 KM range would do me fine, even for longer trips in NZ.

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#2383168 31-Dec-2019 00:50

Shouldn't the discussion of the last few pages be taken to the main EV thread? Given the title, I thought this is meant to be a discussion about the Model 3, not the affordability of EVs or how they need to be able to tow the length of the country against a head wind at full speed and only need to stop for half a minute before returning.

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#2383171 31-Dec-2019 04:24

Well still loving my 3, it was also $66,000 cheaper than the bmw equivalent so there you go.

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#2383176 31-Dec-2019 07:34

Talkiet:

RobDickinson: 500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.

I added this in the hope that it would circumvent that sort of comment - "Of course, it's not an issue for everyone... I would never try and tell anyone else what they need or that their requirements are invalid."

In any case, while I don't do it every weekend, I do several times a year chase around and spectate rallies (not always towing)... That's often 500km+ with often JUST enough time to splash in some extra gas. We stop in the middle of forests and fields for hours, not at a convenient supercharger.

Not everyone uses a car just to go from A to B in a well planned out, time insensitive fashion.

Again, any proposition or argument that ignores real world, genuine use cases and then marginalises them when brought up is a bad proposition or argument.

YES, I could hire a petrol car for the several times a year I was to go chasing rallies, and I know any appeal I make to the price of that will be shot down by claiming that I'd save more over the rest of the year - but I don't have to... The fact is that currently there's no electric vehicle that I could use year round so I either have multiple road cars or have the hassle of renting every time I want to do something that an EV can't do.

I wouldn't dream of telling someone that an EV wouldn't suit them if they had made a considered decision that it would - why do EVangelists not extend that courtesy in return?

Cheers - N

Exactly right on all accounts. Every time there is a statement that shows an EV isn't suitable is met by a barrage of replies, making them out to be. Making those of us as negative, anti EV, when Im sure for the vast majority of us, an EV would be great. I did two trips recently, ChCh to Invercargill, and ChCh to Dunedin and back same day. Inverses, stopped at Ashburton for gas, 10 minutes. Stopped at Timaru for lunch, 30 minutes, dont want to leave the car way down the road and possibly have to wait for the other cars, then walk all the way back. Stopped at a park for 10 minutes so the wife and mum in aw can have a leg stretch, no charger there. Stopped at Dunedin for a quick bite in town, no charger there, again Id need to plan, walk to restaurant, walk back, and assume its free for me. Dunners, a quick trip, but a morning tea stop at Timaru, no charger there unless I make it a long morning tea. On the way back, stopped at Moeraki to see the step dad for an hour, maybe I can stop at Hampden, and spend an hour walking back to Moeraki? Had a 10 minute rest beard at Caroline Bay at the waterfront no charger there.

Not all of us want to mess around with a longish drive and have to be stuck for extended periods, and hope a charger is free. Maybe I could buy a $150,000 for those trips? Why should I hire a car?

Now, our main car (I took my wee golf car, a Fit on the Dunners trip) spends most of its time around town, a perfect use case for an EV. But I dont really want to buy an 80k Kona as an example,e when the ICE Kona is 40k. I dont what to "Hey buy an old Leaf instead" as has been mentioned over and over.

When an EV is better priced, has better range, and chargers are everywhere AND in volume, then they are worth a look. Moreover, who wants to expend more money to have two cars when they only need one, to cover the shortfalls?

In my circle of friends and acquaintances, there is a lot of interest in hybrids. A lot, many have them now. They reduce emissions, are well priced, new, yet here, if you mention a hybrid you get bashed.

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#2383177 31-Dec-2019 07:41

Linuxluver:Now add up the fuel and maintenance cost for your V8 SUV over the next 5 years and add that to the price.

The EV won't cost much more than that.

I believe the petrol equivalent of an EV is about 30c per litre. The RUC when applied EV's will be about 70c, so thats about $1 per litre. That just over half of NPD's recent 91 price and just under half of 95, these being the common fuels for the many small to medium cars around. Yes, a lovely saving, but for my Kona example, I need $40,000 to be recouped. Im not a taxi operator or a train, I mainly potter around town, thats a lot of miles to recoup

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#2383178 31-Dec-2019 07:51

Linuxluver:

That may be true today. But if you understood how serious climate change is now - rapidly accelerating - you might be willing to compromise your lifestyle choices a little so you don't wreck the world for your kids.

We've compromised. It's serious. Aussie is learning the hard way. We've been lucky so far.

Fully agree. BUT, the barriers mean that the numbers of EVs saving the world, in NZ, are miniscule. That in itself means that EVs will not help much to help climate change. There are PLENTY of us who would love one, but the barriers mean they are niche. Who is to blame? Neil for not spending 200k for the 34k car he wanted?

Why is a standard car such as a Kona so expensive compared to the ICE version? A modern ICE engine and transmission are not cheap they are very expensive. An EV has no transmission. The engine has 20 moving parts, that must be a huge saving. The batteries yes they are expensive. Are they $40000 a set? $30000? I dont think so from what Ive read in these threads.If its like the VCR example, or DVD Writers, circa $2500 new, they will come down. Then we can talk. Clearly manufacturers are keeping the price up to R+D, so CC is no issue for them. As production is low, sales are low, and all taken up, so no incentive to reduce prices in a hurry.Thats the blame.

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#2383179 31-Dec-2019 07:54

Risking bringing this thread back closer to its actual purpose (totally agree this wider argument happening over the last few pages should sit in the general EV thread - the respective titles kinda give it away)...

Has there been much discussion here on GZ on the Model Y, and I just have missed it? Is anyone going to start a dedicated thread, or will it be merged with this one?

Has there been any talk as to when this may reach NZ or be available for preorders?

While the 3 would never work for me, given it’s simply too small, the considerably larger boot of the Y (three times larger) means it may be more of a possibility. I have been looking to hybrids for my next car (Camry or Outlander PHEV), given the lack of relatively affordable decently sized EVs, but the Y could be an option. (I like to pipe dream: it’ll be over my budget, of course, but a Lotto win may occur before car replacement time!)

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#2383185 31-Dec-2019 08:31

jonathan18:

Risking bringing this thread back closer to its actual purpose (totally agree this wider argument happening over the last few pages should sit in the general EV thread - the respective titles kinda give it away)...

Has there been much discussion here on GZ on the Model Y, and I just have missed it? Is anyone going to start a dedicated thread, or will it be merged with this one?

Has there been any talk as to when this may reach NZ or be available for preorders?

While the 3 would never work for me, given it’s simply too small, the considerably larger boot of the Y (three times larger) means it may be more of a possibility. I have been looking to hybrids for my next car (Camry or Outlander PHEV), given the lack of relatively affordable decently sized EVs, but the Y could be an option. (I like to pipe dream: it’ll be over my budget, of course, but a Lotto win may occur before car replacement time!)

Order book still not open for outside USA.

There are heaps (hundreds it seems) of preprod model Ys out testing in USA, Panasonic is ramping to 54GWh batteries at GF1 and I am guessing theres at least 1 line setup at Fremont for the Y already.

I'm expecting customer model Ys late Q1 or early Q2 in USA. Going on that we could see them in NZ towards the end of 2021

I had an Outlander PHEV before the 3 and its a decent car if your daily drive is covered (or mostly) by the EV side, its not bad when the petrol engine is in use either but thats its biggest disappointment.

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#2383189 31-Dec-2019 09:03

I see that the Australian store has an available inventory of 2020 model 3's with the darker wheels as well as the 2019's.. nice.. NZ store is down to a couple of 2019's (only) now.

I can also see the model Y's are available to order if you're in a LHD country so RHD's are going to be a while, as Rob says above..

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#2383193 31-Dec-2019 09:14

We are up to around 700 registered in NZ putting it as the most popular new EV sold I think.

Holland registered over 1000 in a single day..

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#2383215 31-Dec-2019 10:13

Crysoganus:
I see that the Australian store has an available inventory of 2020 model 3's with the darker wheels as well as the 2019's.. nice.. NZ store is down to a couple of 2019's (only) now.

I can also see the model Y's are available to order if you're in a LHD country so RHD's are going to be a while, as Rob says above..

Yeah there's was about 7 in inventory in NZ a few weeks ago so they've been selling alright. The one I got was actually an inventory stock.

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#2383305 31-Dec-2019 14:09

tdgeek:

Granthod:

This article provides a useful analysis of the likely trajectory of EV sales and the impact this has on other car makers, and on oil pricing and production. We could be in for a very bumpy decade, geopolitically speaking...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond

I can't see this Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026

Its ALL about production. Can EVs be produced in the same numbers that ICE is now? In 5 years?

The growth curve is already exponential.....so 5 years is reasonable. The EU is mandating change by law....so all those automakers (and anyone who wants to sell vehicles there) have to comply. Plus Tesla is driving the same change via the market itself....so pincer movement.

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#2383306 31-Dec-2019 14:13

Talkiet:

RobDickinson: 500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.

I added this in the hope that it would circumvent that sort of comment - "Of course, it's not an issue for everyone... I would never try and tell anyone else what they need or that their requirements are invalid."

In any case, while I don't do it every weekend, I do several times a year chase around and spectate rallies (not always towing)... That's often 500km+ with often JUST enough time to splash in some extra gas. We stop in the middle of forests and fields for hours, not at a convenient supercharger.

Not everyone uses a car just to go from A to B in a well planned out, time insensitive fashion.

I suggest then not buying a vehicle unsuited to your needs? Its not had or complicated. You are a massive outlier by the looks, even a leaf would suit most people most of the time.

Certainly a model 3 wouldnt ever be suitable so why is this here?

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#2383311 31-Dec-2019 14:21

jarledb:

[snip] On average people drive about 12,000 KM a year in NZ. If we pretend people only drive 5 days a week (260 days a year), that means the average distance a day is 46 KM. Which again means that the average Kiwi could buy a cheap Leaf and be OK most of the time.[snip]

This is a great example of stats being misleading (and YES I acknowledge you included 'most of the time')

I might live in Rolleston and 5 days a week commute to Chch central and back (Let's say 60k return).... The Leaf is looking great so far...

But then every weekend I drive down to Ashburton to pick up my kids and drive back to Chch , then drop them back off in Ashburton. Now this isn't me ( don't have kids for a start) but it's not hard to imagine a regular once a week/fortnight trip that is perhaps 300km and doesn't involve being able to charge during the trip... (Rolly-Ashburton-Chch-Ashburton-Rolly is a little over 300km)....

However the daily average is still only (5*60)+320=620km in a week (I stay in on Sunday)... That's an average of just 88.5km per day!!!

Brilliant. I'll buy a Leaf.

Oh, wait - I'm still having one day a week where the car won't work for me. But the average said it was ok!

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#2383313 31-Dec-2019 14:23

Talkiet:

jarledb:

[snip] On average people drive about 12,000 KM a year in NZ. If we pretend people only drive 5 days a week (260 days a year), that means the average distance a day is 46 KM. Which again means that the average Kiwi could buy a cheap Leaf and be OK most of the time.[snip]

This is a great example of stats being misleading (and YES I acknowledge you included 'most of the time')

I might live in Rolleston and 5 days a week commute to Chch central and back (Let's say 60k return).... The Leaf is looking great so far...

But then every weekend I drive down to Ashburton to pick up my kids and drive back to Chch , then drop them back off in Ashburton. Now this isn't me ( don't have kids for a start) but it's not hard to imagine a regular once a week/fortnight trip that is perhaps 300km and doesn't involve being able to charge during the trip... (Rolly-Ashburton-Chch-Ashburton-Rolly is a little over 300km)....

However the daily average is still only (5*60)+320=620km in a week (I stay in on Sunday)... That's an average of just 88.5km per day!!!

Brilliant. I'll buy a Leaf.

Oh, wait - I'm still having one day a week where the car won't work for me. But the average said it was ok!

N.

Most NZ households have 2 cars so 1 being a leaf in this situation would be fine.

Again if it isnt then do the intelligent thing and dont buy a leaf. I didnt.

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