EV (electric vehicle) News and Discussion

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › EV (electric vehicle) News and Discussion

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1526 posts

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#2923608 7-Jun-2022 14:26

MikeAqua:

DS248:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/300603785/ford-boss-predicts-ev-price-war-as-costs-drop

"Ford's chief executive says the global auto industry is headed for a huge price war in the coming years as electric vehicle costs drop and multiple companies sell EVs priced around US$25,000 (NZ$38,500)."

Let's hope sooner rather than later!

At that price and with range and fit out comparable to ICEV, it's a no brainer.

The thing I wonder is: When does this become reality?

The price war is a real thing, its not Ford that will be leading it though. A new car in NZ starts at what about $20k up? We'll be seeing EVs under $30k (including rebate) in the next year or so from BYD,MG etc. They exist already in China.

HarmLessSolutions

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#2923609 7-Jun-2022 14:37

MikeAqua:

DS248:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/300603785/ford-boss-predicts-ev-price-war-as-costs-drop

"Ford's chief executive says the global auto industry is headed for a huge price war in the coming years as electric vehicle costs drop and multiple companies sell EVs priced around US$25,000 (NZ$38,500)."

Let's hope sooner rather than later!

At that price and with range and fit out comparable to ICEV, it's a no brainer.

The thing I wonder is: When does this become reality? If lithium supply is constrained then, absent alternate battery tech, EV supply remains constrained. We wouldn't expect discounting in a supply constrained market, absent some govt interference.

The factors involved in EV/ICE price parity well explained in this article. Short answer 2025-2028 depending on who you believe.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-05-25/hyperdrive-daily-the-ev-price-gap-narrows

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

RobDickinson

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#2923610 7-Jun-2022 14:39

Note its not in legacy auto's favour to rush price parity.

Whenever they 'achieve' it all that happens is no one buys their fossil cars. They can afford for that to happen.

HarmLessSolutions

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#2923612 7-Jun-2022 14:59

RobDickinson:

Note its not in legacy auto's favour to rush price parity.

Whenever they 'achieve' it all that happens is no one buys their fossil cars. They can afford for that to happen.

Also legacy automakers have a conflict within their own brand if their own EVs are not only near equal in price to their ICE vehicles but have significantly less maintenance requirements. The change to EV dominance will happen at pace over the next few years and like the oil companies the legacy carmakers are at real risk of holding stranded assets.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

RobDickinson

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#2923613 7-Jun-2022 15:03

No one has yet explained to me how these companies survive this changeover, at what percentage does price parity happen, I would think 20-30% of your production is BEV or so?

Who is buying your 50-70% of fossil burning legacy money pits that will be worth nothing used?

RobDickinson

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#2923618 7-Jun-2022 15:15

https://charge.net.nz/news/chargenet-ramps-up-expansion-plans/

Looks like Z/Openloop is kicking Chargenet off a handful of sites to replace them with their own chargers - which require prepaying $10 or more before you can use them.

They mostly have alternatives already installed, fyi the chc one is incorrect, Pack+save is AC only, New World Moorhouse has 50/25kw DC.

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HarmLessSolutions

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#2923619 7-Jun-2022 15:16

RobDickinson:

No one has yet explained to me how these companies survive this changeover, at what percentage does price parity happen, I would think 20-30% of your production is BEV or so?

Who is buying your 50-70% of fossil burning legacy money pits that will be worth nothing used?

It's not a pretty scenario. Check out videos by the likes of Tony Seba or Prof. Ray Wills. Their view of the future is very enlightening and in the case of Tony Seba at least has been proved accurate, if not conservative, year by year.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

RobDickinson

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#2923622 7-Jun-2022 15:19

Yep well up on my Tony Seba! I am sure a lot of Auto execs are too. Most of the German manufacturers had change of top level manager recently because of this impending mess, Diess is still grafting away hard but with both hands tied behind his back , half the company doesnt want to change.

kingdragonfly

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#2923668 7-Jun-2022 18:10

HarmLessSolutions: It's not a pretty scenario. Check out videos by the likes of Tony Seba or Prof. Ray Wills. Their view of the future is very enlightening and in the case of Tony Seba at least has been proved accurate, if not conservative, year by year.

While I love your post, listening to that video was painful, because a good number of the technology he hasn't happened yet.

In particular, Dyson spent $600 million without building one. I remember the $1,000 claim about an open-source autonomous driving.

The further he looked into the future the more optimistic he got.

Though he was a little bit correct about the postage stamp LIDAR, though it's only to 5 meters.

Granted, "no one expects the Spanish Inquisition", in other words COVID, the shipping crisis, and the Ukrainian war.

GV27

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#2923713 7-Jun-2022 19:37

Dyson's case is uh... interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakti3

everettpsycho

668 posts

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#2923727 7-Jun-2022 20:49

HarmLessSolutions:
RobDickinson:

Note its not in legacy auto's favour to rush price parity.

Whenever they 'achieve' it all that happens is no one buys their fossil cars. They can afford for that to happen.

Also legacy automakers have a conflict within their own brand if their own EVs are not only near equal in price to their ICE vehicles but have significantly less maintenance requirements. The change to EV dominance will happen at pace over the next few years and like the oil companies the legacy carmakers are at real risk of holding stranded assets.

Hasn't BP said in the UK they are now making almost as much profit on ev chargers as they do from petrol sales. I'm surprised more of the petrol giants haven't gone all in and now we see Z going the opposite route and pulling the chargers out.

It'll be an interesting transition from ICE to EV for sure, ford pretty much said they need to recoup the servicing loss and will be moving to selling services for your vehicle on a per km or monthly fee, which could end up in a lot more profit in the long term and mean they can sell the cars to break even or potentially a loss. This will mean upsetting dealerships though who rely on that service contract for the warranty period. As long as the base model car before services is a usable product that hasn't had all the life sucked out if it unless you pay up each month.

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gzt

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#2923735 7-Jun-2022 21:03

Warranty inspection and tweaking will not go away. Ford already announced plans to go 100% direct off the web for pure EV sales in the near future.

HarmLessSolutions

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#2923738 7-Jun-2022 21:09

gzt: Warranty inspection and tweaking will not go away. Ford already announced plans to go 100% direct off the web for pure EV sales in the near future.

That will be yet another internal conflict for legacy carmakers. Their franchisees won't take that hit on their sales structure lying down, and that's from a relative that works within Ford UK in their design hierarchy.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

Batman

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#2923743 7-Jun-2022 21:41

HarmLessSolutions:

gzt: Warranty inspection and tweaking will not go away. Ford already announced plans to go 100% direct off the web for pure EV sales in the near future.
That will be yet another internal conflict for legacy carmakers. Their franchisees won't take that hit on their sales structure lying down, and that's from a relative that works within Ford UK in their design hierarchy.

Toyota has done it, BMW are doing it, Mercedes are doing it.

Technofreak

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#2923767 7-Jun-2022 23:08

An interesting take on BEV's with respect to combating climate change.

https://youtu.be/S1E8SQde5rk

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