EV (electric vehicle) News & Discussion

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#2961523 31-Aug-2022 12:52

SaltyNZ:

Yeah, "later this year" is what they were saying all along so nothing new there. I suppose at least if they are still saying "later this year" then that tells me what I most need to know: should I hang onto the Leaf or flick it off for $5K and do something else. Where we are right now - top of a steep hill in both directions on SH1 - it is essentially undriveable so I either need to get a new battery or get rid of it. It's just slowly decaying sitting unused outside otherwise.

The longer EVs Enhanced take to bring this to market the higher the risk of that market being eroded by reducing EV prices. The price structure they are suggesting (1/3 price of a new Leaf) is around $20K so a significant reinvestment on an older Leaf and harder to justify as the cost of new EVs creep closer to $40K. My earlier comment regarding the potential for V2G is where we're justifying that cost into a 10 year old Leaf but even a ~60%SOH 24kWh Leaf has enough capacity to run a home's demands if it was just parked and treated as a Powerwall on wheels with negligible vehicle potential.

I'm unaware of anyone doing V2G in NZ so far but where there's an opportunity sooner or later someone will do so. First adopters will be in for 'breaking the ice' so far as regulatory matters are concerned but kiwis are pretty good at making use of what's on hand so it will happen.

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#2961525 31-Aug-2022 12:55

HarmLessSolutions:

The longer EVs Enhanced take to bring this to market the higher the risk of that market being eroded by reducing EV prices. The price structure they are suggesting (1/3 price of a new Leaf) is around $20K so a significant reinvestment on an older Leaf and harder to justify as the cost of new EVs creep closer to $40K.

Yeah I was talking to my wife about it this morning as we drove in - with second-hand MG ZS EVs now starting to appear on the market, or older ioniqs ... the case for keeping a Leaf with 150,000km on it and putting a $20K battery in it gets weaker by the day.

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tripper1000

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#2961526 31-Aug-2022 12:58

V2G - was a great idea in theory but has anyone ever actually used that in anger? Certainly not in NZ because there is a much smaller difference between on and off-peak electricity pricing here that overseas. I've seen several power walls made from retired Leaf batteries but never V2G. Decent Leaf batteries are fragile enough without pounding them by using them as a power-wall.

I wish EV's Enhanced well with their blade battery (I really hope they succeed), but many companies (including other N.Z. companies) have set out to build replacement leaf batteries and never quite gotten there. I wonder about trying to sell expensive upgrades to the owners of the most modest EV around - I can't help but remember when everyone wanted English conversions for their Leaf head-decks but when it came to shelling out $500 barely anyone wanted it anymore.

Scott3

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#2961544 31-Aug-2022 14:06

SaltyNZ:

Yeah, "later this year" is what they were saying all along so nothing new there. I suppose at least if they are still saying "later this year" then that tells me what I most need to know: should I hang onto the Leaf or flick it off for $5K and do something else. Where we are right now - top of a steep hill in both directions on SH1 - it is essentially undriveable so I either need to get a new battery or get rid of it. It's just slowly decaying sitting unused outside otherwise.

I would say, flick it, and get something that suits your needs.

There is nothing to say that EV Enhanced's timeline won't be delayed.

Even if they do start to deliver packs in the next few months, their production rate, combined with your place in the queue could see a lot more waiting time.

And of course, pricing has yet to be announced. Could well be unworkable for lower spec leaf's.

Scott3

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#2961552 31-Aug-2022 14:14

shk292:

Used EVs seem to be priced as if no new ones are available - I test drove an ex-demo 2021 Kia Niro last week, which the dealer was asking $60k for. When I pointed out that a brand new, 2022 EV would be cheaper after the rebate, he said they could do a deal. I think the Atto 3 is a game changer in terms of specs and value.

Even within Kia itself, recent pricing is a bit of a game changer. Old Niro EV had 2 out of 3 trims above $80k

They now have the niro plus (based on the last gen niro, but stretched and made taller, targeted at the taxi / ride-hail industry), at cira $65k before rebate.

An the new shape at $68k & 74k +ORC before rebate.

Sure some premium for a car available to take home today can be justified, but I don't think it is massive, especially it is last generation products on offer.

Scott3

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#2961557 31-Aug-2022 14:27

GV27:

I mean I want an E+, I'd use the range and extra AC charging capability a lot so I could almost justify it, but it's almost bang on the Atto 3 rate if I do all the work importing it myself.

But it's still a very old tech, with a battery prone to degradation (although far more hardy than the 40kwh) and an obsolete charging standard that you can't really take advantage of here and will need to be swapped out for CCS at some point. The justification for that kind of premium over a newer car with a bigger screen and the LFP battery option isn't there, especially given the batteries from EV Enhanced aren't able to be fitted to 62kwh models. So longer term, it is a question mark for sure.

Leaf is a proven, highly reliable car. Our 24kW does really well. Comfortable suspension setup, and quiet on course chip seal. e+ is really powerfull to at 160kW, and WLTP range of 385km beats that of the 320km entry level atto3

Batteries in the 40kWh have held up well (median health of 5 year old cars is about 88%, so just over 2% a year), if 62kWh cars are even better then that is frankly adequate.

I think NZ will keep the current fast charging setup (dual Chademo & CCS) for the foreseeable future. We will still have a decent volume of used EV's and PHEV's with Chademo, and NZ new EV's continue to be sold with that NX300e (the NX300e).

Main issue with the leaf e+ is that it isn't really suitable for multiple big fast charges in the same day (rapidgate), and the general value.

As you say, the value just isn't their based on newly released EV's in NZ. $50k (less 3.5k rebate) for a 2019 e+, same ballpark as a brand spanking Atto3.

Suspect the value of leaf's will drop at the auctions in japan by quite a bit in the next year or so, as the current car supply crunch comes to an end, especially if fuel prices keep dropping.

The Ariya becoming available may result in a surge of nicer leaf's going to the auctions in japan.

everettpsycho

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#2961667 31-Aug-2022 16:43

GV27:
Scott3:

Sharp pricing on the New EV's like the BYD Atto 3, Niro, Niro Plus making buying a used EV less attractive

Cheapest I can get a Leaf E+ out of Japan is roughly what a brand new base Atto 3 would cost me with the full rebate. So there is significant downwards pressure from the new market alone.

Frankly I'm surprised any used E+s are moving at all on our market.

When we got our second leaf a couple of months ago we had exactly this. The old models aren't cheap but if you jump to the 40/62kwh models the price jumps right up to what the byd and mg cost brand new so I don't know who is buying them. Ultimately we went with another older model primarily as we got it to save on petrol costs and couldn't justify double the upfront price for no financial gain in return. I'm still interested in the 16 blade battery but it will come down to price for us. As we are only running 2 leafs now the extended range in one of them would be nice so we can charge one less frequently but also do longer trios for weekends away without worrying about stopping multiple times to make it there.

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Scott3

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#2961709 31-Aug-2022 20:15

40kWh leaf pricing isn't too bad. Several are available just 30k (after rebate if applicable). But of course you are getting a 2017 / 2018 car for that money.

On replacement leaf batteries, While I really hope there is success in this area, there are a number of significant barriers.

It's going to be expensive. The EV enhanced pricing for the 16 blade green upgrade (old battery kept) is 1/3rd of the price of a new leaf, given that for a 40kWh that is $61,990, we could expect $20,600. It's mention that price will vary depending on what battery is traded, so price could go out for a 55% health 24kWh pack...

The high price makes it a pretty niche offering.

Take say a 2011 leaf with 150,000km say a residual value of $6400, spend $20,600 on the battery upgrade, and you now have $27,000 in it. Given you can buy a new shape 40kWh for just under the $30k mark, one would need to really value the advantages of the blade battery pack (long life due to battery chemistry, faster fast charging (with no issues of overheating). Good chance that LFP pack will outlast the rest of the car.

Personally I would be taking the newer car with nicer styling, 110kW and a bigger boot. There is a 2018 asking $33k, with leather seats, Bose audio, tow-bar etc.

Also would need some careful conversations with insurers, to get them to understand that you want to insure a $6k car with a $21k battery upgrade... And careful marketing when you come to sell it, as to justify an asking price 4x what the car used to be worth.

On why the price of the battery upgrade is going to be high:

Global shortage of battery manufacture capacity.
Above restricting the number of EV's can be sold, so automakers want every battery they can get their hands on to go into a new EV.
New EV's are at a competitive advantage over replacement battery packs.
- New EV's get a $8650 subsidy. New pack to keep an existing EV as more than a local use only car gets nothing. (similar in many other countries)
- Once the clean car standard kicks in, automakers with a too dirty fleet will get fined. Every EV they bring into the country helps their average, and allows them to avoid fines or to sell credits. Will mean automakers are willing to sell EV's at lower margins.

All of the above is kinda sad. It absolutely makes environmental sense to swap out the pack on a 2011 leaf with 200,000km + of life left in the body, than it does to scrap it and get a whole new car.

SaltyNZ

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#2961716 31-Aug-2022 21:03

Well, have just emailed the owner of that $38K MG on TradeMe in Papakura, as well as the $41K one in Christchurch (would need to be shipped to Auckland, but it's a dealer so they can organise). We are going to want a decent second car shortly - son's about to get his learner's; the Leaf is no shape for a learner to drive, and the other car is an old Honda Odyssey which can't be locked, needs the brakes fixed, and even if I did fix the brakes, a teenager isn't going to be earning enough to pay for fuel for it.

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Scott3

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#2961721 31-Aug-2022 21:32

SaltyNZ:

Well, have just emailed the owner of that $38K MG on TradeMe in Papakura, as well as the $41K one in Christchurch (would need to be shipped to Auckland, but it's a dealer so they can organise). We are going to want a decent second car shortly - son's about to get his learner's; the Leaf is no shape for a learner to drive, and the other car is an old Honda Odyssey which can't be locked, needs the brakes fixed, and even if I did fix the brakes, a teenager isn't going to be earning enough to pay for fuel for it.

When are the new shape ones turning up?

If it is soon, it is hard to see value in a $38 - $41k used car, given a brand spanking new one is $41,340 after rebate ($49990 - 8650), especially when the latter is post facelift.

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#2961725 31-Aug-2022 22:11

Scott3:

When are the new shape ones turning up?

If it is soon, it is hard to see value in a $38 - $41k used car, given a brand spanking new one is $41,340 after rebate ($49990 - 8650), especially when the latter is post facelift.

Excellent point; not sure. Will have to call them and find out.

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Batman

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#2961741 1-Sep-2022 06:57

SaltyNZ:

the Leaf is no shape for a learner to drive

in the same situation soon, why is leaf not a good learner car?

SaltyNZ

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#2961751 1-Sep-2022 08:15

Batman:

SaltyNZ:

the Leaf is no shape for a learner to drive

in the same situation soon, why is leaf not a good learner car?

Oh, Leafs generally are fine, but ours has such a knackered battery that the last time I drove it the 14km from our house to Warkworth and back starting with a full charge, the turtle light came on as I gave it a bit more power to go uphill on the viaduct, and went off again when I backed off the power. I do not think it is responsible to put a learner driver into a car which has a high chance of just ... not going ... when they expect it to. That would bad enough for an experienced driver, but we live on SH1 so if you can't be decisive you're going to get killed.

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GV27

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#2961832 1-Sep-2022 10:47

Scott3:

When are the new shape ones turning up?

If it is soon, it is hard to see value in a $38 - $41k used car, given a brand spanking new one is $41,340 after rebate ($49990 - 8650), especially when the latter is post facelift.

I may have seen a bunch of them on a truck on Great South Road yesterday. Can't mistake that front end for anything else.

SaltyNZ

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#2961839 1-Sep-2022 10:52

GV27:

I may have seen a bunch of them on a truck on Great South Road yesterday. Can't mistake that front end for anything else.

I called Tristram MG this morning; they reckon Feb-Mar most likely for the new model, but maybe a bit earlier depending on shipping.

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