America's Cup 2021 Defense

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#2672392 12-Mar-2021 18:01

So if the first boat in always wins start and boat that wins start wins, who wins the cup ?
If its first to 6 and Italy get first bite at a favored start ( First in ) each day ?

I'm a bit lost on this.

Does this go forever until someone breaks the above and wins the less favored start ?

Looks like its calm for next few days unless this keeps going into more violent weather.

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#2672394 12-Mar-2021 18:07

ezbee:

So if the first boat in always wins start and boat that wins start wins, who wins the cup ?
If its first to 6 and Italy get first bite at a favored start ( First in ) each day ?

I'm a bit lost on this.

Does this go forever until someone breaks the above and wins the less favored start ?

Looks like its calm for next few days unless this keeps going into more violent weather.

It wasn't like that one day 1. It looks likely to come down to mistakes.

First to 7 by the way, best of 13.

tdgeek

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#2672509 12-Mar-2021 21:38

ezbee:

So if the first boat in always wins start and boat that wins start wins, who wins the cup ?
If its first to 6 and Italy get first bite at a favored start ( First in ) each day ?

I'm a bit lost on this.

Does this go forever until someone breaks the above and wins the less favored start ?

Looks like its calm for next few days unless this keeps going into more violent weather.

I was out but wasnt aware and watched the YT coverage a bit later, intense alright.

My take, (IANAS :) ) is LR is more efficient, can race slower but more direct.

Day 1 we won the start and won by 31 seconds

we lost the start and lost by 7 seconds, not bad that

Day 2 we lost the start and lost by not that much (I forgot)

we won the start and won by 58 seconds.

So, we are a better boat and this is in light airs, what favours Luna Rossa. We sail faster but they sail tighter (towards the next gates) so they seem more efficient. Race 3 I recall we owned all the metrics except distance sailed and we sailed much further

Given that each boat gets port start (advantage) each day, its likely that the starts will be shared. As Mr H stated, mistakes matter. If you had port start and messed that up, you probably wont come back from that.

But we certainly seem the better boat, lose by less, win by more. Weekend is light air.

After race 3, it seems that LR was too solid and consistent. Now, its seems sure that we are faster and better, but you still have to win the start. BUT, race 4 may have shown that we can try to keep seperate, tack less and thats possibly a passing lane.

Still nail biting though.

Oblivian

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#2672527 12-Mar-2021 22:16

ezbee:

So if the first boat in always wins start and boat that wins start wins, who wins the cup ?
If its first to 6 and Italy get first bite at a favored start ( First in ) each day ?

I'm a bit lost on this.

Does this go forever until someone breaks the above and wins the less favored start ?

Looks like its calm for next few days unless this keeps going into more violent weather.

Getting confused with the terminology. (and as explained ^^, first to 7 of 13 matches)

'Win the start' is a term defined to who is perceived to 'win' the chess match at the T-2min mark when they have to enter the box, and the opponent within 10 seconds of that from opposite directions. The idea is the track is setup so neither is advantaged. But slight wind shifts make 1 side more favorable - and the battle is on.

So they spin around each other up until then, trying to either force the other in early. (penalty) or enter early and get the windward advantage where you can force errors on your opponent or get the speed to take the cross the line advantage.

As seen, if they pick you as the better starter, it doesn't always mean a match win. But it does come with the bonus of less tacks, straighter run and so on. So they soon come up with the idea because these are so close that the start 'winner' usually leads it out. But you can still cock it up, hit the water and other boat sails by even though split.

1. The pre-starts. This America’s Cup has traditional upwind starts. Each team must enter the start box from opposite ends at the two minute mark. They jostle for the best position with the aim of hitting the line powered up exactly as the clock counts down to 0:00 – and in front of their opponent.

To get an advantage, each team will look to dodge, weave, box out their opponent, put a penalty put on them, or execute some other perfectly legitimate but edge-of-the-seat manoeuvre. These minutes can be among the most exciting of a whole race, and may set the tactics and playbook for all that follows so are not to be missed.

Likewise when they get to the marks to round, first to hit an imaginary ring around the mark, gets to dictate which direction they go, and may end up making the opponent need to slow down or dodge out of their way for clean air or prevent an overlap penalty.

networkn

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#2672533 12-Mar-2021 22:26

I couldn't watch the second match due to prior commitments, however, the first race LR looked better the whole way along.

I understand but haven't watched, that TNZ got the better start in race 2, but that LR made a mistake (2?) and therefore the race blew out. I know people don't have a crystal ball, however, did it look fairly certain TNZ would have won without the LR mistakes?

I don't have a great feeling of confidence in TNZ after race 3. I don't feel we are great at the starts, even the last AC, we weren't better and made a number of mistakes.

Oblivian

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#2673513 12-Mar-2021 22:52

networkn:

I couldn't watch the second match due to prior commitments, however, the first race LR looked better the whole way along.

I understand but haven't watched, that TNZ got the better start in race 2, but that LR made a mistake (2?) and therefore the race blew out. I know people don't have a crystal ball, however, did it look fairly certain TNZ would have won without the LR mistakes?

I don't have a great feeling of confidence in TNZ after race 3. I don't feel we are great at the starts, even the last AC, we weren't better and made a number of mistakes.

Canter didn't lock in on a Jibe, Which touched them down slightly and dropped them back more than it started with.

The pick-apart point at the thin foils and rudder don't let us pop so easy in the light stuff, where it needs the speed to start taking effect in dropping the drag. While the larger on LR does.

They seem quite well matched. No real top speed difference in the low-mid conditions, just team meshing and handling/errors or ever so slight errors picking a start leg dictating.

There is an ever so slight difference in upwind capabilities. We can churn a bit more angle/VMG out it would seem. Which slowly can chip away 1m at a time and end up 20-40m at each turn.

They will be picking apart our slick marker turns now, seeing they have been using a typical race cat trick of pitching it over and riding high out.

But when you watch R1, we had the tacks and ride almost spot on. They found what they needed to and didn't have to make any extra drag inducing turns to get where they needed to. Just need better start and conditions to allow for the same :)

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#2673515 12-Mar-2021 23:00

networkn:

I couldn't watch the second match due to prior commitments, however, the first race LR looked better the whole way along.

I understand but haven't watched, that TNZ got the better start in race 2, but that LR made a mistake (2?) and therefore the race blew out. I know people don't have a crystal ball, however, did it look fairly certain TNZ would have won without the LR mistakes?

I don't have a great feeling of confidence in TNZ after race 3. I don't feel we are great at the starts, even the last AC, we weren't better and made a number of mistakes.

Both teams are very even in boat speed and sailing quality. They've won 2 starts each and both teams have enough boat speed to stop the others passing without a mistake.

Team NZ look marginally faster and certainly were able to drag race Luna Rossa off the start. Mozzy identified they have some technical differences in the way they tack which they can't really use if they are behind but once ahead can match Luna Rossa in speed out of the tacks.

In this wind range it's going to come down to mistakes to pass unless it's really shifty.

tdgeek

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#2673604 13-Mar-2021 08:15

networkn:

I couldn't watch the second match due to prior commitments, however, the first race LR looked better the whole way along.

I understand but haven't watched, that TNZ got the better start in race 2, but that LR made a mistake (2?) and therefore the race blew out. I know people don't have a crystal ball, however, did it look fairly certain TNZ would have won without the LR mistakes?

I don't have a great feeling of confidence in TNZ after race 3. I don't feel we are great at the starts, even the last AC, we weren't better and made a number of mistakes.

Yes there was a decent error by LR but it was blowing out anyway. Im no expert and ignoring the nuances, when we miss the start and lose we don't lose by much, when we win we win by a lot. Yesterday the winds suited LR. Im very confident we have the faster boat. But if every race is determined by the start, and each day each boat shares the favoured side, whoever "serve gets broken" means thats probably Cup over. I think this weekend is also light winds, here's hoping

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#2673634 13-Mar-2021 09:28

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X83XMogwBI

Nice video about port advantage. His take is that its not a huge advantage, and that TNZ winning their two starts was actually a close run thing

Oblivian

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#2673800 13-Mar-2021 16:34

If you needed any more proof of how screwing up the start (or during) is going to be the deciding factor.

Today was a perfect example. Trying to be tactically smart, doesn't always pay off.

tdgeek

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#2673816 13-Mar-2021 16:49

Yep, that was the first nail. Its clear that TNZ is faster, they quote 3 knots downwind, and upwind the despite bing in dirty air, we hold on. But, if you look at the starts going back to the Christmas Cup, Jimmy is outsailing us. The better skills and the port advantage takes care of the next race most likely. We have smaller foils so we can't go as slow if we need to bleed off time, but thats what we did.

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tdgeek

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#2673871 13-Mar-2021 17:17

Now Jimmy screws it up bigly! Hopefully we can steam away, show the speed advantage.

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#2673874 13-Mar-2021 17:19

Mainsail error by LR, it wasnt twisted up, whatever that means, but simplistically they were ready to gas it but the sail wasnt set right

EDIT Jimmy confirms the start was they hit a quiet patch of wind, thats probably bad luck than bad management

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#2673933 13-Mar-2021 18:23

Another nail biter. Some say TNZ are faster some don't. Hard to know. When LR is in front they race tighter and slower. TNZ have faster speed but they race shallower and thus faster in the water, so hard to know.

When in front LR cover us off on every tack, when TNZ is in front we don't care about LR we race the winds. That probably says a lot. They have to make sure we are in dirty air, we dont need to worry about that.

But, even so, its the starts that are the be all and end all. Losing the start and losing by 18 seconds then winning the start and winning by over 1500m (the graphic went off so unsure of the race margin EDIT 1 minute 41 seconds. ) doesn't add any more points. We lost the start, our error, they lost the start by what appears bad luck. So, that still leaves LR with an advantage, they make less mistakes and seem better on starts.

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#2674006 13-Mar-2021 21:55

I can't see any advantage to either side in these conditions. Both teams have won 3 starts, both teams are sailing with minimal mistakes. Luna Rossa have made as many errors as TNZ.

The starts today were almost identical, both boats hit soft patches and struggled to get up.

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