QZ8501 goes missing Surabaya

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348 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1205397 29-Dec-2014 11:19

Just to reinforce my point about airline safety recently, here's a chart that a friend of mine just shared on facebook. 2014 has been a GOOD year in fact.

gzt

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#1205445 29-Dec-2014 12:36

Denominate that by number of flights and start to see the true story. Even better ; )

frankv

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#1205449 29-Dec-2014 12:45

tardtasticx:
markl:
tardtasticx: This just gives me the absolute shivers.
We've had so many plane crashes and incidents this year, and we all thought it couldn't really get worse. Then bang smack in the middle of the Holiday period another one goes missing.

As I said to my fiancee last night: every time an airliner goes down, it makes the news. Every time an airliner lands safely, you hear nothing. There is nothing to worry about. Statistically speaking, you're far more liklely to die in a car accident than in a plane crash. Are you going to freak out every time someone you know hops in a car? No, of course not. So calm down about air travel too.

I'm not afraid of flying, and I never said I was. I'd love to travel more via plane if I could afford to.

But seeing news like this gives me the shivers because knowing nearly 200 people have most likely died in an instant is just terrifying. All those families and friends have lost loved ones right after Christmas. No one expected another one would happen this year since we've had such bad luck with planes going down (it's probably happened in the past but I don't remember seeing so many go down in such a short amount of time with such mystery surrounding the incidents).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate says 1,240,000 die per year on the roads worldwide. That's 141 in the hour that QZ8501 crashed, and every other hour of the year too. A large number of those would have died in an instant. All those families and friends have lost loved ones right after/on/before Christmas/New Year/Easter/birthday/Mother's Day/Father's Day/whatever.

http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm Since 1996 (8), we haven't had more than 4 plane crashes with 100+ fatalities in any year. This year, we've had 4, including QZ8501. The last year we had 4 was 2006. So this is the worst in 8 years, but not the worst in 19... I guess a slightly worse than average year, depending on how many years you include in your stats.

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#1205651 29-Dec-2014 17:50

nothing found?

so ... the black box is going to run out of batteries again? or is someone going to download the app to hear the pings? why isn't that the first thing you do, hear the pings, instead of spending millions on hundreds of planes helicopters and ships to search for a phantom?

tardtasticx

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#1205693 29-Dec-2014 19:26

frankv:
tardtasticx:
markl:
tardtasticx: This just gives me the absolute shivers.
We've had so many plane crashes and incidents this year, and we all thought it couldn't really get worse. Then bang smack in the middle of the Holiday period another one goes missing.

As I said to my fiancee last night: every time an airliner goes down, it makes the news. Every time an airliner lands safely, you hear nothing. There is nothing to worry about. Statistically speaking, you're far more liklely to die in a car accident than in a plane crash. Are you going to freak out every time someone you know hops in a car? No, of course not. So calm down about air travel too.

I'm not afraid of flying, and I never said I was. I'd love to travel more via plane if I could afford to.

But seeing news like this gives me the shivers because knowing nearly 200 people have most likely died in an instant is just terrifying. All those families and friends have lost loved ones right after Christmas. No one expected another one would happen this year since we've had such bad luck with planes going down (it's probably happened in the past but I don't remember seeing so many go down in such a short amount of time with such mystery surrounding the incidents).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate says 1,240,000 die per year on the roads worldwide. That's 141 in the hour that QZ8501 crashed, and every other hour of the year too. A large number of those would have died in an instant. All those families and friends have lost loved ones right after/on/before Christmas/New Year/Easter/birthday/Mother's Day/Father's Day/whatever.

http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm Since 1996 (8), we haven't had more than 4 plane crashes with 100+ fatalities in any year. This year, we've had 4, including QZ8501. The last year we had 4 was 2006. So this is the worst in 8 years, but not the worst in 19... I guess a slightly worse than average year, depending on how many years you include in your stats.

I dont understand, are you saying this is an insignificant amount of people? It sure sounds like it. Everyone knows flying is safer than driving, that was never the question. But how often do 200 people die in a single car crash and can't be found? The worst part about anything is the unknown, thats what humans fear the most.

Technofreak

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#1205733 29-Dec-2014 20:45

tdgeek: I'm lost with this.

The flight path has very heavily ocean traffic. No mayday call, no wreckage even though it was around 7am it went missing? Also that gulf is quite shallow. How can they not have found anything? Not trying to be negative, but this is so much like MH370. Perhaps a passive hjacking?

Prayers to the families and friends

I understand conditions in the suspected crash area were very poor from a SAR point of view. Poor viz and very choppy seas. It wasn't good conditions for an aerial search and it was going to take a while for sea borne craft to get there.

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Technofreak

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#1205734 29-Dec-2014 20:47

joker97: nothing found?

so ... the black box is going to run out of batteries again? or is someone going to download the app to hear the pings? why isn't that the first thing you do, hear the pings, instead of spending millions on hundreds of planes helicopters and ships to search for a phantom?

No need for an app.

The proper equipment exists but the range of the pings under water is quite limited so you need to have an idea where to start first.

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Fred99

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#1205740 29-Dec-2014 21:32

Technofreak:
joker97: nothing found?

so ... the black box is going to run out of batteries again? or is someone going to download the app to hear the pings? why isn't that the first thing you do, hear the pings, instead of spending millions on hundreds of planes helicopters and ships to search for a phantom?

No need for an app.

The proper equipment exists but the range of the pings under water is quite limited so you need to have an idea where to start first.

Which is why perhaps, and despite many issues and situations where it might not work, some form of self deploying and mandatory EPIRB/ELT might be a good idea. Before 2014, perhaps not (only Air France 447), but now...

ETA - just read that the plane did have an ELT - but no signal (but was this ELT just the standard EPIRB on liferaft(s) / escape chutes?).
Possible debris spotted by an Aussie Orion.

Technofreak

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#1205770 29-Dec-2014 22:12

Fred99:

Which is why perhaps, and despite many issues and situations where it might not work, some form of self deploying and mandatory EPIRB/ELT might be a good idea. Before 2014, perhaps not (only Air France 447), but now...

ETA - just read that the plane did have an ELT - but no signal (but was this ELT just the standard EPIRB on liferaft(s) / escape chutes?).
Possible debris spotted by an Aussie Orion.

All aircraft have an ELT fitted to the airframe. I don't know but I suspect there may be other portable ELTs/EPIRBs for liferaft use.

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Fred99

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#1205784 29-Dec-2014 22:36

Technofreak:
Fred99:

Which is why perhaps, and despite many issues and situations where it might not work, some form of self deploying and mandatory EPIRB/ELT might be a good idea. Before 2014, perhaps not (only Air France 447), but now...

ETA - just read that the plane did have an ELT - but no signal (but was this ELT just the standard EPIRB on liferaft(s) / escape chutes?).
Possible debris spotted by an Aussie Orion.

All aircraft have an ELT fitted to the airframe. I don't know but I suspect there may be other portable ELTs/EPIRBs for liferaft use.

AFAIK. commercial airliners flying scheduled routes and with CVR/FDR are not required to have ELTs.
But liferafts must have them.

gzt

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#1206003 30-Dec-2014 13:52

This one will be found. The response is faster, water is shallower, search area is well defined.

Looks like an air speed sensor issue combined with human response. Same thing as AF-447.

markl

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Ultimate Geek

#1206022 30-Dec-2014 14:03

Technofreak:
joker97: nothing found?

so ... the black box is going to run out of batteries again? or is someone going to download the app to hear the pings? why isn't that the first thing you do, hear the pings, instead of spending millions on hundreds of planes helicopters and ships to search for a phantom?

No need for an app.

The proper equipment exists but the range of the pings under water is quite limited so you need to have an idea where to start first.

Yeah, and it's also complicated by the fact that water temperature changes in unusual ways - there are layers within large bodies of water where temperature can change more rapidly within that layer than the layers above or below it. This is known as a thermocline.

To quote wikipedia:

"In the open ocean, the thermocline is characterized by a negative sound speed gradient, making the thermocline important in submarine warfare because it can reflect active sonar and other acoustic signals. Technically, this effect stems from a discontinuity in the acoustic impedance of water created by the sudden change in density."

Obviously we're not talking about submarine warfare here but the effect is similar on these "pings" from the black boxes. So you need to have a pretty good idea where to look/listen.

markl

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Ultimate Geek

#1206026 30-Dec-2014 14:04

gzt: Looks like an air speed sensor issue combined with human response. Same thing as AF-447.

That's an interesting assertion. Or actually, more like a MASSIVE leap, given that nothing has yet been found or recovered from the aircraft. Care to present your evidence, and the thinking behind your conclusion?

No, you probably don't do you? Because you made it up.

gzt

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#1206031 30-Dec-2014 14:12

You are right. It is a leap but it is not a massive one. Circumstances are very similar.

markl

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#1206049 30-Dec-2014 14:23

gzt: You are right. It is a leap but it is not a massive one. Circumstances are very similar.

No. They are not. There ARE no circumstances yet. You cannot make comparisons until there is a critical mass of evidence. The aircraft is yet to be found. Only when the damage to the airframe, the injuries to the passengers and the data and voice recordings from the FDR and the CVR are available can any sort of analysis take place.

Right now, it's similar to the Air France accident, but also to, say, the Air NZ A320 crash off Perpingnan, or the Egypt Air Flight 990 incident, or the Silk Air Flight 185 crash, etc.

All that is known right now is that voice communications ceased and the aircraft disappeared off radar mid-flight. You can't even begin to determine a reason at this stage.

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