Ukraine War discussion

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#2969200 16-Sep-2022 15:29

ezbee:
Apparently Russia has been asking
Tajikistan for artilley and ammunition to add to.
North Korea.
Iran for large long range loitering munitions and drones, maybe more.

Putin has been compared to Hitler but he's really more like the original sawdust Caesar, Benito Mussolini: Lots of bluster and posturing, repeatedly repainting aircraft in different markings and parading them around to make it look like they had more and better equipment than they had, a mighty army equipped with thoroughly obsolete equipment (e.g. Carden-Loyd tankettes), poor morale, and in the end resorting to war-crimes tactics when they couldn't make headway by any other means and begging his (few) allies for help.

Oh, and at the moment it looks like he's in line to end like Il Duce did as well.

freitasm

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#2969251 16-Sep-2022 16:43

shk292:

Tinkerisk:

But for an alleged NATO fighter you are frighteningly disinformed.

I think you may be confusing this poster with me; it's me who is the "alleged" NATO serviceman, although I left UK some time ago and entered service with another country so ex-NATO is more accurate.
Anyway, it's been amusing to see the many and imaginative excuses for Germany's reluctance to support Ukraine in their fight for freedom, thank you for the insight. More encouraging are the recent news reports that Germany is stepping up to some extent with new commitments to provide equipment.
Countering that, this report on the German chief of defence and his bizarre statements on the conflict correlate quite well with your arguments. It does seem that there is a disconnect between your country's beliefs and those of other western nations.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/15/germanys-top-military-chief-gives-stunningly-poor-assessment/

I wouldn't go hard on Germany without going hard on everyone else. This is a war of aggression but European countries (and US/CA/AU/NZ) don't want to start a world war, so a lot of support is being provided under the guise of "training", "equipment" and "intelligence".

I personally would like to see this finished a lot earlier but that would probably drag many countries into this war.

So things just drag, at the cost of many lives in that region.

neb

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#2969261 16-Sep-2022 17:15

freitasm:
I wouldn't go hard on Germany without going hard on everyone else.

Also Germany still has the national trauma of 1939-1945, which is why they've been extremely reluctant to send any kind of significant military force outside the country since then. When they do go, it's typically to provide advice, training, medical support, peacekeeping, and so on. There's still a feeling of a massive need to reassure the world that this isn't like the previous two times that German troops turned up in other countries.

tdgeek

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#2969272 16-Sep-2022 17:59

neb:
freitasm:

I wouldn't go hard on Germany without going hard on everyone else.

Also Germany still has the national trauma of 1939-1945, which is why they've been extremely reluctant to send any kind of significant military force outside the country since then. When they do go, it's typically to provide advice, training, medical support, peacekeeping, and so on. There's still a feeling of a massive need to reassure the world that this isn't like the previous two times that German troops turned up in other countries.

End of the day its a global issue, individual countries should not be targeted. Hindsight

ezbee

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#2969277 16-Sep-2022 18:09

Russia's victorious campaign against Cormorants.
Do they have something against Shags ?

Russia Claims to Have Sunk a Barge With Ukrainian Special Forces -- It's a Concrete Block
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MotNpwl4ysY

A song for Putin.

The Bats, Block of Wood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJE7wIXKBrU

""
And it doesn't look good
And I'm feeling like a block of wood
So take me away
I know not where
""

Yes, please take him away.

K8Toledo

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#2969350 16-Sep-2022 23:54

neb:
freitasm:

I wouldn't go hard on Germany without going hard on everyone else.

Also Germany still has the national trauma of 1939-1945, which is why they've been extremely reluctant to send any kind of significant military force outside the country since then. When they do go, it's typically to provide advice, training, medical support, peacekeeping, and so on. There's still a feeling of a massive need to reassure the world that this isn't like the previous two times that German troops turned up in other countries.

Germany reversed its long standing Foreign Policies of not sending weapons into conflict zones & encouraging trade with Russia after the attack on Ukraine.

Germany unites behind chancellor’s historic U-turn on arming Ukraine -Guardian

As over 100,000 rally for Ukraine, Germany announces vast defense spending increase that may upend European security policy -WP

Germany to send Ukraine weapons in historic shift on military aid -Politico

In Foreign Policy U-Turn, Germany Ups Military Spending and Arms Ukraine -NYT

But what Ukraine needs right now is tanks, (even with Russian donations).

The lightning counter offensive against the Russian Army shows that if Ukraine had more amour this war could be brought a close sooner rather than later.

And here Germany is dragging its feet....Scholz cited various reasons why Leopards or Marders can't be sent to Ukraine, inone convincing.

The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory -European Council on Foreign Relations (no paywall).

Germany Has the Tanks Ukraine Needs. It Must Send Them ASAP -Bloomberg, WP (no paywall).

Scholz tells Putin to withdraw as Germany faces calls to send Ukraine tanks -Politico (no paywall).

It's worth remembering that Germany, as the largest economy in Europe is seen as the leader. Where Germany goes others will follow.

Tinkerisk

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#2969360 17-Sep-2022 05:38

I think everything has been said, just not by everyone.

We will certainly not have much standing around with a recently approved €100,000,000.00 special state budget to plug the holes caused by past stated mistakes and by the time we have new equipment, time will have moved on. We will not send anything that still limits our defence capability - no matter which press tail end charlies want to join in our defence policy. (In addition, one can safely assume that the 100,000 are 95% Ukrainians who have found shelter here and who naturally have the right to demonstrate.)

Our obligations and defence capability are the reasons why chancellor Scholz is reticent. Unlike the poltergeists, he adheres to the think-push-speak rule (after all, he was mayor of our city for a long time before becoming minister and then chancellor).

Nice and thank you for listening to us so carefully. :-)

@neb

Thank you for the clarifying words and this important background, which is completely missing in today's generation. The change from "it is forbidden for you" to "but you have to do it now" was not discussed in society. It simply went off in Serbia ... as an UN mission. In addition, the army was changed to a purely professional army so as not to get into the conflict at the time of involving young conscripts in warlike activities outside the country's borders. That would certainly not have gone down well with the population‘s will. Even at the time of our reunification with East Germany, Allied voices were raised that feared a resurgence of Germany as a great military power, something we never dreamed of and never think of (again). That is why we bake small rolls from a military point of view.

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K8Toledo

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#2969452 17-Sep-2022 15:53

Scholz's argument that sending ~100 tanks/AFV's to Ukraine undermines German security is unconvincing given Germany is part of NATO.

And 100 tanks aren't going make a difference either way.

Tinkerisk

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#2969463 17-Sep-2022 17:22

K8Toledo:

Scholz's argument that sending ~100 tanks/AFV's to Ukraine undermines German security is unconvincing given Germany is part of NATO.

And 100 tanks aren't going make a difference either way.

I can see that there are real experts at work here, and whether they need to be convinced by our chancellor is something I think is slightly exaggerated. We have 328 of them ourselves and they are not surplus, but happen to be the main component of national defence.

But Great Britain has 367 Challenger 2s, of which they could send 100, including logistics, training teams, spare parts, etc. Putin will certainly not attack the island by land so quickly, if at all. Or are they not really usable for asymmetric warfare? Or Canada, 112 of them? Or Switzerland, which is NEUTRAL anyway - 380?

Gurezaemon

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#2969493 17-Sep-2022 18:21

I can't help but think that Germany could have done far more to weaken Russia's position and strengthen its own by spending a decent amount of money on resuscitating its nuclear power plants thus freeing itself from dependence on Russian gas, so that it is would not have been hamstrung by threats to shut down its energy (and by implication its industry). Probably a bit late now though.

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tdgeek

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#2969497 17-Sep-2022 18:38

Im not an expert on Russia, Germany (although i did German at High School for 3 years) and the energy issue.

What I do know, is that hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Fukushima put the shivers through nuclear reactors. Thus many were shut down. The ideal scenario for climate change and Putin, is nuclear reactors stay on stream and wind down as alternate green energy winds up. Putin throws his toys, nuclear is there to buffer the gas. Probably simplistic but again, hindsight is a wonderful thing. I also feels its inappropriate to to include another dicatators 1940's actions as part of a discussion re Germany in 2022.

tdgeek

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#2969498 17-Sep-2022 18:40

Gurezaemon:

I can't help but think that Germany could have done far more to weaken Russia's position and strengthen its own by spending a decent amount of money on resuscitating its nuclear power plants thus freeing itself from dependence on Russian gas, so that it is would not have been hamstrung by threats to shut down its energy (and by implication its industry). Probably a bit late now though.

I "think" that restarting a reactor is a major issue, even if the reactor is still fully staffed, and I assume they are not re my above post

neb

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#2969509 17-Sep-2022 20:06

tdgeek:
I "think" that restarting a reactor is a major issue, even if the reactor is still fully staffed, and I assume they are not re my above post

(Re)Starting a reactor isn't that hard, it's the compliance and paperwork that kills you.

Tinkerisk

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#2969684 18-Sep-2022 11:38

Yepp, hindsight … they say, when something has taken place. It's always connected to experience and learning, ... and something „not to forget.“

„… the view was developing that the civilian population of Germany was a legitimate target“ sounds familar these days in the Ukraine as well. Only at that time, no one in the world was upset via Facebook, youtube, etc. A memorial on the spot where civil people were reduced to ashes is less than 200 metres away from me.

Some think whoever planned it was a hero, others think it was a war criminal. The post-war view is also always strongly dependent on who wins or loses a war.

There is no fair war.

itxtme

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#2969718 18-Sep-2022 13:40

Tinkerisk:

Our obligations and defence capability are the reasons why chancellor Scholz is reticent. Unlike the poltergeists, he adheres to the think-push-speak rule (after all, he was mayor of our city for a long time before becoming minister and then chancellor).

Except that's not really true. There is no requirement to send Germanys own stock, but stock sitting unutilised. Scholz is blocking saying a US led NATO response is required, but the US is saying its up to individual countries.

There is even the case of Greece sending BMP 1's to Ukraine. Last built in 1981 (these are probably older). They are being backfilled by more modern German Marder IFVs. Why not send the modern vehicles straight to Ukraine? Rheinmetall has them available, but Scholz is too scared to OK the deal.

The main reason German tanks are preferred is they have an export version available. So could sell them immediately, this is against the likes of the M1 Abrams that the US has in storage but have depleted uranium defensive armour which the US does not export to anyone.

I think the best hope is for Sweden to hurry up and get into NATO and then start selling some of the excellent kit they produce.

The stuff coming out over the last 48 hours in Izyum shows what this stalling is costing in life. Wait until they get to Mariupol...

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