Ukraine War discussion

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#2971207 21-Sep-2022 19:03

cruxis:
Next step on the ladder will be sham referendums.

That's actually a far scarier threat than calling up reserves. Russian nuclear doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons under four very carefully-defined conditions, one of which is an existential threat to Russia. By declaring bits of Ukraine to now be Russia, the preconditions are satisfied, since Ukraine will be attacking Russia, not liberating Ukraine.

Beccara

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#2971208 21-Sep-2022 19:12

300k troops being called up it seems

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

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tdgeek

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#2971210 21-Sep-2022 19:13

Rikkitic:

Sometimes you just get a feeling for something, like sensing the approach of rain. I have always been fascinated by the 1920s in Europe, and what it must have felt like as the small hints of times to come pushed through the party atmosphere. I feel like random fragments are coming together as they did then, like a gathering storm. There is a smell of war in the air, not localised regional conflict, but serious, all-out combat. The world is heading for war. Today I became convinced of that. I don't know if it will go nuclear, but it will pull in the world, as it has done twice before. War is coming. You can see the vortex spinning. You can see people leaning in to it. It is just like it was then.

I get that 100%. Back in the day it was muskets, then bullets, then bombs, then technically accurate warfare. If this war was run by normal people, commonsense (aka Im beaten) would prevail, but this is Putin. Id argue he is far less rational than Kim Jong Un. By a country mile. KJU is not stupid, he knows his limits, and he exploits them best as he can. Successfully. Putin is a loose canon. However should he cross the line.... all bets are off, he loses, and Russian people get a life for once. And there global economy benefits.

Yes, a rather shortly assessed predicted history!

tdgeek

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#2971211 21-Sep-2022 19:15

neb:
cruxis:

Next step on the ladder will be sham referendums.

That's actually a far scarier threat than calling up reserves. Russian nuclear doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons under four very carefully-defined conditions, one of which is an existential threat to Russia. By declaring bits of Ukraine to now be Russia, the preconditions are satisfied, since Ukraine will be attacking Russia, not liberating Ukraine.

Probably correct. Its currently a civil war, well not quite, but should the line be stepped over ad its an official world war, then the West has no boundaries to go in. Like Iraq 1.0 with a correct reasoning.

kingdragonfly

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#2971216 21-Sep-2022 19:30

I got an odd comment from a very-anti-Russian Ukrainian. She said Russia rationalizes the invasion of the Ukraine by saying by saying the US was imperialistic by purchasing Alaska.

It's a flawed rationalization, because Russia sold Alaska following debts from their failed Crimean War.

Here's a video about that stupid war, which seems to familiar

tdgeek

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#2971223 21-Sep-2022 19:58

Putin also warned the West that “it's not a bluff” that Russia would use all the means at its disposal to protect its territory. (Stuff)

Next time I rob a bank, I'll get the Police to protect my ill-gotten gains

Desperation 101. A fail here....

ezbee

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#2971338 21-Sep-2022 21:58

Desperation.

Flights Abroad Sell Out, Stocks Plunge on Putin's ‘Partial’ Mobilization
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/21/flights-abroad-sell-out-stocks-plunge-on-putins-partial-mobilization-a78852

""
Flights from Moscow to the capitals of Georgia, Turkey and Armenia for Sept. 21 were unavailable within minutes of Putin’s announcement, according to Russia’s top travel planning website aviasales.ru.

By noon Moscow time, direct flights from Moscow to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan had also stopped showing up on the website.

With rumors of border closures swirling, Russian Railways and flagship airline Aeroflot said they had not “yet” been ordered to ban men aged 18 to 65 from buying tickets.
""

Nothing like the thought of being part of a winter campaign with no gear to focus the mind.

neb

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#2971361 22-Sep-2022 00:19

ezbee:
Nothing like the thought of being part of a winter campaign with no gear to focus the mind.

Well, they invaded during the spring rasputitsa, renewing the effort during the autumn one seems par for the course for their leadership.

Looks like this will need updating:

tdgeek

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#2971394 22-Sep-2022 07:52

The hole he is digging is getting very personal now, bordering on him losing control of his people, amidst public displays against him and his autocratic rule

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300694659/russians-rush-to-book-oneway-flights-after-vladimir-putin-calls-up-reservists-for-ukraine-war

Large numbers of Russians have rushed to book one-way tickets out of the country while they still could, after President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation of military reservists for the war in Ukraine.

Flights filled up quickly and the prices of fares for remaining connections skyrocketed, apparently driven by fears that Russia's borders could soon close, or of a broader call-up that might send many men of fighting age to the war’s front lines.

itxtme

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#2971471 22-Sep-2022 09:49

neb:
cruxis:

Next step on the ladder will be sham referendums.

That's actually a far scarier threat than calling up reserves. Russian nuclear doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons under four very carefully-defined conditions, one of which is an existential threat to Russia. By declaring bits of Ukraine to now be Russia, the preconditions are satisfied, since Ukraine will be attacking Russia, not liberating Ukraine.

The counter to this is Crimea has been attacked successfully by Ukraine and nothing happened.

SaltyNZ

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#2971502 22-Sep-2022 10:17

tdgeek:

and Russian people get a life for once.

What about Russian history would make you think that?

I mean, it's not even 30 years since the fall of the Soviet Union; look how that turned out. It was 8 years between the coup and Putin coming to power bringing to an end any hope of a free and fair democratic Russia rising from the ashes. The same thing will happen this time: Putin will only crumble under pressure, and probably by committing suicide by three polonium-coated bullets to the back of the head followed by jumping out a 12th story window. The economy will be in a crater with crippling sanctions.

The kind of person who is going to be able to lever Putin out of the way without suffering the same fate trying is not then going to turn around, draft a new democratic constitution, sweep out the corruption and hold new, fair elections. No, they're going to be Putin II.

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Tinkerisk

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#2971791 22-Sep-2022 16:54

I said some time ago that cornered rats bite. They have no strategy, they only follow instincts. It is particularly dangerous when it comes to „paranoid“ rats - they also bite when they "think" or "pretend" to be attacked. You have to expect this in any case. "Poison dwarfs" are not called that for no reason.

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kingdragonfly

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#2971945 23-Sep-2022 08:22

Here's an honest webpage that lists dictatorships. Despite elections in Russia, it's listed

World Population Review: Dictatorship Countries 2022

linw

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#2972128 23-Sep-2022 13:13

Just watched an interview with Ilya Ponomarev, an exiled former Russian lawmaker.

He was asked about the Russian "referenda" being held in Ukraine areas. He said the reason was because, by law, draftees could not be sent to other countries without declaring a war.

An interesting insight.

Not that Putin seems to worry about laws! However, the outrush by men, and the protests, might have him thinking. (I did say "might"!).

Edited to include 'without declaring a war'.

freitasm

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#2972200 23-Sep-2022 16:30

What a surprise... Russia Ukraine war: Putin passes secret law to mobilise a million men to fight, Kremlin source says - NZ Herald

"Meanwhile, top Russian officials and lawmakers are beginning to feel the heat of criticism as they seem unwilling to go to war themselves or send their family members to Ukraine."

Nikolai Peskov, a 32-year-old son of President Putin's spokesman, rejected suggestions to sign up when a member of a Russian opposition group prank-called him on Wednesday.

"You need to understand that I shouldn't be there if my name is Mr Peskov," the spokesman's son told the activist who posed as a military official requesting him to show up at the military commissioner's office.

"I'm going to solve this issue on a different level."

Asked if he was going to sign up for the army, Peskov Jnr was heard saying: "Certainly not."

The opposition activists released the full footage of the phone call but his father, Dmitry Peskov, insisted that the remarks were taken out of context and that he had "no doubts" in his son's "choice".

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