Ukraine War discussion

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#3094576 24-Jun-2023 22:40

Naaah just get popcorn, let Russians crush Putin.
Never interrupt the enemy when they are making a mistake, especially a long running big one.

So far it looks like Prigozhin has destroyed as many helicopters as Ukraine did in a week, in one day !
A large fuel depot in Voronezh has gone up, either a misguided KA-52 srike on Wagner, or Wagner AA missile missed and got a large fuel storage depot.

A IL18 transport plane has gone down as well.

Lukashenko's private jet has gone to Turkey, hopefully he is on it and Belarus is in play.

neb

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#3094579 24-Jun-2023 22:49

It's going to get interesting unless Prigozhin goes too near a window, with almost everything Russia has deployed to Ukraine there's only second-line troops and OMON and similar paramilitary forces to hold Moscow. Putin would have to draw troops from Ukraine, a lose/lose situation.

Batman

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#3094587 25-Jun-2023 07:08

is Wagner attacking Russia instead of Ukraine?

SaltyNZ

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2degrees

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#3094589 25-Jun-2023 08:04

Rikkitic:

I read somewhere that they have 8,000. What is the shelf life of a warhead? Do they require maintenance? Do they deteriorate, like batteries? Would warheads manufactured in the sixties still work or be reliable?

Yes, they do have a shelf life and they do require maintenance. However up till a couple of years ago, US inspectors were checking them regularly under mutual arms control treaties. So the West collectively knows exactly in what shape the warheads are as of a couple of years ago at least - and even if they've not had any maintenance since, that won't have changed a lot in such a short time.

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tdgeek

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#3094591 25-Jun-2023 08:10

neb: ... meaning attack a country with around 6,000 nuclear warheads whose policy on using them includes the case of an existential threat, for example being attacked by a coalition of other countries in order to crush their leader.

Ok, on that basis attacking other countries with impunity is allowed.Perhaps the men, women, children, schools, hospitals and food and power sources may disagree.

Tinkerisk

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#3094592 25-Jun-2023 08:14

neb:
tdgeek:

If we man up we crush Putin,

... meaning attack a country with around 6,000 nuclear warheads whose policy on using them includes the case of an existential threat, for example being attacked by a coalition of other countries in order to crush their leader.

The causal connection of the little word "we" in this context should perhaps be clarified beforehand. When politicians use this domestically, for example, it should always be done by others.😀

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Tinkerisk

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#3094593 25-Jun-2023 08:18

SaltyNZ:

… and even if they've not had any maintenance since, that won't have changed a lot in such a short time.

If you have a box of hand grenades you are playin’ around with and only one works, you're still screwed. 😆

kingdragonfly

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#3094598 25-Jun-2023 09:25

Not experts, and written by "evil American capitalist" so take it with a grain of salt.

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ezbee

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#3094618 25-Jun-2023 10:22

So Ceasar got to the Rubicon and said... Yeh Nah...

A song for Prigozhin

Is That All There Is?
Peggy Lee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPP6UgkmyM4

Well he did take out about 7 air assets that won't be used against Ukraine.

SJB

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#3094680 25-Jun-2023 12:50

Tomorrows headline

"Prigozhin slips while in the bath and plunges 12 storeys to his death"

and in the following story

"The inquest, carried out on the pavement next to his body, ruled it an accident. The body was cremated there and then to save money"

Batman

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#3094698 25-Jun-2023 13:41

Prigozhin is a dead man walking

anyway, i was surprised he backed off, sacrificing himself instead of fighting Putin.

i'm not sure how big his army that was 200km from Moscow was, and how big Putin's army in Moscow was, but something doesn't add up.

i think it went something like this:

Putin: Prigozhin, you have 1,000 men, i have 10,000 tanks, f off

Prigozhin: ok

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#3094700 25-Jun-2023 13:45

SJB:

Tomorrows headline

"Prigozhin slips while in the bath and plunges 12 storeys to his death"

and in the following story

"The inquest, carried out on the pavement next to his body, ruled it an accident. The body was cremated there and then to save money"

if he doesn't want to die his best bet is to defect to Ukraine but he might not want to do that, so he's a dead man walking

GV27

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#3094701 25-Jun-2023 13:47

ezbee:

So Ceasar got to the Rubicon and said... Yeh Nah...

A song for Prigozhin

Is That All There Is?
Peggy Lee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPP6UgkmyM4

Well he did take out about 7 air assets that won't be used against Ukraine.

He didn't even get to the Rubicon. He didn't even set up camp next to it.

He didn't even approach from more than single side, or even more thaa single road.

A single column, despite the last year and a bit being all about decimating column advances in that part of the world.

If he, of all people, thought his position was so untennable, that a shadow coup was the best option he felt he had, and expected a deal that wasn't signed with a poison pen in return, then there will be many in the upper echelons who will be deciding if enough is enough - or it was a false-flag exercise to further some other agenda that we haven't seen.

I do not think this is over yet.

neb

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#3094768 25-Jun-2023 17:05

SJB:
Tomorrows headline

"Prigozhin slips while in the bath and plunges 12 storeys to his death"

When you take on the Capo di Tutti Capi and fail you don't have a small accident, you have a very visible, messy death. For example you get hung off iron hooks with the death filmed for possible later viewing by the boss (link is G-rated, to a history page).

ezbee

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#3094790 25-Jun-2023 18:02

Yeh its chaotic, and will continue to reverberate.

Ok how about...

Hannibal looks at Alps from a distance, says you're not getting Elephants over that !
Turns around and does a deal with Rome.

Perhaps Prigozhin's circle, Military, Political, Oligarchy.
They were all complaining about the situation and what they could do, would do, capable of doing, if only.

The core of Wagner are his professionals, nasty professional killers, the disposable prisoner meat were different.
When Shoigu threatened this core that he has built up over years to run operations in Africa.
With July 1st deadline it was now or never.

When moment arrived, key people sent their families away on private jets, stopped answering the phone.
Then he knew it was time to do a deal?

Lukashenko to rescue, who would have thought.
I will give you a potato farm and a new tractor.
His control of Belarus is not 'popular' so having a very capable PMC that's more loyal may be a thing ?
Russia absolutely does not want to lose Belarus on the edge of finally becoming fully a state of Russia.

Maybe Putin got calls from panicked African leaders begging him not to destroy Wagner.
Russian military is not half as effective.

Putin may enjoy serving revenge cold later, a fine well aged revenge.

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