Ukraine War discussion

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#3102461 10-Jul-2023 22:03

Some well thought out arguments here about why Russia needs to be beaten in Ukraine and how a negotiated peace where Russia keeps any of the Ukrainian territories it now occupies is doomed to long term failure and future troubles for Europe.

There's a fair bit of reading but it gives some very insightful perspectives.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine

Also some good points in short videos like this. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JY1jEvgFw0w

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neb

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#3102463 10-Jul-2023 22:10

elpenguino:
I think you're right, but with the caveat, while Putin is in power. As long as Putin is in power, the war will go on.

That's a tautology, but also reverses cause and effect: Putin is an indicted war criminal, which makes him an international pariah. No-one will negotiate with a war criminal. A more accurate statement would be that the war cannot end with Putin still in power, which assorted other people in power in Russia will be well aware of. For a historic example of where this leads, see the numerous attempts on Hitlers life, ten or so known ones during the war and more that were never revealed. So step one in any exit strategy for them is "remove Putin so we've got someone that can negotiate".

Indicting Putin for war crimes wasn't just posturing, it was telling everyone in Russia that they couldn't get out of this situation as long as they kept Putin in place.

Technofreak

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#3102467 10-Jul-2023 22:37

Batman:

as to Russia losing the war, that won't happen

Russia and USA have been engaging in Proxy Wars since WW2, this is just another proxy war.

Russia are the biggest oil producer in the world, they control the price of the broccoli whether you like it or not, sanctions or not.

As far as the likes of Poland and the Baltic States Russia has to lose otherwise they know they are next. Russia won't stop with Ukrainne or even part of Ukraine.

Any peace deal that sees Russia retain one bit of Ukraine will be seen by Russia as a win and they will be back for more at a later date.

Some of the biggest supporters of Ukraine on a per capita basis are countries that were either formerly part of the USSR or were occupied by Russia. They don't want to be under Russian control ever again.

Where ever did you come up with the proxy war theory?

Russia might be making good money from its oil, but there is so much corruption that most of the money that should/could have been spent on developing their military has been syphoned off into the pockets of a few people. There's jokes going around like this, "In 2021 the Russian Army was the second best in the world, in 2022 they were the second best in Ukraine, in 2023 they are the second best in Russia."

If you listen to the Wagner chief Prigozhin, he will tell you the war is already lost unless there are big changes at the very top of the Russian military. This is unlikely to happen as those in place now have vested interests in keeping their jobs.

There's a very worthwhile interview of him here which has been translated and sub-titled

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1669549294515531777

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kingdragonfly

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#3102592 11-Jul-2023 11:04

I believe as a potential adversary Russia has squandered its resources.

But as important, Russia also willingly ignored its upcoming population demographics bomb. Before the wholesale slaughter of their own youth, they already didn't have enough young people.

Unusual Population Structure: Russia vs Rest of Europe; 1950~2100 Population Pyramid Comparison

"We compare odd and strange demographics: Population pyramid of Russia and Europe.

Demographics of Russia is extremely abnormal.
...
Demographic crisis of Russia relates to possible demographic problems of the Russian Federation. The crisis began to unfold in the beginning of the 1990s.

In 1990, Russia ranked 25th in the list of countries with high rates of population aging. Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences from the early 2000's, in 2016 elderly people aged over 60 would have accounted for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years would only have made up 17%. However in Russia, in contrast to other countries, aging is being limited by high mortality among older people.

A number of researchers believe that the depopulation affected the Russian people to a greater extent than other peoples living in Russia. According to Rybakovskii, the real (and not the census) number of Russians for the period from 1989 to 2002 decreased by 7%, while the overall country population – only by 1.3%. According to Beloborodov, by the year 2025 85–90% of the population decline in Russia will be due to Russians and in the course of the next 20 years the percentage of Russians as a rough estimate will drop to about 60 to 70%. He predicts also that in 2050, the proportion of Russians in Russia will amount to 46.5%. Some researchers, considering the reduction of the indigenous population as a result of the demographic crisis, given accompanying high immigration (in the case of lack of assimilation of migrants), have made very alarming forecasts.

As one of the likely consequences of the demographic crisis some researchers point to a deep change in the future ethno-religious composition of the population (with a share of more than 20% of migrants appear closed ethnic groups, assimilation difficult and exacerbated ethnic conflicts). By 2030, one in five people of Russia will practice Islam. A graphic example of ethnic aspect of the demographic crisis: now a third of all the births in Moscow accounts for migrants, which would change the ethnic and religious composition of the population of Moscow in the nearest future. Reduction of the indigenous population by increasing the share of migrants in the opinion of some researchers may lead to future loss of the territorial integrity of Russia.

Chances are that the first territorial losses will be in Siberia and Russian Far East. This is due both to the depopulation of these lands because of low birth rates and internal migration to the European part of Russia, and to the demographic pressure from Asian countries (especially China). For the first time in the history of Russian Siberia, its population is steadily declining"

neb

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#3102618 11-Jul-2023 12:05

kingdragonfly: by the year 2025 85–90% of the population decline in Russia will be due to Russians

That's currently already the case. Or at least due to one particular Russian.

elpenguino

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#3102776 11-Jul-2023 15:49

No mention of the cluster bomb development, namely Ukraine saying they will use cluster bombs against military targets?

Russia has been using cluster bombs against Ukraine since the beginning of the war https://www.bbc.com/news/61079356

Opponents say cluster bombs will kill innocent civilians after the war .... they're right, but innocent civilians are being killed by Russians right now.

It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will use the cluster bombs as intended or break them open and use each bomblet with a drone. Mebbe both.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

neb

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#3102779 11-Jul-2023 15:54

elpenguino:
Opponents say cluster bombs will kill innocent civilians after the war .... they're right, but innocent civilians are being killed by Russians right now.

Two wrongs don't make a right. Cluster bombs have been banned by most civilised countries (so not Russia and the US) because of how nasty they are. If you're supposed to be the good guys then using weapons that most countries have banned because of how inhumane they are isn't a good look.

elpenguino

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#3102794 11-Jul-2023 16:18

I bet Ukrainians felt the same way as you until their shopping malls and hospitals started getting bombed.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

Gurezaemon

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#3102796 11-Jul-2023 16:21

neb:
elpenguino:

Opponents say cluster bombs will kill innocent civilians after the war .... they're right, but innocent civilians are being killed by Russians right now.

Two wrongs don't make a right. Cluster bombs have been banned by most civilised countries (so not Russia and the US) because of how nasty they are. If you're supposed to be the good guys then using weapons that most countries have banned because of how inhumane they are isn't a good look.

Ukraine has the (I think) valid arguments that

a) this is on their own territory, so they're not impacting anyone else,

b) cluster munitions are already being used by the Russians, and not using them in regaining their own territory puts them at a disadvantage, especially since a failure to take back their own territory pretty much means a de facto Russian victory, and

c) the Russian invasion is an existential threat to their survival, and if they don't use cluster munitions, they potentially won't be around to debate the point.

It's the idea of justice of the war vs. justice in the war. Most would agree that in initiating acts of aggression against Ukraine, Russia is unjust and this thus gives Ukraine the moral right to remedy the situation, even fighting dirty.

Nobody would argue that if someone attacks you in an alleyway out of the blue, you shouldn't kick them in their nads, scratch their eyes, or otherwise fight dirty—do anything necessary to get away.

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neb

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#3102807 11-Jul-2023 16:46

I'm just not sure whether it's a good thing in the long term since now Russia can justify their own use by saying that the other side were doing it too. When some German generals were charged with waging a war of aggression during the war crimes trials they responded by pointing out that they weren't doing anything the other side hadn't already done too. It can come back to bite you in the future, given the Russian history with "And you are lynching Negroes" you know they're going to try this one.

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#3102813 11-Jul-2023 16:53

Russia has already proven it doesn't give a toss for international norms or what is considered humane or not, and it is a given that they will ramp up their reality distortion field another level and continue bleating about awful 'terrorist' attacks on their territory as soon as a drone or artillery shell gets flung back at them. Most of that talk is for internal consumption, and few people other than full-on tankies or vatniks pay it any attention.

Reminds me of something I read recently - "The best way to stop people dying was to stop people shooting. And the best way to stop people shooting was to shoot them."

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tdgeek

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#3102829 11-Jul-2023 18:01

neb: I'm just not sure whether it's a good thing in the long term since now Russia can justify their own use by saying that the other side were doing it too. When some German generals were charged with waging a war of aggression during the war crimes trials they responded by pointing out that they weren't doing anything the other side hadn't already done too. It can come back to bite you in the future, given the Russian history with "And you are lynching Negroes" you know they're going to try this one.

The issue here is Russia invaded another country. IF the other country attacked Russia thats terrible as Russia has inferred. So its ok to attack Ukraine, but if Ukraine attacked Russia thats shocking. In any war there is a winner and a loser. Same applies here, but the issue is Russia "could" launch nuclear weapons, so everyone backs off. So Russia in many ways is winning due to that threat. The Russian army, Ukranian defenders as well as the allies, people, kids, elders are the casualties. All because Russia aka Putin may go nuclear. Its like a Principal in a primary school being held to ransom by a bully in primary school.

There is a line that needs to be drawn. If we are scared of Putins nuclear threat, when does that end? Japan suffered two nuclear detonations, the World hasnt ended. While im not saying thats ok, a line needs to be drawn. China is part of this, as they are a "potential" issue. But China is China, like all asian cultures they have honour but they arent stupid. If Russia is crushed, China doesnt want to be part of that as their goal is China, not Russia. Hence China is not flowing gazillions of $ or munitions to Russia. Russia is a PITB to China.

Technofreak

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#3102923 11-Jul-2023 20:47

Ukraine has already used cluster bombs in this war which were supplied by Turkey. So that bridge has already been crossed.

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SaltyNZ

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#3103065 12-Jul-2023 10:22

Gurezaemon:

Reminds me of something I read recently - "The best way to stop people dying was to stop people shooting. And the best way to stop people shooting was to shoot them."

Sounds like something out of Slaughterhouse Five or Catch-22.

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kingdragonfly

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#3103421 12-Jul-2023 19:02

A bit off subject: I enjoyed this video, as told by a former Russian living in the US

Can You Build Socialism By Drinking Hard And Hardly Working? #ussr

Ushanka Show

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