Ukraine War discussion

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#3377637 28-May-2025 12:31

wellygary:

tdgeek:

I see EU, USA have authorised long range missiles, about time.

Russia say thats not helpful for negotiations (which Russia is playing us all as fools, Trumps finally wised up to that)

So obliterate an independent nation, but its a problem when they return fire??? At least the returning of fire wont include schools, kindergartens, hospitals, apartments, and energy infrastructure which is all about targeting civilians

Not quite,

I think the latest comment was Germany removing its limits, and coming into line with others who had already removed their limitations on Ukraine using long range missiles to strike inside Russia,

The US and UK authorised this in November 2024,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/ukraine-uk-missiles-strike-russia

But it now requires Germany to actually send Taurus missile to Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/sending-taurus-to-ukraine-end-of-german-fear-and-escalation-angst/

The most likely target would be a sustained attack on the Kerch Bridge,

From what I gather, there is a change, perhaps the limits are longer, or more so, that this is now seen as an official change of direction. Russia has commented, so they seem to see it as the latter

PolicyGuy

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#3377639 28-May-2025 12:38

wellygary:

tdgeek:

I see EU, USA have authorised long range missiles, about time.

{snip}

Not quite,

I think the latest comment was Germany removing its limits, and coming into line with others who had already removed their limitations on Ukraine using long range missiles to strike inside Russia,

{snip}

The most likely target would be a sustained attack on the Kerch Bridge,

That would have some propaganda value, but little military effect.

I would expect a more concentrated effort to hit oil refineries and gas pumping stations.
Such an approach has three benefits to Ukraine's cause: restricts fuel availability to the Russian forces; restricts or removes the ability for Russia to sell oil & gas overseas to finance arms purchases; and through shortages on the Russian home market increases / creates domestic pressure against the war

wellygary

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#3377643 28-May-2025 13:45

tdgeek:

From what I gather, there is a change, perhaps the limits are longer, or more so, that this is now seen as an official change of direction. Russia has commented, so they seem to see it as the latter

The UK's Storm Shadow and US ATACMs all have a "short" range of 250Kms,... Germany's Taurus missile has an advertised range of over 500km, but analysts think it could be as far as 800km...

This is a significant upgrade of Ukrainian capacity, and hence likely why Russia are being noisy about it

tdgeek

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#3377692 28-May-2025 14:11

wellygary:

The UK's Storm Shadow and US ATACMs all have a "short" range of 250Kms,... Germany's Taurus missile has an advertised range of over 500km, but analysts think it could be as far as 800km...

This is a significant upgrade of Ukrainian capacity, and hence likely why Russia are being noisy about it

What's Russia's capacity?

wellygary

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#3377695 28-May-2025 14:19

tdgeek:

wellygary:

The UK's Storm Shadow and US ATACMs all have a "short" range of 250Kms,... Germany's Taurus missile has an advertised range of over 500km, but analysts think it could be as far as 800km...

This is a significant upgrade of Ukrainian capacity, and hence likely why Russia are being noisy about it

What's Russia's capacity?

Russia have ICBMs.. should they choose to use them they could hit anywhere in Ukraine

tdgeek

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#3379981 2-Jun-2025 17:50

UKR has targeted Russian airbases, destroyed many planes, all sent off in Russian territory. Russia says its a terrorist attack. Its not

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#3379986 2-Jun-2025 18:59

tdgeek:

UKR has targeted Russian airbases, destroyed many planes, all sent off in Russian territory. Russia says its a terrorist attack. Its not

Yeah all indications are they did a LOT of damage. Also destroyed 2 bridges in the Kursk region and possibly done major damage to a submarine. Incredible night of operations.

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#3380266 3-Jun-2025 20:01

On top of destruction Putin will have to pull more air defense and more people to defend sites within Russia.
Then there are all the people needed to inspect trucks all throughout Russia.
Being big that is a lot of trucks over a lot of territory.

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#3380406 4-Jun-2025 11:59

That was a pretty hard strike.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

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#3380748 5-Jun-2025 15:23

Ukraine strikes Russian bomber-maker with hack attack

"In particular, we have obtained comprehensive information about individuals directly involved in servicing Russian strategic aviation. The result will obviously be noticeable both on the ground and in the sky."

Wow. They'll be sticking their head out of the front door of their houses and looking in the sky for signs of drones before leaving for work.

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#3380752 5-Jun-2025 15:47

The Drone attack is interesting, not because they blew up planes with explosives strapped to drones,- once the original armoured columns were repelled, the ground trench warfare has pretty much been a drone war..

What I would be interested in knowing is how you control a small drone 1000kms away, these drones were too small to house satellite communications equipment, so I'm guessing each container had a star link terminal or similar and the drones were fibre connected to that and then controlled by remote operators....

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#3380817 5-Jun-2025 17:08

I did hear a mention of the Russian cellular network being used.
It may have been why drones look like they released a few at a time as they could not have too many up at one time bandwidth being limited.
Video of a drones missing or making a few goes does seem to suggest some were struggling with lagg ? Onboard Ai was mentioned but would be pretty basic, and may have needed help?

Surely Starlink does not work in Russia ? Or maybe...

The videos/photos that Ukraine has shown from the trucks going out to their allotted positions seems to show they have a pretty good handle on Russia's internet for this operation.
Same for live video of the Kerch Bridge explosion from a Russian surveillance camera there to spot any tampering.

While Russia did take down cellular for the Moscow victory parade in Moscow, the unlucky conscript who posted a video of destruction as it was happening at one of the bases shows cellular was up and running.

So presumably there was no plan to isolate these bases communications quickly upon any alarm.
It not being effective for the long range drones that are using different methods ?

Of course now the Kremlin propagandists want this young naïve chap shot for exposing the destruction live on his social media.

tdgeek

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#3380837 5-Jun-2025 18:36

wellygary:

The Drone attack is interesting, not because they blew up planes with explosives strapped to drones,- once the original armoured columns were repelled, the ground trench warfare has pretty much been a drone war..

What I would be interested in knowing is how you control a small drone 1000kms away, these drones were too small to house satellite communications equipment, so I'm guessing each container had a star link terminal or similar and the drones were fibre connected to that and then controlled by remote operators....

I believe they trucked them in. NOW, there are miles and miles of stalled trucks that the Putin army are checking.