Ukraine War discussion

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#2878497 3-Mar-2022 19:57

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/bitcoin-russia-sanctions-crypto-cryptocurrencies-51646124346

Bit coin is soaring as Russians buy up large. Had on BBC that crypto boss won’t cut Russia off in the ticker. Have no idea who a crypto boss is.

Also Russia have banned sales of foreign investments, so guessing BP etc will not be able to sell off their share of things in Russia. Have also banned Dividend payments to non Russians. So companies like BP will have their assets tied up in Russia while getting no return on them.

Get the impression that Putin thinks sanctions will go away once fighting stops, which he thinks will be once conquered cities. Other wise he just see’s them as something to work around and not going to change any decisions.

Also if the west is not prepared to fire back military in my view then Russia can hit any country they like, especially non NATO ones.

Edit: better link, didn’t realise other one paywalled

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/wraltechwire.com/2022/03/01/flight-to-cryptocurrency-sends-prices-soaring-bitcoin-back-over-40000/%3famp=1

networkn

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#2878498 3-Mar-2022 20:02

Russia still has two very powerful cards to play. Oil and Gas. Russia has been dirt poor before, they would need to ride it out, but I think they can last longer than Europe can without Oil and Gas.

The pressure will mount, people will start to go without, and sanctions will lessen. At the end Russia will have Ukraine and the world will carry on as before muchly.

That's my guess at this stage.

neb

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#2878502 3-Mar-2022 20:11

rugrat:
Bit coin is soaring as Russians buy up large.

This might finally be what drives government regulation of this giant Ponzi scheme. Serving organised crime and drug dealers has been tolerated so far, but given the current sanctions-everywhere mood it could well lead to the bigger exchanges being targeted for long-overdue regulation.

neb

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#2878510 3-Mar-2022 20:49

This should also go into the "Makes you smile" thread:

Ukraine authorities say seized Russian tanks don’t need to be declared on tax form

“Have you captured a Russian tank or armoured personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the motherland!” Ukraine’s National Agency for the Protection against Corruption (NAPC) said, according to the Ukraine arm of the Interfax news service.

The agency went on to explain there was “no need to declare the captured Russian tanks and other equipment, because the cost of this ... does not exceed 100 living wages (UAH248,100) ($8,298).”

As an aside, is it maybe time to update the thread's title? This has gone far beyond tensions, perhaps "Putin's War" or "The war in Ukraine"?

JaseNZ

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#2878526 3-Mar-2022 21:45

Big reversal by the IPC

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300531059/ukraine-live-russian-belarusian-athletes-banned-from-paralympics

Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding : Ice cream man , Ice cream man

K8Toledo

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#2878549 3-Mar-2022 23:33

networkn:

Russia still has two very powerful cards to play. Oil and Gas. Russia has been dirt poor before, they would need to ride it out, but I think they can last longer than Europe can without Oil and Gas.

The pressure will mount, people will start to go without, and sanctions will lessen. At the end Russia will have Ukraine and the world will carry on as before muchly.

That's my guess at this stage.

Putin has exploited Western Europe's dependance on Russian oil & gas in the past. But the attack on Ukraine threatens the security of Europe, sanctions imposed on Russia will become more severe.

At the UN emergency summit last week did there was discussion of completely cutting oil and gas supply from Russia even though that would hurt the EU. That discussion for now has been put aside.

Essentially the EU & NATO are waging financial war against Putin.

I think the overall objective is not the collapse of the Russian economy but the undermining of Putin's support. Putin either realises the invasion isn't worth it, or he is removed by his own people.

If the Russian economy is destroyed in the process, so be it.

gzt

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#2878550 3-Mar-2022 23:35

Ukraine Government appeals for crypto-currency donation:

SaltyNZ

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#2878558 4-Mar-2022 06:44

neb: It's fluctuating around 100:1 against currencies like the USD and Euro, so yes. Also their sovereign credit rating has been dropped to junk by several of the ratings agencies. They're now in the same league as Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Uruguay.

Anyone want to start a syndicate to buy our own ex-Russian mechanised brigade? I love my EVs but once traffic gets back to normal I reckon the occasional commute in a T-72 might be cathartic.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

Batman

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#2878564 4-Mar-2022 07:05

Batman:

a madman with a bruised ego challenged by his bullied victim and backed into a corner will not behave predictably or rationally

i don't see Putin stopping until he's dead

the only question i have is, will we have WW3 or will the EU just stand and watch

i think i know the answer after the last couple of days

we, the world are just going to stand and watch ukraine burn, so that we don't burn ourselves

i'm not sure i can swallow this

glory to ukraine

GV27

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#2878567 4-Mar-2022 07:34

freitasm:

Oligarchs aren't used to competition. They will want "rules" similar to the ones they have in Russia. That means corruption, mafia, etc.

Be trapped in Russia, a country with a history of forceful revolution, living with pariah status as the living standards of ordinary citizens plummets due to sanctions, or Go West and play by the same rules as everyone else without fear of being, you know, eaten? Seems like an easy decision to me.

Isn't this why they have their own private Lear Jets on standby 24/7, and a few passports/citizenships as back-ups?

tdgeek

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#2878569 4-Mar-2022 07:35

K8Toledo:

Putin has exploited Western Europe's dependance on Russian oil & gas in the past. But the attack on Ukraine threatens the security of Europe, sanctions imposed on Russia will become more severe.

At the UN emergency summit last week did there was discussion of completely cutting oil and gas supply from Russia even though that would hurt the EU. That discussion for now has been put aside.

Essentially the EU & NATO are waging financial war against Putin.

I think the overall objective is not the collapse of the Russian economy but the undermining of Putin's support. Putin either realises the invasion isn't worth it, or he is removed by his own people.

If the Russian economy is destroyed in the process, so be it.

Agree. US is releasing oil reserves, others will be asked to produce more. Last time I looked Russia produces 11% of the global oil supply and consumes about 3%, so its an option to remove/reduce that and pick it up elsewhere

Economic war. The more Putin targets citizens as is the case now, the deeper he digs his hole. The last thing we need is a resurgent modern USSR, allied with the already powerful China.

tdgeek

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#2878618 4-Mar-2022 07:40

Batman:

i think i know the answer after the last couple of days

we, the world are just going to stand and watch ukraine burn, so that we don't burn ourselves

i'm not sure i can swallow this

glory to ukraine

And if the US attacked, it would be criticised, and WW3. Right now its a war to isolate and back Russia into a corner financially, then see how the people and the Military and Government of Russia view Putin then.

GV27

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#2878765 4-Mar-2022 10:00

tdgeek:

And if the US attacked, it would be criticised, and WW3. Right now its a war to isolate and back Russia into a corner financially, then see how the people and the Military and Government of Russia view Putin then.

Yea, these sanctions are pretty next level. You're talking near total collapse of the Russian economy like in the late 1990s, the end of their first market cycle in the post-Soviet era at the bare minimum. It could arguably get worse if Putin goes down the Iron Curtain route. It's by no means sitting back and just taking it.

To give you an idea of how finely balanced this is, the US cancelled a Minuteman test just so there was no change of a Norwegian Rocket incident happening again. They can't declare a NFZ because then they'd have to police it, and shooting down a non-compliant Russian jet would basically kick-off WW3. They're basically right up against the edge of what is possible without directly engaging with Russia directly themselves. And the Russians themselves aren't exactly keeping quiet, with protesters being arrested en-masse.

If Putin takes UKR, then these sanctions are only going to get worse. If he starts incursions into countries like Moldovia then there will be huge pressure on NATO nations to act militarily. There will be years of plans and simulations for this exact scenario, and plenty of dark-state stuff going on as well. You plan for all eventualities, but you do everything in your power to avoid using the worst ones. There does come a point where you don't have a choice, but we are not there yet.