2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3257749 9-Jul-2024 14:26

Rikkitic:

Unfortunately I think you may be at least partly right here. But if anyone does replace Biden it will almost certainly be Kamala Harris. I don't have an opinion on whether she can beat Trump or not, but if she does become the candidate, I think she will emerge much better than many are expecting. Once she is no longer in Biden's shadow and doesn't feel she needs to defer to him, she can show what she is really made of. I think many will be surprised.

A piece on exactly this: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/kamala-harris-vs-trump-the-race-america-needs

SJB

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#3257759 9-Jul-2024 15:02

I just can't imagine America electing a black woman as President.

Would the swing states of Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin go for her? They sound pretty white and male to me.

ezbee

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#3257763 9-Jul-2024 15:13

Americans are funny, and maybe that's what preys on minds of some around Biden.
Keeps him in the race ?

They can turn up to vote for the familiar they voted for last time.
Presidents tend to get a second term even if not at all great.
Trump almost did and he was a calamity.
Biden has religious credentials.
He is male which should not be an issue but reality in much of America etc.

It's just crazy to think that almost any candidate can't beat another who is as reprehensible as Trump is.
Mr 'Dictator for a Day'
'I don't know what 2025 is', yeh right.

Any candidate that is accepting of limits of presidential powers, proper process etc is infinitely safer.
For a candidate that follows rules, powers of House and Senate that do most of the work.
In MAGAS case do almost no work because they can't compromise.

Heck we can see that a Supreme Court is not going to give a Democrat President an easy ride,
while already with Trump its 'Chocks Away'.

That there is a concern that Kamala Harris may not be able to win vs Mr 'Dictator for a Day'.
Says too much about state of America.

USA voter turnout is low has been as little as 50% and last one 62%,
So the disempowered have lots of power but.

Paul1977

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#3257773 9-Jul-2024 15:35

The Dems really do find themselves in a situation of their own making, and one that I don't think they can get themselves out of without losing the election and starting with a fresh candidate in 2028.

What they needed to do was to bring up a young and charismatic candidate to defeat Trump in 2020. Someone who could have been a strong two term President in their prime.

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#3257790 9-Jul-2024 16:34

Rikkitic: As I think I stated, I have not taken a position on Biden's competence. I have said that the verdict is not yet in and is still under consideration.

The problem is that the stakes are infinitely higher in this case. This isn't "Is it time for granddad to go into care or will still he be OK by himself for awhile?" where if you get it wrong nothing much happens apart from the house plants dying because granddad keeps forgetting to water them, this is a case of putting up someone capable of opposing a maniac who could well destroy the US as a democracy if he wins. Playing someone who, fingers crossed, might be OK if we're lucky, is really not the sort of thing you want to do in this situation.

In any case Biden has signalled he's not going to step down, which means the only hope of having a meaningful challenger to Trump is gone.

gzt

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#3257838 9-Jul-2024 18:20

Batman:
"We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," the report said. "It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him -- by then a former president well into his eighties -- of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness."

I don't think you can read too much into those kinds of denials in court. It is otherwise known as The Reagan Defense.

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gzt

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#3257846 9-Jul-2024 18:40

Paul1977: Reporters are meant to get the evidence to prove or disprove a claim - that's the "investigative" part of investigative journalism. What did the media do to investigate previous claims that Biden's mental faculties appeared to be declining before declaring them false (other than ask the White House)?

Not exactly. Reporters primarily are there to report accurately what was said or report what occurred based on witnesses, including any counterclaims and denials. It is harder than many people think it is.

Investigative journalism goes one level deeper and seeks evidence. I think that is mostly a function of the broadcast channels and traditional newspapers.

Compared to the millions Tucker Carlson and his cable left equivalent are paid for a hour of bloviating per week it would be much better value for democracy if it was spent on investigative journalism I agree. Unfortunately there's apparently a big market for bloviating.

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#3257848 9-Jul-2024 18:49

Paul1977: I think they made Harris his running mate in 2020 expecting her to be popular and to run in Biden's place in 2024. But because she's proven to be so unpopular that plan is out the window, so they figured they could just prop Biden up long enough to be re-elected and then have a fresh candidate in 2028, but now that's potentially out the window too. They were already on Plan B, and they have no Plan C.

There is a lot of alignment between Biden and Harris. I don't think she's proven to be unpopular at all. 1st term Presidents generally like the vice-president to be somewhat invisible. I think that's the main reason Harris has been less visible. As for planning that far ahead I'm fairly sure no political party in USA really does that for presidential candidates. The parties pick a winner on the day and that's all.

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#3257856 9-Jul-2024 19:01

neb: In any case Biden has signalled he's not going to step down,

Yes and no. Imo Biden would/will step down immediately if he thought there was a better candidate with a much better chance of winning. Harris might become that candidate or might not. I think it would probably help if Harris stepped up a bit.

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#3257868 9-Jul-2024 19:45

Not sure if this should go here or in the Trump thread, but I had a read of a high-level overview of this Project 2025 thing after hearing only bits and pieces about it, and I must say I personally find it all quite alarming. Basically stacks the deck against any Democratic president who ever wins any election, but if Trump gets in again and all this stuff gets implemented, it's going to be very tough for any non-MAGA president who follows him:

https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/07/03/project-2025-trump-us-government/?cb_rec=djRfMQ

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#3257869 9-Jul-2024 19:48

gzt:
neb: In any case Biden has signalled he's not going to step down,

Yes and no. Imo Biden would/will step down immediately if he thought there was a better candidate with a much better chance of winning. Harris might become that candidate or might not. I think it would probably help if Harris stepped up a bit.

I think he's made it pretty clear that he's not going to let go:

Now that you have returned from the July 4th recess, I want you to know that despite all the speculation in the press and elsewhere, I am firmly committed to staying in this race, to running this race to the end, and to beating Donald Trump.

[X] staying in this race,

[X] running this race to the end

[???] beating Donald Trump

The first two are things you can commit to, the last is something you can only hope for. And given the stakes...

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#3258020 10-Jul-2024 09:38

Paul1977:

The Dems really do find themselves in a situation of their own making, and one that I don't think they can get themselves out of without losing the election and starting with a fresh candidate in 2028.

What they needed to do was to bring up a young and charismatic candidate to defeat Trump in 2020. Someone who could have been a strong two term President in their prime.

Michelle Obama would ace it. If she wanted to.

Rikkitic

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#3258026 10-Jul-2024 09:57

Here is an interesting idea: The Constitution says a person cannot be eligible to be elected president more than twice. It does not specifically say a person cannot be president more than twice. It also says someone not eligible to be president cannot be vice president. But the eligibility only has to do with being elected. So Barack Obama could conceivably run with Biden as vice presidential candidate. Obviously this would create all kinds of precedent rule bending constitutional issues but hey, the Republicans do it all the time!

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Paul1977

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#3258106 10-Jul-2024 13:21

Batman:

Michelle Obama would ace it. If she wanted to.

I'm not so sure. Would she get the all-important swing votes and moderates?

And what are her qualifications other than being the wife of the last decent president?

Paul1977

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#3258108 10-Jul-2024 13:27

Rikkitic:

Here is an interesting idea: The Constitution says a person cannot be eligible to be elected president more than twice. It does not specifically say a person cannot be president more than twice. It also says someone not eligible to be president cannot be vice president. But the eligibility only has to do with being elected. So Barack Obama could conceivably run with Biden as vice presidential candidate. Obviously this would create all kinds of precedent rule bending constitutional issues but hey, the Republicans do it all the time!

And Biden steps down on Jan 21, making Obama president? The endgame would be completely transparent and obvious, but if it's not breaking any rules why not I guess?

They could then bring in a suitable person as vice president who would then run in Obama's place in 2028 (since Obama wouldn't be allowed).

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