Our next national election - policies, promises and people

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#2427671 26-Feb-2020 18:18

Has there ever been an NZ politician so pompous and petty as Shane Jones? There is a man whose love of himself knows no bounds

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/119823971/infrastructure-minister-shane-jones-uninvites-bit-player-simon-bridges-from-infrastructure-conference

tdgeek

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#2427690 26-Feb-2020 19:01

shk292:

Has there ever been an NZ politician so pompous and petty as Shane Jones? There is a man whose love of himself knows no bounds

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/119823971/infrastructure-minister-shane-jones-uninvites-bit-player-simon-bridges-from-infrastructure-conference

100%. I don't have an issue with Peters, if you want to pick on a politician for being a ratbag, and so on, you have many choices. But Jones has to go, and that means NZF has to go. NZF crossed me by blocking the EV feebate. There are stuff all people in NZ politics who have an interest in clean waterways, nitrates, climate change. And NZF has joined that list. Here, when you have a bi partisan meeting, its BI PARTISAN.

Go National or Go Labour/Greens, alone.

Fred99

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#2428683 28-Feb-2020 11:04

Are National and the coalition on the same page WRT response the the coming epidemic?

Just that the "standard" response to a recessionary trend is to apply stimulus targeting demand, but this recessionary trend isn't going to be stimulated by the usual means, as it's partly a supply side issue (can't get stuff out of China), at this stage it's mainly an imported problem, and it's also not going to be able to be fixed by handing out free money / tax cuts as stimulus.

Mahon

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#2429091 28-Feb-2020 21:51

Fred99:

Are National and the coalition on the same page WRT response the the coming epidemic?

Just that the "standard" response to a recessionary trend is to apply stimulus targeting demand, but this recessionary trend isn't going to be stimulated by the usual means, as it's partly a supply side issue (can't get stuff out of China), at this stage it's mainly an imported problem, and it's also not going to be able to be fixed by handing out free money / tax cuts as stimulus.

I'm more interested in what the Health system is geared up for? Hospitals dont seem to be able to cope with winter flues etc now let alone a pandemic. It was only a couple of weeks ago that our beloved Health Minister was downplaying the whole scenario for NZ. Not only is our economy in for a major short term hit but our Health system is in for a disaster.

Fred99

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#2429143 29-Feb-2020 08:58

Mahon:

Fred99:

Are National and the coalition on the same page WRT response the the coming epidemic?

Just that the "standard" response to a recessionary trend is to apply stimulus targeting demand, but this recessionary trend isn't going to be stimulated by the usual means, as it's partly a supply side issue (can't get stuff out of China), at this stage it's mainly an imported problem, and it's also not going to be able to be fixed by handing out free money / tax cuts as stimulus.

I'm more interested in what the Health system is geared up for? Hospitals dont seem to be able to cope with winter flues etc now let alone a pandemic. It was only a couple of weeks ago that our beloved Health Minister was downplaying the whole scenario for NZ. Not only is our economy in for a major short term hit but our Health system is in for a disaster.

No health system anywhere is "geared up" for a pandemic the size that this one could become locally.
FWIW NZ compares quite favourably with other first-world countries in terms of # of hospital beds per 1,000 people. I understand that in the US now - hospitals are at 95% capacity due to it being the tail-end of quite a bad flu season. They have fewer beds per 1,000 population than NZ.
If you assume 20% hospitalisation rate for diagnosed/symptomatic patients and a starting point of having all existing hospital beds vacant, then you'd reach capacity by the time between 1 and 3% of the population were infected in every first-world country, so all countries would run out of capacity long before a local epidemic reached those moderate levels. I don't see it (availability of facilities) as a partisan issue here. If done by any party, then that's just opportunistic point scoring "cheap shots".

ezbee

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#2459608 11-Apr-2020 22:21

In any other election year it would be all previews of key policies campaign launches about now .
For now all i hear are Sparrows chirping , Minors ,occasional Tui and Pigeon ( Common , not the Wood kind ).
Darn I don't get fantails in the city.

Its hard to see how Political campaigns are going to make traction while CV19 is doing its thing.
Election may even be in midst of its second CV19 round.

Your economic policies developed over last year might as well go in the trash.
Are roads of national significance and less 1 way bridges still a winner with voters traumatized by CV19.
Priorities for people with recession incomes paying for mortgages based on bubble pricing.
With necessary Government spending , tax base down to two supermarket chains , farming and primary products.
Even Tiwai Point smelter is looking shaky unless we give them a subsidy.
Tourism won;t exist for quite some time.

Social Credit , please come back all is forgiven :-) Well no not really.

Do we need to read up on how politics changed during great depression for a clue ?

While there is certainly something else to the Peters, 'can we please delay' , what kind of campaign can there be on present timetable. ?
I find it hard to put together the motivation to react to the last Shane Jones outburst, I'm sure it was something but I forgot it already.

What does everyone think .

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tdgeek

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#2459643 12-Apr-2020 07:38

It can only be about recovery, which will take years. Everyone will have to expect Govt austerity, and it comes down to who promises the best recovery at the lowest cost to the individual. Then some masses may want help help help. The best a Govt can do is assess all infrastructure spending, and target those that suck up more jobs per each million spent. Doesn't matter if its "what I want" it has to be spending that creates more jobs. The public needs to get a grip and tell themselves that any campaign and subsequent budgets cannot be about what I get out of it. A Party might campaign on tough choices which we need to accept. A Party may campaign on we will fix everything, here are tax cuts enjoy those. Some expert needs to assess what the public want, as my feeling is the public are more likely to accept tough choices, no free money, so we can get the economy back on track.

As to if the Election is Sept 19 or Nov 19, the virus will still be a big part of life. National needs to be careful, as the Govt has handled the economy well, and the virus well, if they go bashing the Govt they may come unstuck. They need to talk about what they can do better, medium term wise.

Fred99

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#2465742 19-Apr-2020 21:43

itxtme:

Fred99:

Don't presume to know what "I realise", please.

Then feel free to discuss what I talked about in my post rather than ignoring it. There is 0 political content, just cold hard facts about what lockdown does to our economy and society, and the correlation those things also have with mortality and morbidity (not just health morbidity either).

It is political.

The outcome of "containment" is unknown, the economic impact of "elimination" (vs "containment") is unknown. It's a choice of bad and also bad - so I'm going with the one that's going to cause less immediate death and despair = less bad.

There's nothing to talk about in terms of "comparing strategies" when you and I don't know. If you want to ramble on with "I reckon this and that" like drunks at a pub or talkback radio - then do it here, please.

Meanwhile, if the point of this is to suggest that out PM and MoH are less able to lead and decide how we control this epidemic than Winston Peters - then there's no point even talking about it over a beer - 'cause you're not even on the right page.

GV27

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#2465848 20-Apr-2020 09:15

Fred99:

Meanwhile, if the point of this is to suggest that out PM and MoH are less able to lead and decide how we control this epidemic than Winston Peters - then there's no point even talking about it over a beer - 'cause you're not even on the right page.

I tried pointing this out in the other thread, but Winston Peters is the Deputy PM. He is part of cabinet and will be getting the same information they do. He is 2nd in the Government only to Ardern. What about Jacinda Ardern being PM gives her special insight over Winston as Deputy PM.

Furthermore, why do people get so riled up when people remind them that a prolonged lock-down will have massive social and economic consequences?

bmt

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#2465862 20-Apr-2020 09:37

Since we are still 5 months out from the election anything can happen, but assessing where we are now it seems a likely Labour government, and then would depend who they want to take along with them. From unscientific polls from Stuff and Newshub it looks like 60-65% of people want Level 4 extended, to go with the 80%+ who thought the government was handling the situation well a couple of weeks ago.

It would take something going majorly wrong for the government for National to win this election. Simon Bridges hasn't done anything to improve his standing over the last couple of months, and the rest of the National party have had little to no air time or column inches. It looks like NZ First is gunning for leaving lockdown on time, whereas Labour may be leaning towards an extension. I imagine if the lockdown continutes there may be tension, but would that be enough for NZ First to considering flipping to support National?

Looking at the numbers from above I speculate that the majority of the 35-40% that want to move to Level 3 are made up of core National voters, and possibly the opposite for those who want to stay. The CEO of my company is an avid National supporter and wants to leave immediately to get the business running again.

Fred99

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#2465904 20-Apr-2020 10:39

GV27:

I tried pointing this out in the other thread, but Winston Peters is the Deputy PM. He is part of cabinet and will be getting the same information they do. He is 2nd in the Government only to Ardern. What about Jacinda Ardern being PM gives her special insight over Winston as Deputy PM.

Furthermore, why do people get so riled up when people remind them that a prolonged lock-down will have massive social and economic consequences?

Because we're effectively at war with this disease - and if it's allowed to get out of control then the social and economic toll will be much greater. So you missed out mentioning that fact - he advocated lifting lockdowns ASAP - not "subject to expert advice", but because he thinks so. Peters should STFU and stick to his portfolios, not undermine experts or try to pre-empt the decision to be made today.

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Varkk

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#2465922 20-Apr-2020 11:01

Fred99:

Peters should STFU and stick to his portfolios, not undermine experts or try to pre-empt the decision to be made today.

As a senior member of Cabinet he needs to STFU and stick to the unified message Cabinet decides on. PM Ardern has been very obvious in not hinting at which way they will decide this afternoon. Not even saying what her personal thoughts or opinion might be so that she doesn't pre-empt cabinet. One of the main rules of Cabinet is that the discussions like this take place behind closed doors and when a decision is reached they come out and keep a united front in the messaging around it. As a senior cabinet member and a vast amount of experience he knows this. He is just trying to play a bit of politics here for the people who want to lift the lockdown.

Rikkitic

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#2467270 21-Apr-2020 18:20

According to TV1 just now, the LOO (Leader Of the Opposition) scored a massive 24,000 (!) mostly critical responses when he posted yet another whinge about government Covid 19 policy. I don't like him as a politician and I probably wouldn't like him as a person, but that aside his massive inability to 'read' the public mood must already completely disqualify him for any kind of leadership role in this country.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

tdgeek

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#2467303 21-Apr-2020 19:10

Rikkitic:

According to TV1 just now, the LOO (Leader Of the Opposition) scored a massive 24,000 (!) mostly critical responses when he posted yet another whinge about government Covid 19 policy. I don't like him as a politician and I probably wouldn't like him as a person, but that aside his massive inability to 'read' the public mood must already completely disqualify him for any kind of leadership role in this country.

He really screwed it up. I posted that I was impressed by him as leader of the select committee. Held the Govt and MoH to account without being complain complain complain. The Govt set that select committee as weighted to National. How much open and fair can you be, and he was good. But in the end the cream sank to the bottom.. An opportunity lost. Nuff said.

GV27

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#2467544 22-Apr-2020 07:51

He's finished, and will be swapped out before the election. Not worth talking about.

Interesting though that Bridges gets slammed for not being up to scratch as a communicator yet Ministers of this Government are effectively unsackable for incompetence or alleged corruption.

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