Why I wont vote National

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#1870058 21-Sep-2017 10:41

If it is really close both will be working hard to form partnerships so they can show the Crown they have the right to form a Government. The party with the biggest block of seats(including List) but a theoretical minority is usually invited first, they will be asked if they believe they can govern either with coalition partners or alone as a minority Government. That is a nightmare position and one we may well find ourselves in. It is why I have been saying I believe there will be an election well before 2020.

tdgeek

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#1870073 21-Sep-2017 10:51

MikeB4:

If it is really close both will be working hard to form partnerships so they can show the Crown they have the right to form a Government. The party with the biggest block of seats(including List) but a theoretical minority is usually invited first, they will be asked if they believe they can govern either with coalition partners or alone as a minority Government. That is a nightmare position and one we may well find ourselves in. It is why I have been saying I believe there will be an election well before 2020.

I am sure the Greens will be comfortably above 5%, there is enough eco issues going on for them. Winston, Im sure will be over 5% even if his support has subsided, so thats potentially 10% for Labour who would then need 40% themselves, less if Maori go with them. National needs less but they have less. ACT, UF and Maori may not all be there this time round. Peters is also an option. I dont see a minority Govt, I see a lolly scramble and lots of spending offered.

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#1870083 21-Sep-2017 10:54

My understanding is there's no requirement for the party with the greatest number of seats to be given 'first dibs' in forming a government, though I'm happy to be told if I'm wrong on this!

Winston Peters has talked previously about a 'convention' to first negotiate with the largest party, a matter on which he doesn't seem to be holding to quite as strongly this time around (it was covered in the fractious interview Guyon Espiner did with Peters on RNZ last week).

And people may remember back to the 1996 election - the first with MMP - in which NZ First had the balance of power, and essentially played Labour off against National, given both needed NZF to govern. That was, if I remember, many weeks of 'negotiations' as Peters took the opportunity to get what he could.\

Edit: to add text from an article re coalition-building post-election:

Our citizens' role in this process is limited to casting our votes and thereby determining the distribution of seats among successful parties. What happens next is in the hands of those we have elected to Parliament. Curiously, but in keeping with the pretty loose way in which we run our constitution here in Aotearoa New Zealand, it transpires that there aren't terribly many formal rules governing how the politicians we elect on Saturday will go about cobbling together the next government.

...

In the absence of formal procedures, about the only thing we can be sure of is that the requirement that Parliament must meet roughly two months after the election will provide a strong political incentive for parties to have completed discussions by the time they all reconvene in the new Parliament. Beyond that, it's over to them – which leads Boston to characterise as "free-style" the process through which we go about forming governments here. This isn't to suggest that it's all madness and mayhem. In fact, since 1996 – which those of us old enough to remember will recall as a very steep learning curve for all concerned – the political and bureaucratic classes have become very good at putting Governments together.

In 1996 and 2005 it took nine and four weeks respectively, but in all other elections things have been counted in days rather than weeks. And we've become comfortable with minority Governments (we haven't had a majority Government since the late 1990s), and very good at knitting them together using confidence and supply agreements.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/96980430/so-ive-voted--now-remind-me-what-happens-next

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#1870085 21-Sep-2017 10:58

An interesting outcome could result from NZF not getting over the threshold and Peters not holding Northland; National may have the most seats in parliament, but they'd have no-one bar Act (potentially!) and maybe Maori that would consider going into a coalition with (or offer confidence and supply to) them.

MikeB4

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#1870096 21-Sep-2017 11:05

This one of the craziest elections I can remember, the opinion polls are all over the place. The only poll that matters is this Saturday (hallelujah). I think it will be several weeks before we know who will be the new Government (interim Government). Be ready for a hit in the pocket during the cat fight, interest rates and exchange rates are going to take a swipe at us.

MikeB4

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#1870101 21-Sep-2017 11:08

As for the full process I am going from memory from my working days and what the manual said.Those memories are thankfully being placed on back up drives.

tdgeek

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#1870116 21-Sep-2017 11:25

MikeB4:

This one of the craziest elections I can remember, the opinion polls are all over the place. The only poll that matters is this Saturday (hallelujah). I think it will be several weeks before we know who will be the new Government (interim Government). Be ready for a hit in the pocket during the cat fight, interest rates and exchange rates are going to take a swipe at us.

One poll is landline only, surely these days, that cuts out a huge swath of a demographic? Captures more older voters rather than a general sample

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gulfa

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#1870126 21-Sep-2017 11:33

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

This one of the craziest elections I can remember, the opinion polls are all over the place. The only poll that matters is this Saturday (hallelujah). I think it will be several weeks before we know who will be the new Government (interim Government). Be ready for a hit in the pocket during the cat fight, interest rates and exchange rates are going to take a swipe at us.

One poll is landline only, surely these days, that cuts out a huge swath of a demographic? Captures more older voters rather than a general sample

Interesting reading Stuff comments by voters definitely favour National. TV 3 Project surprising results in Housing and Tax hugely in favour of Labour 70=% to 25+%

Really is an unknown considering Land- lines from Colmar Brunton Wait in anticipation

Wouldn't bet on anyone at the moment. Wouldn't be surprised to see a big gap as well

frednz

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#1870143 21-Sep-2017 12:03

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

This one of the craziest elections I can remember, the opinion polls are all over the place. The only poll that matters is this Saturday (hallelujah). I think it will be several weeks before we know who will be the new Government (interim Government). Be ready for a hit in the pocket during the cat fight, interest rates and exchange rates are going to take a swipe at us.

One poll is landline only, surely these days, that cuts out a huge swath of a demographic? Captures more older voters rather than a general sample

I think the main problem with the polls is that the sample size is probably way too low.

If there are about 70 electorates and you have a sample size of only 1000 voters, then you are only asking, on average, about 14 people per electorate who they would vote for.

Because each electorate can be quite different, I would think you would need a minimum of 100 voters per electorate and an overall sample size of about 7000 before you can get a reasonably good idea of voters' preferences.

Rikkitic

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#1870315 21-Sep-2017 15:07

I have been ill all afternoon. Really miserable, stuffy, sniffly, itchy mouth, dizzy, want to do myself in, can't get out of bed ill. Fortunately I have my new tablet with me. Geekzone keeps me sane.

The landline rings. It rings and rings and rings. I don't have voicemail on it. Don't ask why. Finally it stops. Then it starts again. Painfully I crawl out of bed and make my way across the room, bashing into things as I go. I pick the phone up. "Hello, this is Bill English..."

I didn't hear more because that is when I broke the phone. I so much wish there was a way to vote against that miserable invasive weed more than just twice. What an utter contempt for the personal privacy of people at home, who may be ill, or engaged in the marital battle of their lives, or just watching TV - it is no f-ing business of whoever decides to stomp uninvited on it. This is at least as rude as those cold calling Microsoft virus vendors.

I have a (greatly toned down for the FUG) suggestion for National: If you want to be just like America in all things so much, why don't you just move there!

Ok, everyone tell me now that Labour, etc. are doing exactly the same thing. Maybe they are. I hope not. At least they didn't ring me out of my sick bed.

Jeesus, what a stupid world this has become.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

MikeB4

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#1870326 21-Sep-2017 15:17

Rikkitic:

I have been ill all afternoon. Really miserable, stuffy, sniffly, itchy mouth, dizzy, want to do myself in, can't get out of bed ill. Fortunately I have my new tablet with me. Geekzone keeps me sane.

The landline rings. It rings and rings and rings. I don't have voicemail on it. Don't ask why. Finally it stops. Then it starts again. Painfully I crawl out of bed and make my way across the room, bashing into things as I go. I pick the phone up. "Hello, this is Bill English..."

I didn't hear more because that is when I broke the phone. I so much wish there was a way to vote against that miserable invasive weed more than just twice. What an utter contempt for the personal privacy of people at home, who may be ill, or engaged in the marital battle of their lives, or just watching TV - it is no f-ing business of whoever decides to stomp uninvited on it. This is at least as rude as those cold calling Microsoft virus vendors.

I have a (greatly toned down for the FUG) suggestion for National: If you want to be just like America in all things so much, why don't you just move there!

Ok, everyone tell me now that Labour, etc. are doing exactly the same thing. Maybe they are. I hope not. At least they didn't ring me out of my sick bed.

Jeesus, what a stupid world this has become.

Get rid of the landline and get a cellphone. I never get survey, political or sales calls.

networkn

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#1870344 21-Sep-2017 15:33

Rikkitic:

I have been ill all afternoon. Really miserable, stuffy, sniffly, itchy mouth, dizzy, want to do myself in, can't get out of bed ill. Fortunately I have my new tablet with me. Geekzone keeps me sane.

Sorry to hear you are unwell. Get better soon!

Wiggum

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#1870352 21-Sep-2017 15:42

MikeB4:

Get rid of the landline and get a cellphone. I never get survey, political or sales calls.

Or just set it up to ignore calls from unknown numbers.

We have a landline (voip 2 talk phone, is that a landline?), and we never receive such calls.

MikeB4

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#1870354 21-Sep-2017 15:48

Wiggum:

MikeB4:

Get rid of the landline and get a cellphone. I never get survey, political or sales calls.

Or just set it up to ignore calls from unknown numbers.

We have a landline (voip 2 talk phone, is that a landline?), and we never receive such calls.

too much hassle, no landline is easier. I do miss the Microsoft support calls though, they were fun.

jonathan18

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#1870358 21-Sep-2017 15:51

Russell Brown’s latest post on Public Address highlights some of the areas of moral failure of National’s current reign, sourced from https://publicaddress.net/hardnews/the-day-after-tomorrow/ . Not sure how so many people can still claim that National is doing an acceptable (let alone good) job of running this country.

Apologies for the long excerpt, but it makes interesting reading.

—

Bank economists are not poets, but I wonder if the survey results have a metaphorical weight. On the same day that the consumer confidence results were released, the New Zealand Herald published Kirsty Johnston’s shocking revelation that malnutrition is putting twice as many New Zealand children in hospital as it was 10 years ago. One researcher quoted by Kirsty said she had heard of people taking sleeping pills on a Friday in an attempt to sleep through the weekend and avoid needing to buy food.

Although food prices have risen and food takes up a high proportion of poor families’ incomes, the background factor is probably housing costs. Three weeks ago, Kirsty (again) revealed data showing that damp, overcrowded homes are killing 20 New Zealand children a year and sending 30,000 to hospital with preventable housing-related diseases, including the “third-world” disease bronchiectasis, which causes permanent lung damage. The story quotes the Royal Australasian College of Physicians as saying: “Inequities in health outcomes will persist unless such stark social inequities are urgently addressed.”

Hunger in the here and now is a moral indictment, but it’s also a generational calamity. Hunger impairs health and learning, it has enduring social and economic consequences. I was furious and astonished earlier this month when Bill English responded to a Checkpoint story that found two thirds of kids at a South Auckland school were turning up without lunch by venturing that “our plan” would eventually lift people out of poverty.

You can’t just respond to immediate need by saying things will be sweet later. It’s like responding to a ruptured fuel pipeline with an assurance that in the future everyone will be driving electric cars.

On the same day as the consumer confidence survey and Kirsty’s story, Health minister Jonathan Coleman declared that unacceptable waits for cancer surgery for patients under the Southern District Health Board were not the fault of the government. The SDHB is also struggling to provide mental health services – but it’is not alone there. In the last two years the number of people seen by a GP for a diagnosed mental health illness has risen 22% and the system is simply not coping.

These stories and others are not appearing simply because there’s an election campaign on. They’re just the sh|t hitting the fan.

I’ve been working on a story of my own in the past couple of weeks – about the sudden crisis around “synthetic cannabis”, which has claimed as many as 20 mostly young lives in recent months. I was glad to finish it – it was making me angry. The sudden crisis isn’t really sudden: it’s been developing for at least three years.

The current government got synthetics out of the headlines three years ago (during the last election campaign) with the retail ban, and then essentially lost interest. The two formal surveys that told us the problem had not in fact gone away were de-funded this year – and nothing has been budgeted for the early-warning system touted as a solution.

I interviewed a young, Māori woman from West Auckland , clean three months after using for three years, and what she told me really shook me. But these are easy people to ignore.

The implications of this drift in “my” policy area continuing are alarming. As I’ve noted previously, the next Parliamentary term contains a once-in-two-generations opportunity in the compulsory review of the Misuse of Drugs Act 1974.

My faith in anyone in the present goverment to get this right is roughly zero. National’s belated campaign promise to put money into related health and rehab services came packaged with its pledge to ramp up beneficiary drug-testing, a policy for which it could not only not cite real evidence, but which the evidence contradicts. Like the synthetics ban three years ago, it’s less policy than political marketing.

This isn’t to say I’m over the moon with Labour’s drug policy. Beyond welcome and appropriate sentiments about drug use being a health and a not a criminal issue, it doesn’t really have one. But I’d trust a Labour-Green government to get a positive result out of the review infinitely more than I’d trust a National one, even with Kevin Hague out of the picture.

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