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TeaLeaf
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  #3266659 31-Jul-2024 17:02
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gzt: I can see why Josh Shapiro has favourite odds for VP. 


all of them talk so well and have substance. Wes Moore I think could end up the next black President, he is so quick, so smart, unlike JD he doesnt talk himself up even though unlike JD who saw zero action in Iraq but mentions it all the time, Wes lead teams into Combat. IMO JD just used the Marines to get funding for College and now uses it as a "patriotic" Rhetoric, even though his Trump thinks he is a "sucker and a loser", they like laurel and hardy type comedy, deserve each other.

 

Yes I think Shapiro will get it, mostly because they have to win Penn, but clearly he can talk and like any of these Dems they can do it on the fly. If it wasnt a black female for Pres, I would say Pete Buttigieg. He is a fantastic speaker and like most of them is a realist Democrat. Sxl orientation shouldnt matter, but with a first already with female Pres etc, its the reality of politics and appealing to the smallest mind possible.

I wish we could borrow him for NZ though, Id pick at least fifteen of their best if they were in NZ.

Wow, Harris rallies are LOUD. Not just the music, but the people. It makes the claps from the Trump rallies sound silent. and its genuine, these people are fired up. and Harris is brilliant, genuine, well spoken, FUN. With having young cultural influencers and musicians in her pre show, I can see her getting a lot of lazy young non voters to the ballot. She is prosecuting Trump at the same  time as talking up their own game. I really did not expect her to talk about the border, but the way she explains having walked through the tunnels with the cops as a Prosecutor and taking such crims to court and winning, vs Trump just talking a big game, hits home.

She is also explaining what Trump did to "tank" the bipartisan border bill, which I think is good because most people wont know about it. Most in swing votes in swing states dont know about Trump and Jan 6 ;-p.

Go watch her rally in "Atlanta" today. Its part concert, part rally, part prosecting trump. But its LOUD.

One thing none have addressed though is the approx 7 million people risking their lives on that week long journey acosss the rivers near panama etc. No wall will do jack for such issues. Their rigged election was yesterday. But listen to the NYT "The Daily" podcast, a few days back. It explains it well. IMO the US could do more than put sanctions on the dictator to host "free and faiir" elections. More protesting after the result.




quickymart

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  #3266668 31-Jul-2024 17:18
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gzt

gzt
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  #3266685 31-Jul-2024 19:22
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Batman: Interesting that fox is giving a lot of screen time to Democrat VP candidates!

That one is Fox 29, Philadelphia I think. Fox has 18 regional channels and over 200 affiliate stations.

Fox News is the 'premium' product for those that like unadulterated maximum outrage 24/7 or whatever that unique selling point for cable is. I find it just as hard to watch as CNN. Having said that, I don't subscribe to either.

From my brief viewing many of the Fox local stations and affiliates seem like relatively sane local operators along the lines of tv1/tv3/prime news etc.



gzt

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#3266687 31-Jul-2024 19:28
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FineWine: its so they can pick them apart and create their own fake narrative at a later date

That's probably how Carlson looks at it ; )

TeaLeaf
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  #3266718 31-Jul-2024 22:14
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Harris now leads in 4 of the swing states (Michigan by +11) and one tied and Trump only leads in two (still within margin of error). 

 

Shapiro may now be an even bigger strategical Veep. 

 

I heard her Veep will be on campaign with her by next Tuesday. Some saying announcement before end of the week.


Batman
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  #3266761 1-Aug-2024 08:24
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TeaLeaf: unlike JD he doesnt talk himself up even though unlike JD who saw zero action in Iraq but mentions it all the time, Wes lead teams into Combat. IMO JD just used the Marines to get funding for College and now uses it as a "patriotic" Rhetoric, even though his Trump thinks he is a "sucker and a loser", they like laurel and hardy type comedy, deserve each other.

 

 

JD had everything given to him by Peter Thiel

 

bosses of many (?all) his major posts who have been interviewed said they were instructed (by Thiel) to hire JD for whatever lead position they were told to, and have very little good to say about JD's work ethic.

 

and then magically got installed as VP candidate by Trump, presumably Trump was offered money or something by Thiel. 

 

regarding marines, well, it's possible that even that post was an engineered position though it's possible (quite likely) he was a youthful prodigee at the start of all this.

 

he's a Trump clone, but worse!


quickymart

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  #3266764 1-Aug-2024 08:29
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Indeed, I think Trump chose James to carry on his, uh, "legacy", not to expand his base in any way whatsoever.


 
 
 

Move to New Zealand's best fibre broadband service (affiliate link). Note that to use Quic Broadband you must be comfortable with configuring your own router.
freitasm
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  #3266769 1-Aug-2024 08:40
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quickymart:

 

Indeed, I think Trump chose James to carry on his, uh, "legacy", not to expand his base in any way whatsoever.

 

 

A nice FU to his kids.





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TeaLeaf
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  #3266849 1-Aug-2024 10:22
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quickymart:

 

Indeed, I think Trump chose James to carry on his

 

 

His kids reportedly did the picking, Im presuming his campaign maybe thought he "could" be good for "youth" votes. But he is so out of touch with not just older voters but todays youth.

Go watch the video of Trump attending the NABJ conference (black journalists etc) today, the guy truly believes hes not racist. CNN has the full video but there are plenty of shorter versions too on YT. I think any chance of regaining black votes that Biden was losing that Harris has picked up just got sunk.

 

Im sure Joy Reid on msnbc will cover it too.


quickymart

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  #3266914 1-Aug-2024 11:07
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TeaLeaf
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  #3266975 1-Aug-2024 12:47
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quickymart:

 

 

Is he on X? I would love to know his methodology.

Whilst over time they will give good "thermometer" type readings, those Bloomberg (via morn consult) swing state polls are only between 400-800RV sample sizes. although Michigan I think is pretty reliable with two sample sizes of 706V, both coming back Harris about +10%. 

However other polls have come back in for a couple of individual states which show similar.

Morning consult did a ~12k sample size reg voters which came back Harris 47% Trump 46% general election. Three others in last couple days around the 1500V sample sizes came back Harris +2%, +2%, +4% for the general.

She is well ahead on favorable/unfavorable as well.

 

Given Trumps reluctance to roll back ignoring two term limit in interview and comments today re black folk and Harris, every day he digs a bigger hole.

Harris calling Trump statement trying to distance themselves from P2025 "BS", given the chap resigning a fig leaf as the Policy/Manifest is now complete including their 20k maga loyalists to replace life time Civil servants.

Refusing to debate the lady not a good look, has likely sentencing mid Sept, possible "N" word tape could leak (although his Nephew says in his new book about the Trumps he heard him use the word before etc as well)

I just dont see things getting better for Trump outside some major mistake or "dirt" on his opponent.


SJB

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  #3267108 1-Aug-2024 13:57
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The Dems will get a boost with their convention in a couple of weeks as well.

 

It's not only the Presidential election that's important. The mid-terms are vitally important. If both Houses become Republican Harris will have a very difficult time of it as President.


TeaLeaf
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  #3267127 1-Aug-2024 14:24
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SJB:

 

The Dems will get a boost with their convention in a couple of weeks as well.

 

It's not only the Presidential election that's important. The mid-terms are vitally important. If both Houses become Republican Harris will have a very difficult time of it as President.

 

 

Yes good point, where as trump would not abide by the norms ie mid-terms.

They should get a boost when Shapiro is likely named Veep in the next few days (at least Im pretty confident they will play it safe now). 

 

Then the DNC

 

Then Trumps sentencing mid sept etc.

 

It should in theory keep them on a nice roll.


Rikkitic
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  #3267139 1-Aug-2024 14:52
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Putting aside for a moment the reasons why, Trump’s campaign seems to be imploding. He is making really bad decisions, like picking Vance for VP and agreeing to the black journalists interview. He says dumb things that don’t make any sense. He makes stuff up. He doesn’t prepare and he can’t focus. He doesn’t seem capable of reading a critical audience or adjusting his presentation accordingly. He is needlessly pugnacious when challenged and just rambles on, saying whatever comes into his head.

 

I have to wonder how Biden is taking all this. Withdrawing from the race was really difficult for him and there have been suggestions he feels upset and bitter about it. Does he now feel that he may have made his decision too soon, and if he had just held out a little longer, he could have ridden the wave the way Kamela Harris is now doing? That must be hard for him to wrap his head around. 





Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

 


 


Batman
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  #3267146 1-Aug-2024 14:58
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TeaLeaf:

 

Yes good point, where as trump would not abide by the norms ie mid-terms.

They should get a boost when Shapiro is likely named Veep in the next few days (at least Im pretty confident they will play it safe now). 

 

Then the DNC

 

Then Trumps sentencing mid sept etc.

 

It should in theory keep them on a nice roll.

 

 

Shapiro might be the tactical choice but I'm really impressed by this guy

 


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