2024 US Presidential election thread

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Mad Scientist
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#3267920 4-Aug-2024 07:24

quickymart:

Whoever Harris picks as her VP is probably going to make short work of Vance in a debate - he has barely 18 months in government, whereas all the names I've seen floated about on the Democratic side have significantly more experience.

what debate (:D)? Trump's not debating unless on Fox, so might not see a VP debate either

Batman

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#3267921 4-Aug-2024 07:25

TeaLeaf:

on that topic its becoming clearer fossil fuels will dominate the market, toyota analysis saying at their peak EVs will only make up 30% of the market.

try as we want, you won't rid fossil fuel. without fossil fuel NZ won't get any tourists, iPhones or oranges. even EVs (and ICEs) brought into the country need to be shipped on boats that will choose to burn dirty "heavy fuel oil". most other countries rely on burning something to generate electricity.

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#3267926 4-Aug-2024 07:30

Batman:

quickymart:

Whoever Harris picks as her VP is probably going to make short work of Vance in a debate - he has barely 18 months in government, whereas all the names I've seen floated about on the Democratic side have significantly more experience.

what debate (:D)? Trump's not debating unless on Fox, so might not see a VP debate either

Indeed, so much for him saying, "any time, any place":

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-calls-off-abc-debate-suggests-fox-news-face-off-instead/ar-AA1oaQmI?cvid=99307f5aea8d49f1aa0dbf8a6c0896a5&ei=7

I think he's running scared because he knows Harris will clean the floor with him at a debate, hence why he only wants it on Fox with an audience to egg him on. Coward 🙄

I thought he didn't like Fox anyway because they called Arizona for Biden in 2020? Mind you, "any port in a storm", I suppose...

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#3267928 4-Aug-2024 07:41

Jurassic Park: really clever girl

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#3268094 4-Aug-2024 16:37

Trump at "National Association of Black Journalists"

"I will tell you that coming from the border, are millions and millions of people that happen to be taking Black jobs"

With a very loud gasp came from the audience, and the reporter followed up asked to define a Black job, he disingenuously added: "A Black job is anybody that has a job. That's what it is,"

He said there's an "invasion" of people coming into the country, and that "the Black population is affected most by that."

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#3268101 4-Aug-2024 16:57

This guy sounds like a good middle ground choice for VP.

Minnesota Spice: Gov. Tim Walz, a Harris VP contender, delights Democrats with MAGA mockery | CNN Politics

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#3268163 4-Aug-2024 18:28

That's a new name to me. The host gives an intro to Walz's style and later talks about why Walz is popular and reasons why Walz is a more likely VP pick than Shapiro. Host says Shapiro might still be the pick if Pennsylvania outweighs all the Walz factors.

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#3268170 4-Aug-2024 19:09

Apparently Shapiro volunteered for the IDF when he was younger which would be popular with Jewish voters but might turn off Muslims.

It must be a really difficult job weighing up all the pros and cons for each of the candidates.

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#3268183 4-Aug-2024 20:18

I know who Tim is, but that's mostly because my partner is from Minnesota, so he's her governor. I think if Harris chooses him and goes on to win, the deputy governor becomes the governor for the rest of the term, unlike in our situation where we would have a by-election to vote in a new governor.

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#3268215 4-Aug-2024 22:22

Oh dear (from Brian Tyler Cohen):

SJB

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#3268241 5-Aug-2024 08:07

We don't want this scenario in November. As the Republicans are in the majority in Congress Trump would likely win. It would also be a terrible result for such a divided country. America needs the winner to win comfortably.

What happens if there’s a tie in the presidential election? | CNN Politics

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#3268279 5-Aug-2024 10:22

I remember reading about that in Peril as well - another trick that Trump tried to pull in 2020, to somehow get Mike Pence to say there were "election irregularities" and to basically ignore the votes not for him because he didn't like the fact he lost, and if not throwing the election to the House, this was his "other" plan.

This is one of the relevant passages - the "Lee" referred to is Mike Lee, and the "Eastman" is John Eastman, one of Trump's former disgraced lawyers who has since lost his licence to be a lawyer:

Lee also knew any attempt to make the vice president the critical player in the certification would be a deliberate warping of the Constitution.
Lee had kept telling Mark Meadows and others in the White House and GOP that the vice president was a counting clerk, period. No other role. It was power concisely articulated and capped by those seven words in the 12th Amendment: “and the votes shall then be counted.”
Eastman’s two-page memo turned the standard counting process on its head.
Lee was surprised it came from Eastman, a law school professor who had clerked for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
Lee read on. “Here’s the scenario we propose.” The memo set out six potential steps for the vice president. The third item jumped out at the senator.
He read it again, just to make sure. Pence “announces that because of the ongoing disputes in the 7 States, there are no electors that can be deemed validly appointed in those States.” So, Pence would cut the number of states whose votes would be counted in the election to only 43 states, leaving 454 electors left to decide who wins.
“There are at this point 232 votes for Trump, 222 votes for Biden,” Eastman wrote of such a scenario. “Pence then gavels President Trump as re-elected.”
A procedural action by the vice president to throw out tens of millions of legally cast votes and declare a new winner? Lee’s head was spinning. No such procedure existed in the Constitution, any law or past practice. Eastman apparently had drawn it out of thin air.
Eastman had also thought ahead to the certain outrage and worry of a coup.
That was their ballgame. Either have Pence declare Trump the winner, or make sure it is thrown to the House where Trump is guaranteed to win.
The House had decided the presidential election only twice before in American history. Lee absorbed the rest of Eastman’s memo, which also asserted “Pence should do this without asking for permission.”
“The fact is that the Constitution assigns the power to the Vice President as the ultimate arbiter,” it stated.
Nothing could be further from the truth, Lee knew. The vice president was not the “ultimate arbiter.” Like Quayle, he had memorized the line of the 12th Amendment that said the president of the Senate simply opens “all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted.”
What a mess. Lee had spent nearly two months trying to impress upon Trump and Meadows that they could pursue legal remedies, audits, recounts or other claims. They could file dozens of lawsuits. But their time was limited. “Just remember you’ve got a shot clock,” he said.
If none of that panned out, Pence only could count the votes. That was it.

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#3268315 5-Aug-2024 12:46

https://archive.ph/S05cp

I bet Trump is getting rattled, indeed! Part of me feels that with Kamala running instead of Biden, it's almost like Obama was in 2008, all over again.

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#3268327 5-Aug-2024 13:20

More Harris/Trump polls of sizeable range ending 02.08.24 after the +5RV by RMG

CBS did two polls of 3kLV, +1 and +2.

Given that was 3 days ago I would think the next lot likely gets her over the +2 avg for the general.

Harris favorability is rapidly heading toward each other at unfavorable +6.7 but its been nearly a week since more data, but the lines are near vertical toward each other, I would not be surprised to see her come out 50/50 within two weeks. Vs Trump who is meandering at +8.7.

The real indicators though imo is the insane amount of money raised in one week, with 65%+ being new donor at only an average of $190 (ie not Billionaires floating her but a big chunk of individuals).

add to that the massive amount of new volunteers and it just paints a much brighter picture for Kamala.

Im not worried about Fox, she will out debate him anywhere. But if its a love crowd of magat's then that is clearly not appropriate. I was listening to Cavelle this morning and he said Trump could fit the debate in just before sentencing in NY :-).

Trumps running scared and either way its obvious. His reasons for not doing abc debate are rubbish, re his run in with one journalist and "supposed" litigation just fabrications of why he "wont" do it. Harris does need to debate him though, so I would negotiate terms, even if just to make him feel less scared as she will win if its not a set up.

Walz could be a good pick for Veep as he addresses the concerns with Shapiro (Gaza and sxl bias issues supposed in his office) and Kelly (Senator, Texas will turn red in the senate which is already razor thin). For the 60+ voters which is Harris main weak demo, Kelly being famous with the twin astronaut thing, being navy pilot, links via his wife etc, he supposedly has the most pull for the moderate older Republicans but most of all he is a brilliant attack dog for Harris. But, it would be a calculated risk.

None of the 3 will be bad picks or hurt her race (outside some deep conspiracy). The only reason Vance hurts Trump is because he a. Isnt quite as insane b. Trump is old and odds of passing away as Pres increase every day, with Vance not able to distance himself at all from Proj25 and having absurd policy ideas. But he doesnt hurt Trump that much, no Veep ever does.

I think Shapiro is the obvious choice, the two issues are reasonably minor and rectifiable.

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#3268333 5-Aug-2024 13:43

quickymart:

I bet Trump is getting rattled, indeed!

She is what Haley said, the first 80yo to pull out will win (not saying she will, but its clear thats what dems and moderates wanted). But on top of that a force, a cultural phenomena. as you say pulls big crowds. Has big endorsements. Has won over the young voters and if giving them paths to be a "real" part of her presidency. She is popular. She is genuine, has morals and ethics, is fun even.

He is rattled because she is many of the things he wishes people thought of him. So he does not know how to control this narrative, all he does by attacking black voters, her racial identity, congratulating Putin for the prisoner swap etc, is only appealing to extreme magat's, the MTG kind.

He has no social skills. Then there is the felon, rapist, fraudster, alleged bribes, wants to be a dictator for real.

She is appealing to all youth votes, the entire left and moderates from both parties. Her campaign hasnt even started, but that first real ad sets u the tone, the only thing I would do more is lean into his age and his mental stability. ie being cognitively OK just gets worse but add to that Sociopath and it is just not likeable. imo.

Her Brand is infinitely more likeable and she has substance in policies over Rhetoric.

Trump's campaign is so badly in free fall that if he doesnt add substance, appeal and quit the personal attacks quick, once she starts campaign trail in the next two weeks for real, she could just keep up the momentum all the way to the end while he heads back to the 20% odds he started with. My only concern is the impact of the likes of Twitter/Musk spewing out anti Harris ads 3x a day, this dodgy American Pac collection of private data in swing states. But I feel Repubs have sooooo much grass roots door to door going on, that could just be irrelevant.

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