Ukraine War discussion

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#2892321 26-Mar-2022 04:51

linw:

When do we decide to intervene with weapons and troops? What number of destroyed cities and number of refugees does it take?

Bullies have to be faced up.

freitasm:

With some of the "leaders" we currently have around the world it will be only thoughts and prayers, resulting in Ukraine being completely destroyed...

Don't you guys think this is a little unfair? Russia has a sh*tton of nuclear missiles, and there is a real threat of at least tactical nukes being used against NATO or Ukrainian forces?

How do we approach this problem?

Hypothetical question - if one of you were "Supreme Commander" of NATO/EU/partners/friends with absolute power what would be the next move?

Russian nuclear doctrine is rather vague meaning NATO doesn't have the luxury of a predetermined red line to cross.
How far can NATO go without Russia deploying tactical nukes against NATO targets in Ukraine?
Fighter planes? NFZ, ground forces? severe sanctions? Maybe the reality of a war of attrition with Ukraine? Who knows.

If in the event tactical or chem/bio weapons were deployed as per above, NATO responds how?

launching fighters from Ramstein/US Carrier Strike groups (bases in Poland/Ukraine having been obliterated by tactical nukes/hypersonics), targeting railway depots, communication centers and so on?
How deep into Russia proper? What is the strategic objective? Are land forces involved?

I have my own thoughts on all this but I'm interested to hear from others. :)

Also, according to the Holy NYT Bible :P, Russian Cyberattacks are of major concern for the USA (it goes both ways ofc).

The report said Russia may be waiting for the right moment before activating code to shut down power grids across the country.

Potential damage is unknown factor since the code has never been activated.

Apologies if quoted posts are attributed to the wrong persons. I had to cut down the number of quote tags

kingdragonfly

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#2892338 26-Mar-2022 09:13

This is a Russian video from at least two different attack helicopters, though it's spliced to make it look like one.

It shows how easy it is for the Russians to fly around and kill people, however it is eventually shot down and has to make an emergency landing.

Given the mud and surface water, I'd say it would be hard to dig-in for protection.

Slava Ukraini

rugrat

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#2892340 26-Mar-2022 09:25

If Russia uses Nukes they get Nuked back. MAD doesn’t work otherwise. K8Toledos post suggests that Russia takes out Poland bases with Nukes.

Sorry but if they launch first, an equivalent retaliatory strike straight back at them.

If west is terrified of engaging Russia directly then they can do what they like by using Nuclear blackmail threat.

The blackmail threat is working beautifully for Russia to date so if they do use chemical etc weapons in Ukraine they will just face more sanctions, which effect the population not Putin himself.

Biden used stronger words, but use to slips of the tongue from him.

Sidestep

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#2892341 26-Mar-2022 09:34

neb: I'm particularly disappointed with Germany continuing to pump money into Russia's war machine because not doing so would drive up their heating bills...

It's not just German heating bills at stake - but the destruction of their economy, and a full-blown energy crisis that could easily cascade into world markets.
There's no way they can cut off Russian gas - and Russia knows that. Sure there's heating/hot water for around half of it's households, but so much of German industry also relies on gas.

Last year 45% of the EU's total natural gas imports came from Russia. Germany’s energy security is worse - it depends on Russian oil and gas for 65% of its needs.
Right now a complte halt of Russian imports would plunge Europe - Germany in particular - into a massive energy emergency then a deep, nasty recession - right as they recover from covid.

It's more than just coincidence that Putin made his Ukraine move right when inflation and oil prices were soaring.
Europe was already in the midst of an energy crisis, and - with it's low storage levels (engineered by Russia) - absolutely dependent upon Russian imports.

If normal Russian flows can be continued (for the next couple of months), then the EU and UK could end this winter season with 27 billion cubic meters of gas in storage (and back to their five-year range).
Then, if they can somehow keep importing Russian gas (and building storage) through summer, they might survive - increasing Norwegian and Algerian imports and with massive LNG imports - with strict rationing, the 2022-2023 winter.

Unfortunately Gazprom (Russia) actually owns much of Germany's storage and pipeline facilities. They know exactly the state of Germany's energy dependence, and what they can (or can't) do about it.
It's not just gas. Robert Habeck (Germany's Economic Minister) said Germany could be 'independent' of Russian 'coal' by the fall and almost independent of their 'oil' by the end of the year.

Analysts find even that hard to believe. Where's it going to come from? And Europe will also run short of diesel. Each year between a third and half of its diesel comes from Russia, the rest from the Middle East.

There's no doubt that the Four trillion dollars Putin's earned over the past 20 years from energy exports has financed his wars.
How Europe could have sleep-walked into this situation of absolute energy dependence on Russia is something that'll cause Euro soul-searching for decades. But it's a fact.

Regarding continued energy imports - they're relying now on the hints Russia's giving that it's completed it's strategic objectives in Ukraine and is entering a 'second phase'.

In Russia's big military briefing today, they said they'd always just intended to 'liberate' the Donbas, and knock out Ukraine's military capacities.
They claim they've 'blockaded' Kyiv, 'suppressed' 16 Ukrainian airfields, destroyed 39 supply bases, written off 1.05m tonnes of ammo,'disarmed Ukraine' and destroyed their Neo-Nazi battalion
Apparently Russia gained 'air supremacy', ie complete control of the skies, on the 2nd day of their Operation.

Deputy chief of Russia's General Staff Sergey Rudskoy claims that Ukraine's suffered 30,000 casualties since the start of the war, with 14,000 dead and 16,000 injured.
Russia's revised its own casualty figures to 5,176 including 1,351 killed - and repeated their only objective now is finish securing the Donbas.
All in all it looks like they're staking a position for peace talks.

Europe will breathe a sigh of relief, change their pants and go about increasing their militaries and reducing their energy dependance - now worrying about US 'hegemony' again..

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#2892348 26-Mar-2022 10:43

Aleksandr Dugin - "Putin’s brain” AKA "Putin's Rasputin"

The last Russian Czar had Grigori Rasputin. Putin has Aleksandr Dugin. (They even look similar.)

Few people outside Russia have heard of Aleksandr Dugin, the Russian philosopher and geopolitical strategist who is sometimes referred to as “Putin’s brain”, or "Putin's Rasputin".

Dugin promotes Traditionalist views that blend ultranationalism and anti-modernist thinking, speaking to fascist political leaders around the world.

His 1997 opus, The Foundations of Geopolitics, has been taught to Russian military heads since the fall of the USSR.*

He wants nothing less than full restoration of a totalitarian Russian Empire to control the Eurasian continent from Dublin to Vladivostok.

The erasure of Ukraine is just the first step.

Is Putin mad or bad? I vote for bad, with a powerful influencer.

EDIT

* An extract: According to Dugin, Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics".

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freitasm

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#2892359 26-Mar-2022 11:42

K8Toledo:

Don't you guys think this is a little unfair? Russia has a sh*tton of nuclear missiles, and there is a real threat of at least tactical nukes being used against NATO or Ukrainian forces?

How do we approach this problem?

As above, MAD doesn't work one way only. What is Putin going to do if he's got a devastated country to rule over? Likely he won't even be there.

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kingdragonfly

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#2892362 26-Mar-2022 11:59

Superyachts running for cover like cockroaches. The difference is these cockroaches had a warning before the kitchen light turned on.

At 7:50 mentions the "Lloyd's Register" (LR) withdraw services to Russia.

From Class societies start pulling out of Russia

"Classification societies had been holding off from withdrawing class from Russian controlled vessels, but with Lloyd’s Register the first to pull out and DNV following suit, pressure is mounting on the rest of IACS societies to take a position.

An exodus of class services could leave thousands of vessels unclassed, uninsured or moving services swiftly back to Russia."

kingdragonfly

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#2892364 26-Mar-2022 12:06

Russia Struggled to Capture a Ukrainian Town. Intercepted Radio Messages Show Why.

The New York Times

The Times’s Visual Investigations team analyzed dozens of battlefield radio transmissions between Russian forces during an initial invasion of the town of Makariv, outside Kyiv. They reveal an army struggling with logistical problems and communication failures.

kingdragonfly

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#2892367 26-Mar-2022 12:20

Why Russia Can't Survive Tech Sanctions

TechAltar

Rikkitic

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#2892370 26-Mar-2022 12:54

I hope this isn't turning into another YouTube. I will view videos when I absolutely have to and there is no alternative, but I strongly prefer to receive information as text. Of course videos have a place, and today's young people are supposedly semi-illiterate, but the written word is still better for conveying information.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

K8Toledo

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#2892397 26-Mar-2022 15:48

freitasm:

K8Toledo:

Don't you guys think this is a little unfair? Russia has a sh*tton of nuclear missiles, and there is a real threat of at least tactical nukes being used against NATO or Ukrainian forces?

How do we approach this problem?

As above, MAD doesn't work one way only. What is Putin going to do if he's got a devastated country to rule over? Likely he won't even be there.

Yes MaD is an effective deterrent policy when applied to USA and Russian strategic nuclear missiles (city destroyers).

When tactical nukes are involved MaD doesn't work. Russian short range missiles can carry either conventional or low yield nuclear warheads, designed for battlefield use.

USA's nuclear stockpile is strategic only. So in theory Russia could use tactical nukes without fear of US retaliating with strategic missiles

rugrat

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#2892404 26-Mar-2022 16:02

K8Toledo:

USA's nuclear stockpile is strategic only. So in theory Russia could use tactical nukes without fear of US retaliating with strategic missiles

If I was USA would still respond with a city killer one. Try to hit a military location where it would be equivalent casualties population wise. Any Nuclear attack is unacceptable even for tactical, that way Russia would be fearful of US retaliating.

K8Toledo

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#2892407 26-Mar-2022 16:18

rugrat:

K8Toledo:

USA's nuclear stockpile is strategic only. So in theory Russia could use tactical nukes without fear of US retaliating with strategic missiles

If I was USA would still respond with a city killer one. Try to hit a military location where it would be equivalent casualties population wise. Any Nuclear attack is unacceptable even for tactical, that way Russia would be fearful of US retaliating.

Yep that would be in line with my thinking too. It would be real test of EU resolve though since Russia can strike many nations.

Since Article 5 applies only if a NATO member is attacked some alliance members may not be happy about joining a campaign they aren't required to under international law (if that makes sense?)

Sidestep

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#2892410 26-Mar-2022 16:28

K8Toledo:

USA's nuclear stockpile is strategic only. So in theory Russia could use tactical nukes without fear of US retaliating with strategic missiles

The US has the B61 'Dial-a-Yield' tactical nuke. Several hundred of them are stationed in Europe.

It would be an irreversible mistake for Russia to use even a tactical nuke in Ukraine - and they know it.

At the moment they're trying to back down a bit, consolidate their existing gains, and start negotiating a settlement that will give them the face-saving result they need.
Crimea and the Donbass as Republics, and Ukraine as a neutral state.

Rikkitic

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#2892460 26-Mar-2022 16:33

Are you guys seriously talking about thermonuclear war? I don't think the 20 survivors will care much about the niceties of international law when they are eating rats and bartering for a place in the cave.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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