Ukraine War discussion

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#2892478 26-Mar-2022 18:21

Sidestep:

K8Toledo:

USA's nuclear stockpile is strategic only. So in theory Russia could use tactical nukes without fear of US retaliating with strategic missiles

The US has the B61 'Dial-a-Yield' tactical nuke. Several hundred of them are stationed in Europe.

It would be an irreversible mistake for Russia to use even a tactical nuke in Ukraine - and they know it.

At the moment they're trying to back down a bit, consolidate their existing gains, and start negotiating a settlement that will give them the face-saving result they need.
Crimea and the Donbass as Republics, and Ukraine as a neutral state.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/russian-general-calls-encirclement-of-ukrainian-cities-a-deliberate-plan/index.html

1. First phase is over

2. Primary focus in East Ukraine

3. "the main goal - the liberation of Donbas"

Translated to combine sense.

1. It failed

2. As everywhere else has failed

3.Which IIRC is already largely controlled by Donbas separatists.

Now, he could could have focuses on Donbas, pretty easy I'd say. I'm unsure where levelimg other towns, apartment blocks, theatres, hospitals, kindies, universities, fits in with the East and Donbas.

As long as these sanctions are permanent, that's all that matters to me. Regime change by Russian citizens/Govt/Military? Happy to review then

neb

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#2892495 26-Mar-2022 20:07

Sideface:
Aleksandr Dugin

Dugin is a weird character, on the one hand he's touted as the Russian version of Alfred Rosenberg but on the other there's not much evidence that he's seen as anything more than a crackpot by most Russians. In particular you'd think that someone that influential would have at least some of his works translated into other languages pour sensibiliser les autres, but they're only available in Russian (you can, with the right amount of Googling, find a supposed English version of "Foundations of Geopolitics" but it's a garbled machine-translated semi-gibberish version. In the translation software's defence, it probably didn't have something too comprehensible there to begin with).

K8Toledo

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#2892498 26-Mar-2022 20:17

Sidestep:

K8Toledo:

USA's nuclear stockpile is strategic only. So in theory Russia could use tactical nukes without fear of US retaliating with strategic missiles

The US has the B61 'Dial-a-Yield' tactical nuke. Several hundred of them are stationed in Europe.

It would be an irreversible mistake for Russia to use even a tactical nuke in Ukraine - and they know it.

At the moment they're trying to back down a bit, consolidate their existing gains, and start negotiating a settlement that will give them the face-saving result they need.
Crimea and the Donbass as Republics, and Ukraine as a neutral state.

True. I should clarify I meant USA's nuclear missile stockpile is strategic only.

The B61 is a bomb. I can't see any NATO aircraft carrying nuclear bombs getting through a wall of Russian air defences.

ezbee

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#2892511 26-Mar-2022 21:31

Apparently Aleksandr Dugin is required study where they train their officers.
So may explain the utter lack of humanity.

I have known of a Russian who left the country to keep children away from the infamous brutality of national service.

There is another philosopher, that seems to be required study in Putin's circle.

Russia Under Putin: A Moderate Fascist State
https://dr-rayanaava.medium.com/russia-under-putin-a-moderate-fascist-state-d9bab9f4c69b

He is obsessed with reinstating the old Russian imperial. In 2005, he repatriated Ilyin’s remains from Switzerland to Moscow.
"“On the same day that Putin laid flowers at Ilyin’s grave in 2009, he declared, and I quote it’s a crime when someone only begins talking about the separation of Russia and Ukraine.”"

Ivan Ilyin: A Fashionable Fascist
By approving of Ivan Ilyin’s philosophy, the Russian state is effectively sugar coating a holder of bitterly fascist views
https://ridl.io/en/ivan-ilyin-a-fashionable-fascist/

""
Ivan Ilyin is quoted and mentioned not only by the president of Russia, but by the prime-minister Medvedev, foreign minister Lavrov, several of Russia’s governors, patriarch Kirill, various leaders of the United Russia Party and many others besides.
""
his ideas of spirituality and the Russian state are closely linked to his positive views of the regimes of Hitler, Mussolini, Salazar and Franco.
""

neb

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#2892562 26-Mar-2022 22:01

ezbee:
Apparently Aleksandr Dugin is required study where they train their officers.

I've heard that (from non-Russian sources), but I've also heard "who's Aleksandr Dugin?" from Russian sources... he may be a bogeyman whose influence is greatly exaggerated by western analysts, and the reason why so few people know of him could simply be that his influence isn't very great.

kingdragonfly

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#2892650 27-Mar-2022 10:01

Based on Putin's hours-long annual Q&A with Russians that Putin only influencer are the drums of war playing in his head.

Being a member of Putin's inner circle is a risky business. Say "yes" and things go bad, then things could go bad for you also. Say "no" then things could go bad for you also.

Here's a video from my favorite big brain.

There's one way to stop Putin, w Stephen Fry.

Pindex

"Why Putin could go Nuclear and how to avoid it."

ezbee

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#2892673 27-Mar-2022 11:31

Ivan Ilyin, who died in 1954.
Maybe too old a Philosopher, and got forgotten some looked for a more recent inspiration, Aleksandr Dugin ?

https://www.fcnp.com/2022/03/17/putins-failing-obsession-with-ivan-ilyins-fascism/

""
“Democratic elections, Ilyin thought, institutionalized the evil notion of individuality…’Freedom for Russia,’ as Ilyin understood it (in a text selectively quoted by Putin in 2014), would not mean freedom for Russians as individuals, but ‘the organic-spiritual unity of the government with the people, and the people with the government.’
""
“As soldiers received their mobilization orders for the invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean province in January 2014, all of Russia’s high-ranking bureaucrats and regional governors were sent a copy of Ilyin’s “Our Tasks.” After Russian troops occupied Crimea and the Russian parliament voted for annexation, Putin cited him again as justification.”
""

This summary of Iiyin thought,
It defines freedom as knowing your set place in society,
--- Putin knows his and makes sure everybody else knows theirs ---
asserts that democracy is a ritual and not a reality,
--- Putin scores an A+ here, seems to be preparing for a 'managed' election in occupied territory---
and maintains that there are no facts in the world Russian nationalism is the only truth.
--Putin I think you passed with flying colours ---

Just swap 'Russian Nationalism' for [Insert you country name] Nationalism, could be something from Steve Bannon ?

rugrat

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#2892674 27-Mar-2022 11:41

kingdragonfly:

There's one way to stop Putin, w Stephen Fry.

Pindex

"Why Putin could go Nuclear and how to avoid it."

I don’t think anyone wants Putin to be given anything he can spin at home as a win, which is what I got from the video in how to avoid it.

Also as for Putin changing scope of war (from other posters, media news) wouldn’t trust anything he says, the change in scope could be just a pause, as the supply lines are weak and need shoring up.

tdgeek

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#2892682 27-Mar-2022 12:02

rugrat:

Also as for Putin changing scope of war (from other posters, media news) wouldn’t trust anything he says, the change in scope could be just a pause, as the supply lines are weak and need shoring up.

Could be, but with all the fails, using the excuse that we have finished Stage 1 now, is an easy way out. But yeah as you say, who knows what he wants, Id rather trust the Devil selling pitchforks

ezbee

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#2892812 27-Mar-2022 16:19

The thing with the Pindex item, and I generally like most of what Stephen Fry says.
However as anyone who has worked near sales teams would know.
A portion of people who get into powerful positions operate on a you lose, I win philosophy.

Mediation, yep you do it, but unless the person moves on, you need a position of strength.
Thus the requirement to have a position of strength on the ground, he's not giving 1sqmm back.

A Mig 29 can carry 3,000 kg , Su-25 4,400Kg, Ka-52 Alligator Attack Helicopter 2,800Kg.

Turkish Drone is slow and only 149Kg, useful for many stealthy things 'chipping away'.
Its great when targets are comming to you, not too many, not so much when you want longer reach.
Like that convoy that sat for a week or more, you pick at edges.

I expect Ukraine's military who are actually fighting know what they need.
Having proven they make good use of anything given to them.
The longer it goes the bigger the mess.

kingdragonfly

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#2892869 27-Mar-2022 18:08

Way to go Norway.

They confiscated a super yacht from a Russian oligarch. The twist was he was not on the "arrest-this-yacht" list, plus the third party owner argues the Russian doesn't own it.

Ouch! :)

tdgeek

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#2892875 27-Mar-2022 18:31

In a dramatic speech , U.S President Joe Biden did not hold back when conveying his opinion on Vladimir Putin, saying his Russian counterpart “cannot remain in power”.

But as Waikato University international law expert, Alexander Gillespie puts it, the 46th President of the United States is entering a ‘murky area’ when it comes to de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine that threatens to spill over.

Gillespie said Biden’s latest comments were no ‘slip of the tongue’ but instead were a showcase of power.

Interesting comment. It is indeed a showcase of power, but when you have 42 million people being pummelled, and almost 1/4 dislocated, and the war crimes, its fine to push back on show case of power. Its actually a showcase of defense, and "this is too much"

rugrat

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#2892890 27-Mar-2022 19:04

The “cannot remain in power” has been rolled back by the White House.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/biden-view-that-putin-cannot-remain-in-power-not-meant-to-back-regime-change-white-house-1.4837269

”later qualified by a White House official to be meant to prepare the world’s democracies for extended conflict over Ukraine, and not to back regime change in Russia.”

“The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbours or the region,” the official said. “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.”

I’m sure everyone would have interpreted it has regime change when he gave the speech.

neb

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#2892893 27-Mar-2022 19:15

rugrat:
I’m sure everyone would have interpreted it has regime change when he gave the speech.

Including a paranoid nutcase with nuclear weapons. That's really not the message you want to be sending him.

ezbee

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#2892895 27-Mar-2022 19:33

Sergei Shoigu
May or may not have had a heart attack.
Purported to be closest to a successor to Putin, but a hardliner, maybe no better.
Hunting and Fishing buddy.

Russia-Ukraine war: Filthy rich Kremlin insider is ruining Putin's war effort
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-filthy-rich-kremlin-insider-is-ruining-putins-war-effort/5ZZ65ERDLHELDJCOHHLQVPLWVI/

""
"It is being led by Shoygu, a man who has so far experienced only successes and who lacks the proper military training to understand that a battlefield victory, no matter how impressive, can sometimes lead to an even larger political defeat," said Russia analysts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan.
""
"The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernise its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus," tweeted former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev. "But as a military adviser, you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military."
""

There is talk that Russia's huge stored reserve of Tanks has been plundered over years, so missing systems and parts.
However it might be wishful thinking, and not slowing down pounding cities from a distance.

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