2024 US Presidential election thread

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6325 posts

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#3277359 31-Aug-2024 11:18

quickymart:

A couple of this week's election-based cartoons:

hehe quality humour, love them QM.

kingdragonfly:

“He is fundamentally a conservative guy, and I think that he needs to get off the sidelines and support the ticket,” Vance added.

DragonFly, I saw the comments Vance made about asking him to get off the sidelines etc, to me it seems odd given all he has done for Vance that Vance would feel that confident to speak publicly, or is it desperation...

Harris GE avg lead is up and down between 3.3 to 3.7 recently, currently 3.4, but her popularity seems to continue with her avg unfavorable poll now at only +1.0. Plus the avg Congressional poll has the Dems up to +2.0 (highest its been during the Harris campaign). So while she has stagnated somewhat in the GE avg there are still signs of momentum, with plenty of good things to come.

Trump is trying to wrestle the narrative, but he just can say the right things at the right time of late. Now its one of his campaign advisers comments re the arlington cemetery debacle. Trump campaign stoops to insulting US Army ‘hacks’ over Arlington cemetery debacle | The Independent

Pennsylvannia is a Toss Up still, hopefully the ads will help move that up for her and to get the polls in the 5 or so swing states where her lead is less than +3avg to out of the margin of error range, Trump could become even more unhinged (which is clearly not somebody controlling the narrative).

Clearly Harris feels most comfortable getting Trump unhinged and keeping him there, the longer she does it the more she wrestles back the economy/inflation/border narratives Harris launches massive Project 2025 ad to troll Trump in Mar-a-Lago district - her only spending in Florida | The Independent

Touche to Trumps advert that has Harris debating herself over the economy etc.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3277373 31-Aug-2024 13:08

Bloomberg run through their latest polls, shows the approximate situation in the swing states, which really gives Harris so many ways to get to 270 or take all of them and end up around 310. I have a gut feeling with her momentum, that $370M ad campaign on these 7 swing states, obviously her rally campaign, maybe some more sit down interviews, the Debate, and a big factor having so many new volunteers to help execute an already well planned "grass roots" campaign in swing states.

Then you have Trump growing increasingly nervous about his legal problems and the Harris campaign trying to keep him on "unhinged" mode. Unless things change soon, she could take them all, add to that she has a slight lead in Arizona and Nevada, she also has Texas and Florida within play even if unlikely (R ~4%). There are so many avenues for her to 270.

The poll report goes into some details on key issues she has either gained impressive ground or is outright in front.

quickymart

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#3277567 31-Aug-2024 20:04

Speaking of polls - not sure how much this might matter to the final election result, but...

Also; I bet his Dad would be highly disappointed in the man his son has become:

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3277588 31-Aug-2024 21:14

quickymart:

Speaking of polls - not sure how much this might matter to the final election result, but...

In regard to arlington, it certainly blew up online. I think its pretty sad the worker trying to enforce the laws who was shoved to the side, cannot press charges out of fear of retaliation from his mob, which seems to be such a common theme, not just in this campaign and legal issues either. This is a pretty good analysis of it, but what I like at the end, they mention what I said earlier about Harris not having to reply to his attacks and politically its better for her not too, the more unhinged the less he controls the narrative etc.

His polls havnt moved for a while, but hes got some big things coming up that might push people too far, the Harris ad campaign reaching those that will decide the election after the 2nd. Ive not seen any news on his last ditch effort to have the hush money case thrown out, with sentencing just around the corner....

quickymart

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#3277592 31-Aug-2024 21:47

TeaLeaf:

His polls havnt moved for a while, but hes got some big things coming up that might push people too far, the Harris ad campaign reaching those that will decide the election after the 2nd. Ive not seen any news on his last ditch effort to have the hush money case thrown out, with sentencing just around the corner....

As I posted in the other thread:

quickymart:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-request-move-case-kicked-back-1946957

Can't believe he somehow keeps thinking he can claim "presidential immunity" when he wasn't the president when this happened???

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3277596 31-Aug-2024 22:15

quickymart:

As I posted in the other thread:

yeh, I mean his legal teams have performed miracles, beyond the call of duty, but I did find it bizarre how he kept thinking the immunity would cover this case.

I think it could push his unhinged nature over the edge.

kingdragonfly

11190 posts

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#3277822 1-Sep-2024 15:04

Eric Levine, a New York-based attorney who once backed Tim Scott and Nikki Haley’s respective presidential campaigns.

Levine is a notable Republican donor, a top fundraiser for Haley during her presidential campaign.

Levine currently serves on the board of directors for the Republican Jewish Coalition – a group that has raised more than $2.8 million for Trump’s campaign.

Jewish Insider: Top GOP donor criticizes Trump for RFK Jr., Gabbard outreach

email title: “Is Trump Trying to Lose?”

Body: "It is hard to imagine a more self-destructive announcement."

Kennedy is “an anti-vax kook who sees conspiracies behind every tree and under every bed”

He assails Gabbard who has joined Trump's presidential transition team, a former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii, for having endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential election. “There is something terribly wrong with this picture"

He warned that Trump is now ceding ground to Vice President Kamala Harris as she seeks to court moderate Republicans. “These should be solid Trump voters. Harris’s lies are easily exposed if Trump remains focused on policy and records. Yet, they are up for grabs because Trump seems to be laser focused on narrowing his base rather than expanding it.”

“Rather than seeking and coveting the endorsement of fringe candidates with fringe policy positions that offend most Republicans and independents.

Trump would be better served by announcing he has added Nikki Haley to his transition team. It is her voters he should be focusing on.”

“I remain concerned about Trump’s relationship with the truth. I continue to cringe every time he tells the lie about a stolen election. And the thought that he did nothing while rioters ran through the Capitol chanting ‘hang Mike Pence’. still haunts me.”

“Trump only helps Harris in her orchestrated act of national deception when he embraces fringe candidates like RFK and Gabbard”

“As a former Haley voter and Reagan Republican, I say to you Mr. Trump, speak to me and my fellow Republicans. Reject the fringes. Fight for the middle. If you do not, you will forever be known from this day forward, as the ‘Former President.’”

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TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3277835 1-Sep-2024 15:47

The funny thing is I think Harris already has the Nikki Haley voters in the bag. Its those people in those swing states who only start to pay attention to politics post Labor day (hence the start of the Harris ad campaign timing).

Im impressed with Harris having a Gen Z congressman touring campuses and schools, asking about their concerns, which is largely part of the $25k loan assistance and 3 million homes plus other legislative measures to keep rents reigned in. So it appears by different measures youth and new voters are flocking to her.

I think Trump can never be under estimated as his "cult" base which is combined maga and various anti groups, are not able to Think, his negative approach has sucked in families and tribes which is a hard metric to poll. But I think there are lots of metrics on the size of Harris voter numbers the polls just cant establish.

anyway one of my fav pods, a Labor man & cohost cover a bit of what happening right now.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3278455 3-Sep-2024 10:07

I think folks need to be careful which Polls they read into and trust, like with the recent Trafalgar one showing Trump up, it has (R) next to it for a reason ;-p.

Here is a break down from 538 on their Pollster rankings https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Where does Trafalgar sit? #273 :-)

and yet it manages to gather clickbait news headlines.

I like what Harris had to say on Labor day in the US, ie :you might not be a union member, but you better thank one. For your sick leave, thank a Union member", and so on and so forth. I like what one Political Analyst had to say about her getting on and off the plane to do multiple speeches and rallies on a Public Holiday, Donanld Trump is either on the golf course or in the sun ringing his bell for a diet coke, "pretending" he is a $Billionaire.

Things are still VERY tight in the swing states.

Harris didnt get the bump most were hoping from the DNC, after things had plateaued, in fact her lead is up and down ad currently the lowest its been since her peak. But, she is putting in the work. There is no logical reason to think Trump will handle the economy better, it is simply people associating the pandemic and its associated increase of cost of living.

But Harris has gained a lot in the polls in regard to who people trust with the economy, due to hard work and some real substance behind that makes sense to the low-middle class. Trump just says his is the best and everybody and everything else sucks, there are signs of people growing tired of that message. One of the funny late night shows, showed he has used the exact same lines of negativity to attack 3 separate nominees haha

I do hope the Harris traditional and online ad blitz starting tomorrow hits the mark, because it is still very tight between those who will decide this election i the swing states.

The below has attracted a lot of outrage online and elsewhere,

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#3278525 3-Sep-2024 11:26

TeaLeaf:

Things are still VERY tight in the swing states.

Harris didnt get the bump most were hoping from the DNC, after things had plateaued, in fact her lead is up and down ad currently the lowest its been since her peak. But, she is putting in the work. There is no logical reason to think Trump will handle the economy better, it is simply people associating the pandemic and its associated increase of cost of living.

But Harris has gained a lot in the polls in regard to who people trust with the economy, due to hard work and some real substance behind that makes sense to the low-middle class. Trump just says his is the best and everybody and everything else sucks, there are signs of people growing tired of that message. One of the funny late night shows, showed he has used the exact same lines of negativity to attack 3 separate nominees haha

The Fed Meeting on 17/18 September is crucial for the Dems, If Powell lays out a path of considerable easing ( plus a Sept Cut) then this will boost economic optimism,

If the Fed only cut and sit on the fence about the timeline for future cuts , then Trump will try to bend it to his narrative....

(The Fed don't meet again until Nov 6/7)

kingdragonfly

11190 posts

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#3278532 3-Sep-2024 11:38

TeaLeaf: I think folks need to be careful which Polls they read into and trust, like with the recent Trafalgar one showing Trump up, it has (R) next to it for a reason ;-p

If it gets Trump-ites complacent, and encourages a few Democrats to vote, more power to them.

The Verge 2016: "This Is Fine" creator explains the timelessness of his meme

kingdragonfly

11190 posts

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#3278553 3-Sep-2024 12:55

Nick Offerman became widely known for his role as Ron Swanson in the NBC sitcom Parks and Recreation

Digging deeper, Country musician Lee Greenwood is involved with “God Bless the USA” Bibles in partnership with former President Trump.

Nick Offerman video below is parody of Lee Greenwood "God Bless The U.S.A.", frequently played at Trump rallies.

“Proud to Be a Kamala Man”

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3278581 3-Sep-2024 15:45

wellygary:

The Fed Meeting on 17/18 September is crucial for the Dems, If Powell lays out a path of considerable easing ( plus a Sept Cut) then this will boost economic optimism,

Yep Ive mentioned this a few times, its one of the time line aspects to consider for momentum. Most Ive read seem to feel the rate cuts are over due and they are being overly cautious given the consolidated economic gains by Biden along with unemployment.

Harris has done well to distance herself from Biden but take credit when applicable. This will be interesting. I think she should keep it in mind with the debate not long beforehand.

kingdragonfly:
If it gets Trump-ites complacent, and encourages a few Democrats to vote, more power to them.

Yes I dont think its overly concerning to Harris campaign. I just pointing out which polls are considered reliable etc. :-)

I always look at who the pollster is when reading them. This could be a good period for Harris coming up with the ads starting today, Trumps legal issues (is that the 10th as well?), the debate, of course potential (some say over due) Fed rate cuts. It might stop Harris drifting closer to Trump, but especially in the swing states.

Edit: Listening to todays rallies, Biden is finally telling people the crazy amount of work he has gotten done in one term during a pandemic. Its up to the US, but Trump didn't come close to his record, he was too busy trying to figure out how to make the Govt work for and around him imo. anyway, it is good to hear from Joe, taking pride in what he and Kamala admin achieved,

quickymart

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#3279049 4-Sep-2024 18:52

Sideface

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#3279266 5-Sep-2024 13:03

The Washington Post - Republican Liz Cheney says she will vote for Kamala Harris this election

04 Sep 2024

Liz Cheney, a former congresswoman from Wyoming, broke with the Republican Party on Wednesday to say she plans to vote for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in November.

“As a conservative, as someone who believes in and cares about the Constitution, I have thought deeply about this,” Cheney said at an event hosted by Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy in North Carolina.

“And because of the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump, but I will be voting for Kamala Harris.”

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