Ukraine War discussion

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#2905126 21-Apr-2022 21:57

neb:
kingdragonfly: it's cheaper at less than NZD $10,000, about 1/4 the cost of a stinger
And one fifteenth the cost of Russia's duct tape special, the Orlan-10. Which also doesn't have any offensive capability.

The Japanese Saito engines they use on Orlans look like a lovely piece of miniature mechanical engineering though.

https://www.saito-mfg.com/en/top_en/products-4st-en/

Its amazing that missiles that are intended for full size Aircraft can acquire and shoot down something so small.
They seem to knock down a whole bunch every day.

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#2905130 21-Apr-2022 22:28

Unboxing of Russian Orlan

"Genious solution from the innovative center of Skolkovo: a Russian drone without a single Russian part."

SaltyNZ

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#2905133 21-Apr-2022 22:58

kingdragonfly: Unboxing of Russian Orlan

"Genious solution from the innovative center of Skolkovo: a Russian drone without a single Russian part."

Well... it IS pretty smart, really. Why invent all that stuff from scratch when you can buy it all off the shelf? People have been flying radio controlled planes for decades, the digital flight control stuff is 10-15 years old, and you can run the whole thing with a Raspberry Pi worth about $5 in bulk.

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ezbee

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#2905134 21-Apr-2022 23:00

These helicopter UAVs are fancier, but are Austrian technology transfer.
So far unarmed.

For the first time, Ukrainian paratroopers have shot down a Russian Horizon S-100 drone
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/for-the-first-time-ukrainian-paratroopers-have-shot-down-a-russian-horizon-s-100-drone/

""
Camcopter S-100 is a multi-purpose unmanned helicopter. It was developed and created by the Austrian company Schiebel. The development was ongoing between 2003 and 2005. Russia together with Schiebel had established production of these unmanned helicopters, and the aircraft system was called Horizon Air S-100.
""
The range of the flight is up to 180 km, and the duration of the mission is 6 hours with a payload of 25 kg
""

neb

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#2905145 21-Apr-2022 23:06

SaltyNZ:
Well... it IS pretty smart, really.

It's only smart if (a) you're passing on the savings and (b) it doesn't affect your ability to build more of the things when you really need them. In this case it's a sign of how living in a kleptocracy doesn't work for anything except the lifestyles of the kleptocrats: Charge the government $100K for a few $k worth of parts duct-taped together, no-one will ever suspect it's just another Potemkin village.

Except that now everyone does. And the same goes for all of the systems that are meant to be keeping Russian troops safe, fed, given medical treatment, etc, it's not just this one drone that's a problem.

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#2905147 21-Apr-2022 23:39

neb: It's only smart if (a) you're passing on the savings

Oh, come now, you don't think Western death merchants give our governments a discount do you?

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#2905149 21-Apr-2022 23:55

An interesting linked video on a shot-down Ka-50 derivative which, when it was displayed as the Werewolf at Farnborough, was billed as a near-indestructible heavily-armoured helicopter, from memory the claim was that it could take 50 cal hits over 90% of its airframe with no (effective) damage. The narrator points out that he can't actually find any trace of something approximating armour...

Now the Mi-24 on the other hand...

TLD

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#2905206 22-Apr-2022 09:51

Another Peter Zeihan analysis just out. This time on the Economy & Politics channel. It's titled The Demise of Russia and talks about Russia's dwindling population and failing (failed) education system. It has some interesting sound bites — he mentions that since Russian government was taken over by the KGB there are now only about 150 people fully capable of running the country compared to the US that has millions. What made me smile — in a dark humour sort of a way — was Peter's reflection that 'Every time one of those 150 people slip in the shower and fall onto bullets, or every time one of them ties themselves to a chair and dives into a swimming pool, that's one less person capable of running the country.

Trevor Dennis
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#2905464 22-Apr-2022 18:20

Well worth reading, short but difficult to summarise:

The Guardian - Putin’s price for ‘peace’? Claiming victory, regardless of the truth [no paywall]

21 April

Even tiny territorial gains will allow Russia to declare success, regroup, and wait to reopen hostilities at a time of its choosing.

Putin is free to declare victory by whatever artificial deadline he chooses.

Russia has already reinvented what its war was supposed to achieve, and can do so again if necessary.

Moscow can say it has achieved its aims regardless of the facts on the ground and call an end to its “special operation” at will. ...

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neb

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#2905467 22-Apr-2022 18:53

That's probably not a bad thing when you've got a strongman with nuclear weapons who can't afford to appear weak and therefore has to present some sort of victory in some way. Although I dislike the over-use of Sun Tzu quotes, his advice to always leave an outlet free is apropos here. If Putin can declare victory somewhere it'll stop the killing, give Europe time to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, and then later Russia can hand back the territory it took and pay reparations in return for readmission to the human race - with economic collapse looming Putin will be limited in terms of how many new wars he can start.

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#2905468 22-Apr-2022 19:08

“Russia redeclare hostilities at it’s time of choosing..”

I can’t see Ukraine allowing them to keep the areas uncontested, so the fighting doesn’t stop just because Putin says goals accomplished.

Ropata

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#2905469 22-Apr-2022 19:10

tdgeek:

neb: Apropos of nothing, but the number of deaths in Putin's war is currently about the same as the number of gun deaths in the US. One is an active war zone, one isn't.

One has one causer, one doesn't?

Military combat hovers around 1 to 1 over history. This war is seeing 7 military to 1 civi. Putin is tiptoeing around. We in the west have no balance of information. In fact we are as in the dark as Russians to be honest but we have the free press.

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#2905470 22-Apr-2022 19:23

TLD:

ezbee:

Russia looks enviously at Finland's happiness and wants it.

Peter Ziehan on GeoPop put up an interesting video on the Finland and Sweden aspect of the conflict today. I have become addicted to the channel since YouTube threw up this video a few days ago, and have been working my way though the channel's recent content. There is lots of incredibly deep and informative information, from the likes of Michael McFaul, who was the US ambassador to Russia under Obama. While it shows the Russian economy and future to be in dire straits, it also suggests that Putin might have to escalate to win, which is too scary to think about. It argues that there would no point in occupying the Ukraine unless they move on to take parts of Poland (as far as Warsaw) and a whole lot more. Putin won't stop with Ukraine.

I hope you are watching a lot of other opinions on this subject too. I tend to find that If I hold an opposing view to Chas Freeman, Noam Chomsky and John Mearsheimer when it comes to geopolitics, There might be something I'm overlooking.

ezbee

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#2905484 22-Apr-2022 21:12

5 Russian Enlistment Offices Hit By Arson Attacks – Reports
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/22/5-russian-enlistment-offices-hit-by-arson-attacks-reports-a77454

""
Russia launched its spring draft this month, eyeing a recruitment goal of 134,500 men by July 15.

The Russian military holds two annual draft sessions, in spring and autumn, when it recruits eligible men aged 18 to 27 to serve for a year in the armed forces.
""

Apparently its in the hope that the records will be destroyed so conscription will not continue.
Lack of trust in Putin's word that conscripts won't be tossed into the front line in Ukraine.
Which seems to have happened nevertheless.

Even without a non-war, serving can be quite dangerous, even fatal, brutality of training, hazing of recruits well known.

Ropata

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#2905487 22-Apr-2022 21:29

rugrat:

“Russia redeclare hostilities at it’s time of choosing..”

I can’t see Ukraine allowing them to keep the areas uncontested, so the fighting doesn’t stop just because Putin says goals accomplished.

I can hear the clinking champagne glasses at Raytheon, Northrop Grumman et al from here. They wont run out of arms, they may just run out of Ukrainians instead. Pretty sure they don't care about that.

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