Ukraine War discussion

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#2905552 23-Apr-2022 00:18

Ropata:

rugrat:

“Russia redeclare hostilities at it’s time of choosing..”

I can’t see Ukraine allowing them to keep the areas uncontested, so the fighting doesn’t stop just because Putin says goals accomplished.

I can hear the clinking champagne glasses at Raytheon, Northrop Grumman et al from here. They wont run out of arms, they may just run out of Ukrainians instead. Pretty sure they don't care about that.

It’s from a few weeks ago, but one top US officer saying war could go for years, so guessing he doesn’t think Ukraine is going to run out of people fighting any time soon.

If the military aid stops, that would end it for now, but weapon shipments still continuing.

https://www.voanews.com/amp/ukraine-war-likely-to-last-years-top-us-military-officer-says-/6517110.html

Also with Europe trying to weed itself off Russian gas oil and will take time, also gives Russia time to find new markets, if they are successful in finding new markets their war machine is back in business.

It could be over in a couple months to, but for that Ukraine would have to let them keep territory, which will mean a new world order where territory can be taken by force, especially for dictators that don’t care about hardship, how many deaths of their own armed forces.

Edit: champagne glass’s will be clicking at weapon manufactures even when war is over as countries up their military budget.

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#2905575 23-Apr-2022 08:54

The modern precedent for holding onto conquered land was set decades ago by Israel which is fully sanctioned by the US, a permanent UN member. I can understand if Russia looks at it that way.

The logistics of LNG from the US is a bridge too far from what I've read. It takes 5 years to build a terminal and is double the price to ship. If I were a German voter, I'd be looking to the candidate that turns on Nordstream 2 as soon as possible.

kingdragonfly

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#2905582 23-Apr-2022 09:19

Apple Insider: AirPods looted by Russians giving away their location via Find My

A Ukrainian man has been tracking the movements of retreating Russian forces using a pair of AirPods stolen from his home near Kyiv.

Vitaliy Semenets told The Times of London that his Apple Bluetooth headphones were swiped by Russian forces from his home in Hostomel. Soon after they were stolen, Semenets realized he could track the AirPods' movement using the Find My app.

The location tracking apparently showed the movements of Russian forces as they retreated from an initial plan to attack the capital city of Kyiv. The forces crossed the border into Belarus and eventually reached Belgorod, where Russia is amassing troops for an assault on the eastern region of Donbas.
...

Vice 24 February: Google Maps Live Traffic showed the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

At 24 February 3:15 AM local time, Jeffrey Lewis, an open source intelligence (OSINT) expert and professor at Middlebury Institute, saw a traffic jam in Belgorod, Russia, using the traffic layer of Google Maps. “Someone’s on the move,” he tweeted.

“I think we were the first people to see the invasion, and we saw it in a traffic app.”

kingdragonfly

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#2905584 23-Apr-2022 09:23

Ukrainian Man Tracks Russian Troop Movements With Stolen Airpods

MSNBC

After his apartment was looted by Russian soldiers, Ukrainian Vitaliy Semenets has been tracking the location of his AirPods for clues on Russian troop movements. Semenets joins Morning Joe to discuss.

ezbee

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#2905590 23-Apr-2022 09:54

Co-incidence perhaps... Both connected to Gasprombank...

2 Russian oligarchs were found dead one day apart alongside their wives and children, reports say
https://www.businessinsider.com/2-russian-oligarchs-found-dead-spain-moscow-reports-2022-4?r=US&IR=T

""
Two Russian oligarchs were found dead alongside their wives and children one day apart, according to multiple reports.
Vladislav Avayev, the former vice president of Gazprombank, was found dead of a gunshot wound in his Moscow apartment.
""
More than 2,000 miles away, in Spain, another oligarch — Sergei Protosenya — was found hanged, with his wife and daughter stabbed to death,
""
Protosenya was the former vice president and chief accountant of Novatek, a major gas company with close connections to Gazprombank.
""
Ex-CIA official: Here is the pattern of the Russian government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0SHks3-oO8

Putin more like a Mafia Boss. Oligarchs and such operate as long as they are useful and provide a cut in money, power, influence.

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#2905612 23-Apr-2022 11:07

rugrat:

Also with Europe trying to weed itself off Russian gas oil and will take time, also gives Russia time to find new markets, if they are successful in finding new markets their war machine is back in business.

To some extent, yes. But definitely not like before. Those countries still doing business with Russia won't be doing so out of the goodness of their own hearts. They'll be doing because Russia is desperate and they can screw them down to ridiculous prices. Russia won't be able to command a fraction of the price for their commodities in that environment that they could have done with normalised relations. As in, if Russia was selling oil for $100/barrel before then maybe China and India say they're only going to pay $30/barrel, and Russia has the choice between $30 and $0.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

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#2905763 23-Apr-2022 16:42

SaltyNZ:

rugrat:

Also with Europe trying to weed itself off Russian gas oil and will take time, also gives Russia time to find new markets, if they are successful in finding new markets their war machine is back in business.

To some extent, yes. But definitely not like before. Those countries still doing business with Russia won't be doing so out of the goodness of their own hearts. They'll be doing because Russia is desperate and they can screw them down to ridiculous prices. Russia won't be able to command a fraction of the price for their commodities in that environment that they could have done with normalised relations. As in, if Russia was selling oil for $100/barrel before then maybe China and India say they're only going to pay $30/barrel, and Russia has the choice between $30 and $0.

As of now it is selling at around $78 per barrel. Still a bargain at that price but with a correction, still high.

ezbee

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#2905818 23-Apr-2022 17:21

Interview on RNZ with Kim Hill
Bill Browder: the man high on Putin’s hit list
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018839233/bill-browder-the-man-high-on-putin-s-hit-list

""
For the last 12 years Bill Browder has been firmly in the sights of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Initially a supporter of Putin, Browder’s company Hermitage Capital Management was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005 — when it was blacklisted.
""
After his young lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was beaten to death in a Moscow jail, Browder made it his life’s mission to make sure his killers faced justice, and thus the Magnitsky Act was born.
""

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#2905821 23-Apr-2022 17:29

ezbee:

Interview on RNZ with Kim Hill
Bill Browder: the man high on Putin’s hit list
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018839233/bill-browder-the-man-high-on-putin-s-hit-list

""
For the last 12 years Bill Browder has been firmly in the sights of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Initially a supporter of Putin, Browder’s company Hermitage Capital Management was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005 — when it was blacklisted.
""
After his young lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was beaten to death in a Moscow jail, Browder made it his life’s mission to make sure his killers faced justice, and thus the Magnitsky Act was born.
""

Grand Deception: The Truth About Bill Browder, the Magnitsky Act and Anti-Russian Sanctions by Alex Krainer | Goodreads Make sure to read both books.

itxtme

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#2905883 23-Apr-2022 21:51

Ropata:

The logistics of LNG from the US is a bridge too far from what I've read. It takes 5 years to build a terminal and is double the price to ship. If I were a German voter, I'd be looking to the candidate that turns on Nordstream 2 as soon as possible.

Its a sad state of affairs when you suggest this is a just and proper way to act. One would hope more people have a moral conciece than you. I dont know what the realitys are of LNG, however there are many other ways to produce power, and I would suggest they will be revisiting those fast. Being hamstrung by a dictator is not a very good position to be in.

Equally how do you think the main importers (USA, ~~China~~, France, Netherlands, Poland) of German products will react if Germany refused to punish Russia??

neb

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#2905890 23-Apr-2022 22:20

ezbee:
Putin more like a Mafia Boss. Oligarchs and such operate as long as they are useful and provide a cut in money, power, influence.

From the news reports, they weren't sanctioned oligarchs so they weren't part of the Putin crony club. By having them and their families killed he's sending a message to both his cronies, don't even think about it, and his critics, don't speak out against me in public as other oligarchs have, we can get to your families any time, any place.

neb

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#2905893 23-Apr-2022 22:27

Ropata:
Grand Deception: The Truth About Bill Browder, the Magnitsky Act and Anti-Russian Sanctions by Alex Krainer | Goodreads Make sure to read both books.

Sascha Krainer is only slightly more credible than Tucker Carlson. By all means if you want to follow a good pro-Russian conspiracy theory then read his stuff (and make sure the CIA doesn't target you through the agents they have everywhere like they did to Krainer), but otherwise I wouldn't waste my time.

Batman

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#2905920 24-Apr-2022 07:21

tdgeek:

Batman:

I have a feeling somebody will buy it. IIRC about 1/3 of the UN voted in support of Russia and about 1/4 abstained from voting against Russia.

India is stockpiling for one, and no doubt China would have been getting cheap oil too.

My post was Europe and oil and gas from anywhere else. Ukraine is in Europe. Who cares what India and China do, thats another chapter

i wasn't talking to you

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=184&topicid=293602&page_no=69#2904875

Batman

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#2905923 24-Apr-2022 07:32

SaltyNZ:

rugrat:

Also with Europe trying to weed itself off Russian gas oil and will take time, also gives Russia time to find new markets, if they are successful in finding new markets their war machine is back in business.

To some extent, yes. But definitely not like before. Those countries still doing business with Russia won't be doing so out of the goodness of their own hearts. They'll be doing because Russia is desperate and they can screw them down to ridiculous prices. Russia won't be able to command a fraction of the price for their commodities in that environment that they could have done with normalised relations. As in, if Russia was selling oil for $100/barrel before then maybe China and India say they're only going to pay $30/barrel, and Russia has the choice between $30 and $0.

a lot to unpack here. global politics all intricately and delicately balanced

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/22/india/india-us-china-russia-relations-intl-hnk/index.html

Batman

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#2905926 24-Apr-2022 07:42

Ropata:

The modern precedent for holding onto conquered land was set decades ago by Israel which is fully sanctioned by the US, a permanent UN member. I can understand if Russia looks at it that way.

The logistics of LNG from the US is a bridge too far from what I've read. It takes 5 years to build a terminal and is double the price to ship. If I were a German voter, I'd be looking to the candidate that turns on Nordstream 2 as soon as possible.

it's not just that, many countries have taken over many places will little interest from the rest of the world. US invade Iraq, Russia helped Basher retake Syria, constant wars in Africa, China - Hong Kong (though technically it's theirs but they did promise 1 nation 2 systems), china taking islands belonging to phillipines as we speak, Russia - Japan island disputes, Israel - Palestine conflict as you mentioned.

This Ukraine conflict won't go away until Putin is dead. But by then who knows how many Nationalists would be in control of European countries. First watch France elections closely I'd say ...

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