i cannot believe what i'm seeing. i think Taiwan should be on high alert

The sanctions are harsh apparently, cutting off Russia financially. Putin seems ok with that. Also the world is just watching, so he has free reign to do what he wants. Suits China too

Batman:

 

i cannot believe what i'm seeing. i think Taiwan should be on high alert

 

Not unreasonable. Invade and occupy Taiwan, get told off, thats it probably. Ukraine is a precedent

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/ukraine-china-embassy-tells-citizens-display-chinese-flags-vehicles-2516711

tdgeek:

 

Batman:

 

i cannot believe what i'm seeing. i think Taiwan should be on high alert

 

 

Not unreasonable. Invade and occupy Taiwan, get told off, thats it probably. Ukraine is a precedent

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-nine-chinese-aircraft-its-air-defence-zone-2022-02-24/

Batman:

 

i cannot believe what i'm seeing. i think Taiwan should be on high alert

 

A Chinese attack on Taiwan doesn't seem imminent. China would need even more than the 100K troops Russia has deployed against Ukraine, and they all have to come over on amphibious ships or cargo planes. If the Chinese were planning to invade Taiwan the movements of several hundred thousand soldiers along with the tanks, trucks, anti-air, warships and aircraft would be just as obvious to the satellites as the Russian build-up was, and just as well publicised.

I'm certainly not saying China won't ever attack Taiwan. Just that it isn't happening in February. Or March, for that matter.

K8Toledo:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-nine-chinese-aircraft-its-air-defence-zone-2022-02-24/

 

Google Chinese Aircraft + Taiwan Airspace. It's a weekly if not daily occurrence and timing is co-incidence.

As won't surprise anyone, one of the first targets was the Ukrainian city that holds the dam that prevents water flowing to Crimea through the canal that was build for that purpose. When Ukraine was invaded in 2014 they cut off water to the canal, and ever since Russia's been shipping water in from the mainland cause local supplies are not enough for the population.

China is in a rock and hard place here. They naturally don't want to support western interests, but this is one country declaring a part of another independent and then using military forces to secure the rebels. Taiwan fits the same narrative, so politically China can't afford to support Russia declaring the Donbass independent. 

I hope noone is hoping to keep accessing their cloud apps, as soon as NATO agree to "do something" those undersea cables linking us all together are toast!

Russia got caught poking around them numerous times the past few years

They tested their own state intranet the other year to check they were self sufficient.

It would be cheap to do with maximum impact to every other country by crippling comms.

Oh and Taiwan are toast to, China will gobble them up as soon as the US and friends are busy.

We live in interesting times :-(

Mark:

 

I hope noone is hoping to keep accessing their cloud apps, as soon as NATO agree to "do something" those undersea cables linking us all together are toast!

 

That isn't how that works :) (If it's done properly)

 

Oh and Taiwan are toast to, China will gobble them up as soon as the US and friends are busy.

 

Yup, agree, China will take Taiwan. My FIL thinks that would provoke a military response from the US and it will start WWIII, but I don't think it will (Unless they are required by treaty to).

China will be watching Russia's invasion of Ukraine with great interest.

networkn:

 

K8Toledo:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-nine-chinese-aircraft-its-air-defence-zone-2022-02-24/

 

 

Google Chinese Aircraft + Taiwan Airspace. It's a weekly if not daily occurrence and timing is co-incidence.

 

The Brits usually get a few Russian bomber buzzes every while as well. It's constant.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-launches-jets-against-unidentified-aircraft-second-day-2022-02-03/

Its horrifying the scale of human miserly that this will cause, possibly generational,
as significant long term oppression to hold what you have taken is the next step.

We also now have Russians who protest against Putin in Russia treated even more severely as a risk to state security.

Beyond the carnage of invasion you have to move on anyone who is perceived to be politically unreliable and cower the rest. 
You have to maintain control of the country and its people.
Then you have a dirty war much like how Generals controlled Argentina, or more overt Xinyang solution.

Guess who has technology proven to help enable that.

CCP ( 6.5%) of China may look at a win either way, as it can be seen as 'comparatively' more friendly while still threatening its neighbors.
Still giving Russia a backstop of support, exchanging resources.

Similar to how CCP can put itself forward as a moderating force to help us with North Korea.
You need us and you need to be nice to us.
While not really...

MikeB4: When Great Britain was attacked and territories invaded throughout it's empire and close to home did not declare Marshall law. The democratic and parliamentary system continued and to a degree strengthened.

GV27:

 

networkn:

 

Google Chinese Aircraft + Taiwan Airspace. It's a weekly if not daily occurrence and timing is co-incidence.

 

 

The Brits usually get a few Russian bomber buzzes every while as well. It's constant.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-launches-jets-against-unidentified-aircraft-second-day-2022-02-03/

 

Yep both fair comments. Plus only 9 planes - I saw that after posting.

So what do we think is Putin's endgame here? I'm thinking he wants to annex parts of Ukraine. Also, perhaps smash the Ukrainian govt and install a Russia-friendly govt.

Thoughts?