Here we go again - 2026 Iran Attacks

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Forums › Politics › Here we go again - 2026 Iran Attacks

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#3468940 11-Mar-2026 15:17

Most of the discussion, here and overseas, has been about the effects of closing the Straits of Hormuz on the transport of oil (crude and refined) and LNG out of the Gulf. This is about 20% of the 'normal' flow of these products around the world. If this oil & LNG export trade stops for another week or two, it will become extremely inconvenient; if it goes on a month or two, it will most likely have catastrophic impacts on some economies. (incl ours).

But I have read that the Gulf countries - Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar & Saudi Arabia - import up to 90% of their food, and that has to go through the Straits of Hormuz, too - only in the other direction to the oil & LNG.
How long before food supply starts to escalate along the concern -> worry -> problem -> crisis -> catastrophe spectrum?

I know I'd rather be a bit short on diesel than a bit short on basic food items.

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#3468975 11-Mar-2026 15:38

PolicyGuy: But I have read that the Gulf countries - Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar & Saudi Arabia - import up to 90% of their food, and that has to go through the Straits of Hormuz, too

All of those countries have other options and the means to pay for it. Definitely they might have problems but they're not going to be hungry imo.

Rikkitic

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#3468982 11-Mar-2026 15:47

gzt:
All of those countries have other options and the means to pay for it. Definitely they might have problems but they're not going to be hungry imo.

They might have trouble flying their caviar in from Russia if the airports are all destroyed.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#3469059 11-Mar-2026 18:42

Looking at the big picture...

Despite all the talk about Trump and his feelings, the actual decision maker is Netenyahu. The war was started mid-discussions because Israel saw the opportunity to target entire Iranian leadership.

What would a win for Israel/US look like?

Israel's desired end-state is that Iran becomes a failed state and hence no longer an existential threat.

What would a win for Iran look like?

The regime still standing and having control of the country and population

But a complete Iranian victory would be

Current US bases are ejected from the Middle East
Middle East investments in US bonds/treasuries are sold off
OPEC prices its oil in something other than US dollars

I suggest that Iran's targeting of US interests in the neighbouring countries is in support of those goals.

kingdragonfly

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#3469116 11-Mar-2026 19:49

After the 1984 Brighton hotel bombing targeting Margaret Thatcher, the terrorist group IRA issued a statement: “We only have to be lucky once. You have to be lucky every time.”

This was meant to emphasize that security forces must stop every attack on Margaret Thatcher, while attackers only need one success

In the 1990's, after the Gulf War, "asymmetric Warfare" became popular.

One side, like the US, has superior weapons, technology, or numbers; the other does not. So the weaker side avoids direct confrontation. Instead it uses methods that exploit the stronger side’s vulnerabilities.

Cheap drones impose disproportionate costs on defenders. The cost asymmetry is extreme.

The following video is using figurative click-bait title, but the point he's making is correct. Swarms of cheap drones "shoot down" expensive defenses, because a 90% kill rate is a critical failure. The swarm only needs a few drones to get lucky.

Even relatively “cheap” systems like the Phalanx CIWS or land-based C-RAM are still expensive to buy, maintain, and staff. Each system costs millions of dollars. Modern societies have thousands of potential targets.

Peace and keeping a happy unexploited population is a lot cheaper.

Again I acknowledge this video title is click-bait.

Iranian drones are shooting down interceptors Not the other way around.

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#3469122 11-Mar-2026 20:09

PolicyGuy: ...I know I'd rather be a bit short on diesel than a bit short on basic food items.

As mentioned before New Zealand and Australia use more diesel than petrol.

In every modern economy, including the Gulf states and New Zealand, the food system is almost entirely dependent on diesel from planting seeds to getting to the grocery store.

If diesel supply collapses, food availability collapses, even if farms are full of produce.

This has happened recently: 2022 Sri Lankan economic crisis, 2021 United Kingdom fuel supply crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic. Each time transport and labor bottlenecks caused produce to be dumped or left unharvested despite shortages elsewhere.

Food rotting in a paddock doesn’t feed people. A shortage of diesel very quickly becomes a shortage of food.

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gzt

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#3469188 11-Mar-2026 21:15

CNN and a few other news organisations have published articles in the last few days on Israel's military censor:

CNN: Every reporter in Israel — and every member of the public — is subject to a military censor. On national security grounds, the regulation authorizes the censor to prohibit reporting or broadcasting any material that could reveal sensitive information or pose a threat to the country’s security interests. This is particularly sensitive during wartime, where the military censor has made clear that broadcasting any images that reveal the location of interceptor missiles or military sites hit by enemy projectiles is forbidden, especially in live broadcasts.

Even with the reporting restrictions in place it's pretty obvious that more Iranian missiles are penetrating the defense and reaching targets than at the start of the war.

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#3469221 12-Mar-2026 06:46

PolicyGuy:

But I have read that the Gulf countries - Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar & Saudi Arabia - import up to 90% of their food, and that has to go through the Straits of Hormuz, too - only in the other direction to the oil & LNG.
How long before food supply starts to escalate along the concern -> worry -> problem -> crisis -> catastrophe spectrum?

A long long time. The gulf have been actively decoupling their basic survival (as opposed to oil) from the Straits of Hormuz. The blue water port in Fujairah is connected by rail (recently completed) to the rest of the UAE and from there to Saudi. Saudi also has the Red Sea which is still open. Food and security is being prioritized at Fujairah.

Food security has been a massive concern for the GCC for some time and they have got that somewhat covered. There will be enough to eat while shortages of different goods.

kingdragonfly

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#3469254 12-Mar-2026 09:18

I'm not going to link to it, because it is propaganda. Here the title on Youtube of a Iran propaganda video, using Lego toy figures.

I have no idea why they chose Lego toys as a media.

Iran state media share Lego propaganda video with figures blasting targets across the Middle East The Independent

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#3469295 12-Mar-2026 10:21

Excavators and workmen dug nearly 100 graves at a cemetery in Minab before the funeral for children and teachers killed in an airstrike on a school on Feb. 28.

The NY Times - U.S. at Fault in Strike on School in Iran, Preliminary Inquiry Says

11 March 2026

An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school ...

The Feb. 28 strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S. military, which was conducting strikes on an adjacent Iranian base of which the school building was formerly a part, the preliminary investigation found.

Officers at U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency ...

Striking a school full of children is sure to be recorded as one of the most devastating single military errors in recent decades. Iranian officials have said the death toll was at least 175 people, most of them children.

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kingdragonfly

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#3469311 12-Mar-2026 10:54

From Yesterday, Donald "the buck stops here" Trump says it was a Iranian plot. Iran used a Tomahawk to bomb themselves, presumably to make Trump look bad.

“No, in my opinion… that was done by Iran… They have no accuracy whatsoever.”
missile used “could have come from Iran or another country,” arguing Tomahawks are “widely available.”
Iran could have used a Tomahawk missile. He said Iran “also has some Tomahawks,”

Trump December 2019 “I know more about missiles than anybody.”

Real experts say Iran does not possess Tomahawk missiles.

Without Providing Evidence, Trump Pins School Bombing on Iran: FactCheck.org

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#3469327 12-Mar-2026 11:01

kingdragonfly:

missile used “could have come from Iran or another country,” arguing Tomahawks are “widely available.”

Totally. My son came home with a couple the other day that his uni friends had left over from Guy Fawkes. I told him to get rid of them; who knows how the sheep would react to one of those going off around here? They'll probably take them down to the beach and fire them at Brisbane or something, I dunno...

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#3469340 12-Mar-2026 11:23

kingdragonfly:
PolicyGuy: ...I know I'd rather be a bit short on diesel than a bit short on basic food items.

As mentioned before New Zealand and Australia use more diesel than petrol.

In every modern economy, including the Gulf states and New Zealand, the food system is almost entirely dependent on diesel from planting seeds to getting to the grocery store.

If diesel supply collapses, food availability collapses, even if farms are full of produce.

This has happened recently: 2022 Sri Lankan economic crisis, 2021 United Kingdom fuel supply crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic. Each time transport and labor bottlenecks caused produce to be dumped or left unharvested despite shortages elsewhere.

Food rotting in a paddock doesn’t feed people. A shortage of diesel very quickly becomes a shortage of food.

I'm sure that the Government is already focusing on fuel rationing so as to protect food supply. Not sure how many days supply of fuel NZ has, but with the closure of Marsden Point it wont be much.

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#3469360 12-Mar-2026 11:38

ChatGPT reliably informs me they can be purchased in the local fruit & vege section.

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gzt

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#3469362 12-Mar-2026 11:40

I'm sure that the Government is already focusing on fuel rationing so as to protect food supply. Not sure how many days supply of fuel NZ has, but with the closure of Marsden Point it wont be much.

There is a different active topic for fuel security please continue the fuel security aspect there:

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=162&topicid=324177

The latest NZ government update says we have 52 days.

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