2024 US Presidential election thread

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BDFL - Memuneh
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#3299800 22-Oct-2024 10:21

Not only that. It was staged, with the whole McDonald's closed just for this, and on Kamalah Harris's birthday.

Because, you know, "own the libs"

kingdragonfly

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#3299811 22-Oct-2024 10:56

ezbee:
What gets me is the level of stupid in all these Trump stunts.

So this is meant to prove Kamala 'never worked at a McDonalds' as possibly millions of young Americans have over the years.

I guess Trump a long distance truck driver too

GV27

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#3299863 22-Oct-2024 13:46

Sounds like Trump is now better than evens to win, with the race in PA tightening dramatically.

The gimmicks seem to be working, and the Democrats need something to counter than other than calling them gimmicks. Kind of feels like they're just being outflanked at this point.

ezbee

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#3299895 22-Oct-2024 15:01

Though the polling landscape is convoluted with GOP groups seeming to fund possibly dodgy polls ?
One was even caught out running two books as it were, a real poll and then a very biased poll which was the one publicized.

Why?
If you are going to energize people to 'stop the steal' you need polls that show overwhelming Trump win.
So if things swing the other way its rage and out with the guns.
Supports endless court challenges, and pressure on election officials to 'find' more votes.
Encourage more 'good people' to become alternative electors.
Even if it just sows confusion, its a propaganda tactic to use confusion, you can't trust anything except dear leader.

Despite the disaster that Trump is and he will lose the popular vote by a large number.
Swing states hang by only a few 1000 votes if that, so its not may people to buy.

There is also something that seems to be strong in USA ethos of picking the winner.
So a good poll gets more people to vote for you as they want bragging rights later.
Nutty but with minimal social services America is 'very dog eat dog', so if you can connect with a winner maybe.

Social media is full of people following scammers/influencers as they are good at posting fake photos/bios showing they are winning.

When Trump uses that language of name calling and calling opponents 'losers' it resonates with much of America. Winning is the American dream. Given dog-eat-dog thats winning above others not with.
His increasingly vile language unfortunately works.

Some last millennium long before the internet had worked this out, internet just turbocharges it.

kingdragonfly

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#3299960 22-Oct-2024 16:02

If I might be optimistic, Republicans and conservative do better than expected on uninteresting / boring / inevitable / foregone elections.

A high voter turnout in American elections is generally considered to be around 60% or higher of the eligible voting population.

Frankly if the 2020 presidential election wasn't the highest in over a century, about 67%, Trump would have won.

In my opinion, Biden would have lost to Trump this time due to lack of Democratic voter turnout.

Kamala may still lose, but I think she's running a campaign as strong as we can hope.

Silvio "bunga bunga parties" Berlusconi served as Prime Minister of Italy for three terms, so yeah, it's possible for Trump to win.

kingdragonfly

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#3300058 22-Oct-2024 18:32

Jake Tapper couldn’t get a straight answer from House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican) when he asked him Donald Trump’s recent rally riff about golfer Arnold Palmer’s penis on Sunday’s episode of “State of the Union.”

Trump: “When [Arnold Palmer] took the showers with other pros, they came out of there. They said, ‘Oh my God. That’s unbelievable.’”

'Nope, nope': Tapper pushes back on Johnson's defense of Trump

CNN

quickymart

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#3300067 22-Oct-2024 19:14

freitasm:

Not only that. It was staged, with the whole McDonald's closed just for this, and on Kamalah Harris's birthday.

What I find the most baffling is, of all the things he could attack Harris on (her policies, for example) he has a go at her on this?

I did read somewhere he asked someone at the McDonald's if she had ever worked there and was told no, but I don't know how a staffer on the floor would remember a colleague from over 40 years ago??

This was also fairly amusing:

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quickymart

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#3300068 22-Oct-2024 19:19

ezbee:

Quickymart. Don't underestimate.

'Free money' will draw in a wide swathe, and give them a direct pipeline to influence those that are confused sitting in the middle.
Something like 40% of Americans don't regularly vote.
If it only takes 1% to swing a swing state its not a lot.

Its highly targeted.
They can just knaw away at that one thing Trump or Musk might do for you.
While siloing you away in the torrent of social media from the disaster Trump is.
Cambridge Analytica ++

Its Americans.
There are interviews where people struggle to name a country on their border, how many states make up the USA, and who fought in the Civil War. Though could name every Kardashian.
Most don't have passports and may not know there is a world outside their state apart from evil feral Californians.

So far, two people have won, both Republicans, and both people who had already voted...so I'm hesitant to see this stunt as successfully getting the outreach the orange buffoon is thinking he's going to get:

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/21/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/elon-musk-million-winners-already-voted-00184772

quickymart

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#3300163 22-Oct-2024 23:33

TeaLeaf:

Just on polls...

Most recent from 538 (updated 11 hours ago, so probably a more recent update when we wake up tomorrow):

GV27

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#3300178 23-Oct-2024 06:40

quickymart:

Most recent from 538 (updated 11 hours ago, so probably a more recent update when we wake up tomorrow):

Trump was never going to win the popular vote; the battle ground polling on 538 is largely even or +1/+2 Republican with the exception of MN.

TeaLeaf

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#3300182 23-Oct-2024 07:27

quickymart:

Most recent from 538 (updated 11 hours ago, so probably a more recent update when we wake up tomorrow):

Whats interesting, go to RTTWH which is still tracking RFKjr polls. He shot up about 1.5% to 3.4% about a week or so back over a few days, at almost the same time was when Harris dropped ~1.4% over nearly the same few days. Polls dont flip like that, that quickly outside a major problem.

Of the recent GE polls, if I was to have a take on GE it would be to consider the larger polled numbers from the reasonable high quality of the recent Ipsos (~3400lv & rv's) both Harris +3% or Moring Consult (~8600lv's) Harris+4%. Still quite possibly completely wrong.

Given how many outlier polls there are as well, I just dont think outside the top rated polls (which also run "Bias") there is much point with the GE polls. another consideration is Optics post election.

Just my 2c on polls either way. So for me either way its time to strap in and hold on for the ride of not knowingness :-)

JPNZ

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#3300446 23-Oct-2024 11:33

I don't know what has changed in the last 7 days but in betting markets Trump has firmed dramatically in the last week. Implied odds to win now 62% vs 38% for Harris.

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Kyanar

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#3300460 23-Oct-2024 12:03

quickymart:

What I find the most baffling is, of all the things he could attack Harris on (her policies, for example) he has a go at her on this?

I did read somewhere he asked someone at the McDonald's if she had ever worked there and was told no, but I don't know how a staffer on the floor would remember a colleague from over 40 years ago??

It's even dumber than that - they asked McDonald's Corporation, who said that "no one named Kamala Harris has ever worked here". Well, duh, McDonald's Corporation has a double-digit number of stores! You'd have to ask the franchisee who operated the store, who'd probably say "were you kicked in the head by a donkey? How do you expect me to remember some random 18 year old that worked for me 42 years ago?"

wellygary

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#3300487 23-Oct-2024 13:26

Jethro West has come a long way....

"Growing up, Homelander dreamed of working at his local Vought A Burger.
Recently, his wish came true, as Vought shut down a restaurant and staged
pre-selected customers, so Homelander could “serve” “people” “food.”
Thanks, Homelander, for showing everyone how you’re a true man of the people!"

kingdragonfly

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#3300490 23-Oct-2024 13:49

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