mattwnz: It is interesting that it is valued at 200 million. Really wonder how that has been calculated.
Apparently Mega has 7 million users with 20,000 new sign up daily
But I imagine most will be free accounts, so they aren't making anything from those users. Whats a free user worth, especially as there are lot of providers offering similar type of services, so people can easily switch, or have accounts with lots of different providers.
mattwnz: It is interesting that it is valued at 200 million. Really wonder how that has been calculated.
Apparently Mega has 7 million users with 20,000 new sign up daily
how many are paying? how much are they paying? what are the customer acquisition costs for those new customers? what is the churn? then you can work out what the company is worth
Buzz Bumble: Yep, don't touch it with a bazillion-light-year long barge pole. Today's New Zealand Herald has multiple articles on this rubbish ... must be a slow news day. :-\
Must be. 3News screaming headlines tonite "Dotcom buys Mein Kampf copy signed by Hitler"
1. I would have to see a prospectus (with valuation information and forecasts). 2. I would have to believe that prospectus. 3. I would have to be comfortable with the regulatory/legal risks around the company. 4. I would have to have sufficient spare cash to take a risky punt on a fairly speculative investment in a risky industry.
So I won't be buying - it fails all four of my investment criteria.
$30 per user seems to be a fairly universal rule of thumb for valuing online services. It doesn't appear to matter whether or not those users are currently generating any revenue. What does appear to be important is that those users are potentially monetizable. It's weird.
nathan: In the case of Box, $9000 to acquire a user paying you back $30 a year (!)
That would be based on the growth curves of the businesses user base, they would expect a huge amount of growth. But I can't see the same for a company providing a free service, that they are going to be able to monetise those free customers. Instead people will just move to another free service, as there is no stickability' to the service that hooks someone to it. That is the key, and why facebook has a large value, because there is no alternative at that sort of scale, and it is very difficult for a new entrant can enter the market. Plus all their information is on it. Although things can change eg Myspace. Trademe is similar, as there is no one even close to competing to their size in the NZ market, and only a company like ebay could probably take them on.
nathan: In the case of Box, $9000 to acquire a user paying you back $30 a year (!)
That would be based on the growth curves of the businesses user base, they would expect a huge amount of growth. But I can't see the same for a company providing a free service, that they are going to be able to monetise those free customers. Instead people will just move to another free service, as there is no stickability' to the service that hooks someone to it. That is the key, and why facebook has a large value, because there is no alternative at that sort of scale, and it is very difficult for a new entrant can enter the market. Plus all their information is on it. Although things can change eg Myspace. Trademe is similar, as there is no one even close to competing to their size in the NZ market, and only a company like ebay could probably take them on.
those figures are actuals from the Box prospectus
I know nothing about Megas back door NZX listing
Just the crazy speculative valuation of box
9,000 to get each gross customer addition and generate only $30 a month in cash. They need a new business model.
nathan: In the case of Box, $9000 to acquire a user paying you back $30 a year (!)
That would be based on the growth curves of the businesses user base, they would expect a huge amount of growth. But I can't see the same for a company providing a free service, that they are going to be able to monetise those free customers. Instead people will just move to another free service, as there is no stickability' to the service that hooks someone to it. That is the key, and why facebook has a large value, because there is no alternative at that sort of scale, and it is very difficult for a new entrant can enter the market. Plus all their information is on it. Although things can change eg Myspace. Trademe is similar, as there is no one even close to competing to their size in the NZ market, and only a company like ebay could probably take them on.
those figures are actuals from the Box prospectus
I know nothing about Megas back door NZX listing
Just the crazy speculative valuation of box
9,000 to get each gross customer addition and generate only $30 a month in cash. They need a new business model.
This is an interesting analysis on how to value a tech company http://lancewiggs.com/2013/10/04/valuing-xero-in-1-hour/
"approximately 93% of our registered users are non-paying users"
"34,000 paying organizations"
"Sales and marketing expense also consists of datacenter and customer support costs related to providing our cloud-based services to our free users."
“Our business model focuses on maximizing the lifetime value of a customer relationship. We make significant investments in acquiring new customers..."
Sales and Marketing alone at Box is 138% of revenue.
JimmyH: 1. I would have to see a prospectus (with valuation information and forecasts). 2. I would have to believe that prospectus. 3. I would have to be comfortable with the regulatory/legal risks around the company. 4. I would have to have sufficient spare cash to take a risky punt on a fairly speculative investment in a risky industry.
So I won't be buying - it fails all four of my investment criteria.
5. Should not be owned / run by the court jester or his family.
Are you subscribed to our RSS feed? You can download the latest headlines and summaries from our stories directly
to your computer or smartphone by using a feed reader.
Trusted
