Auckland Weather 27/01/23 and Cyclone Gabrielle

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#3042325 26-Feb-2023 19:10

Jase2985:

will end up being the boy who cried wolf scenario.

make it out to be a massive storm and you need to evacuate, nothing happens, do that a few times and people loose faith in those whose job it is to predict the weather. they will then stop evacuating when asked to.

need to wait and access it more before starting to make a noise about it.

If its a cry wolf well before the potential scenario, then I agree. The fact is these scenarios have played out twice. Its cyclone season, the sea is still hot.

No one is saying evacuate now as a CAT 4 is bearing down, its not, and they are not. Its a warning.

What happens when this unlikely, then possible, then likely, then highly likely is ignored? Id rather have our kit ready, then stand down, than ignore the news in favour of MAFS then get caught.

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#3042327 26-Feb-2023 19:27

the 2 potentials are in the coral sea and north of fiji, we shouldnt even be talking about them yet.

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#3042329 26-Feb-2023 19:30

Jase2985:

the 2 potentials are in the coral sea and north of fiji, we shouldnt even be talking about them yet.

Complain to those that say its a higher risk, then forget it for a few days. The "forecast" can be the day before...

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#3042330 26-Feb-2023 19:32

Jase2985:

the 2 potentials are in the coral sea and north of fiji, we shouldnt even be talking about them yet.

thats what they said about the last one and look what happens. given that some places have been wacked twice in a row already, its a good idea to give them a heads up as early as possible.

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#3042331 26-Feb-2023 19:36

tweake:

thats what they said about the last one and look what happens. given that some places have been wacked twice in a row already, its a good idea to give them a heads up as early as possible.

Agree. i in 250 dont worry. Days later it happens again. Will it happen again? It could do, it could be worse, it could also be 6 drops of rain. Im not sure who would want to play roulette, I feel that 99.9% would want a warning, prepare, then it doesn't eventuate

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#3042332 26-Feb-2023 19:51

tdgeek:

Agree. i in 250 dont worry. Days later it happens again. Will it happen again? It could do, it could be worse, it could also be 6 drops of rain. Im not sure who would want to play roulette, I feel that 99.9% would want a warning, prepare, then it doesn't eventuate

Warn people when the chances are >50%. Right now it's a nothing. It's a storm in the general area, an area known for storms at this time of year. We didn't warn people last year when storms were in the same area.

Give people something to worry about when there is actually something to be worried about. Zero point worrying now.

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#3042334 26-Feb-2023 20:03

networkn:

Warn people when the chances are >50%. Right now it's a nothing. It's a storm in the general area, an area known for storms at this time of year. We didn't warn people last year when storms were in the same area.

Give people something to worry about when there is actually something to be worried about. Zero point worrying now.

Right now its a nothing? ok....

People, who unlike you, who are potentially affected are being warned/advised. Its not a nothing, otherwise it would not graduate from a low risk to a higher risk. Its a seasonal event, things are different now. And the seat temps, the fuel, are unchanged.

Two quick events, both 1 in 250. But we could ignore it, perhaps those in devastated areas may think otherwise.

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#3042338 26-Feb-2023 20:50

tdgeek:

Right now its a nothing? ok....

People, who unlike you, who are potentially affected are being warned/advised. Its not a nothing, otherwise it would not graduate from a low risk to a higher risk. Its a seasonal event, things are different now. And the seat temps, the fuel, are unchanged.

Two quick events, both 1 in 250. But we could ignore it, perhaps those in devastated areas may think otherwise.

Yes, right now for Kiwis living in NZ, it's nothing. There is NOTHING to worry about, nothing they can do regardless, that they wouldn't or shouldn't be doing already, and it's still considered a very low risk of impacting NZ at all. It does not need anything said or done about it. Even if it gets bigger, faster, etc, it's days to a week or more away, and worrying people whos nerves are already jangled is pointless and potentially harmful to their mental health.

When there is a moderate chance of it hitting NZ within a few days, then start talking to people about what they need to do to prepare.

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#3042340 26-Feb-2023 20:57

networkn:

Yes, right now for Kiwis living in NZ, it's nothing. There is NOTHING to worry about, nothing they can do regardless, that they wouldn't or shouldn't be doing already, and it's still considered a very low risk of impacting NZ at all. It does not need anything said or done about it. Even if it gets bigger, faster, etc, it's days to a week or more away, and worrying people whos nerves are already jangled is pointless and potentially harmful to their mental health.

When there is a moderate chance of it hitting NZ within a few days, then start talking to people about what they need to do to prepare.

Perhaps those in vulnerable areas, and who have been affected, who unlike you and me have no skin in the game might feel otherwise. Its not scaremongering its being kept aware.

Good to see its NOTHING to worry about... Tell that to those whose homes have one metre+ of silt in them and who are still trying to clean up.

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#3042341 26-Feb-2023 20:58

networkn:
Give people something to worry about when there is actually something to be worried about. Zero point worrying now.

This has been heavily studied, and unfortunately mostly ignored, in the field of cancer and cancer screening: Excessive fervour in reporting problems can actually cause more harm than good. That's not a vague aphorism, that's from actual data in large-scale cancer studies.

In particular in this case when you've got people who will already have PTSD from what they've been through, shocking them again had better be justified by strong evidence.

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#3042344 26-Feb-2023 21:01

tdgeek:
Good to see its NOTHING to worry about... Tell that to those whose homes have one metre+ of silt in them and who are still trying to clean up.

To be brutally honest, those people don't actually have anything to worry about from a future storm.

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#3042345 26-Feb-2023 21:02

tdgeek:

tweake:

thats what they said about the last one and look what happens. given that some places have been wacked twice in a row already, its a good idea to give them a heads up as early as possible.

Agree. i in 250 dont worry. Days later it happens again. Will it happen again? It could do, it could be worse, it could also be 6 drops of rain. Im not sure who would want to play roulette, I feel that 99.9% would want a warning, prepare, then it doesn't eventuate

boy who cried wolf right there.

people should be prepared for the chance of being without power and access to food/water external to them at all times anyways. but they dont.

Wait till you know where its going before starting to report on it and get people worried unnecessary. 3-5 days notice is all people realistically need. not weeks when it has a large chance of going elsewhere.

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#3042354 26-Feb-2023 21:18

tdgeek:

Perhaps those in vulnerable areas, and who have been affected, who unlike you and me have no skin in the game might feel otherwise. Its not scaremongering its being kept aware.

Good to see its NOTHING to worry about... Tell that to those whose homes have one metre+ of silt in them and who are still trying to clean up.

What pray tell is telling them about a storm that has more chance of not even getting here than has of doing so, doing to help them in their current situation? It gives them more worry, stress and less focus on what they need right now.

Stop twisting what I am saying into trying to make it look like I don't care about those people simply because I am also not sitting in 1m of silt.

I do care about them, which is why I am saying right now there is nothing they can achieve by worrying about something that more than likely will never get here.

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#3042355 26-Feb-2023 21:18

Wow ok, being appraised of potential MORE issues is not acceptable. Perhaps tell the media and weather services to button it for a while? Its not as though its an outlier event. If it comes to nothing great no harm done. People that needed to be prepared, were. To me, its keeping people aware, not a "I was right" post scoring theme

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#3042356 26-Feb-2023 21:25

networkn:

What pray tell is telling them about a storm that has more chance of not even getting here than has of doing so, doing to help them in their current situation? It gives them more worry, stress and less focus on what they need right now.

Stop twisting what I am saying into trying to make it look like I don't care about those people simply because I am also not sitting in 1m of silt.

I do care about them, which is why I am saying right now there is nothing they can achieve by worrying about something that more than likely will never get here.

Worrying vs being kept aware. The "storm" was a low chance, now its a high chance, and it can go Cat3 Plus. Whether it does or not, it will likely cause a lot of rainfall at best. It may completely bypass everyone. Is there no value in keeping people aware, given that its Cyclone Season (which has rarely bothered us) 2. The environment is no different than the two recent 1 in 250 events.

Clearly I am incorrect, we should be concerned about worrying people than keeping them informed.

Bolded. Get a grip

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