Auckland Weather 27/01/23 and Cyclone Gabrielle

Forums › Off topic › Auckland Weather 27/01/23 and Cyclone Gabrielle

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#3042524 27-Feb-2023 05:37

tdgeek:

Wow ok, being appraised of potential MORE issues is not acceptable. Perhaps tell the media and weather services to button it for a while? Its not as though its an outlier event. If it comes to nothing great no harm done. People that needed to be prepared, were. To me, its keeping people aware, not a "I was right" post scoring theme

your missing the mental harm bit there. the stress the worry.

Jase2985

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#3042526 27-Feb-2023 06:01

tdgeek:

networkn:

What pray tell is telling them about a storm that has more chance of not even getting here than has of doing so, doing to help them in their current situation? It gives them more worry, stress and less focus on what they need right now.

Stop twisting what I am saying into trying to make it look like I don't care about those people simply because I am also not sitting in 1m of silt.

I do care about them, which is why I am saying right now there is nothing they can achieve by worrying about something that more than likely will never get here.

Worrying vs being kept aware. The "storm" was a low chance, now its a high chance, and it can go Cat3 Plus. Whether it does or not, it will likely cause a lot of rainfall at best. It may completely bypass everyone. Is there no value in keeping people aware, given that its Cyclone Season (which has rarely bothered us) 2. The environment is no different than the two recent 1 in 250 events.

Clearly I am incorrect, we should be concerned about worrying people than keeping them informed.

Bolded. Get a grip

aware of what? something that more than likely will turn out to be nothing? people dont need weeks of notice on these things. Wait, confirm the course of the cyclone/weather event and then when its likely to hit let the masses know.

its apparent you care for people, but you dont seem to grasp the undue stress/mental anguish it puts on people hearing about another event. why put people through that when its unlikely to even make it to NZ?

and you realise you can not worry people as well as keep them informed right? it took 36 hours for the storm to make it from Northland to the Hawkes bay. and we knew for sure it was going to hit northland a couple of days prior to that, thats heaps of warning.

GV27

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#3042527 27-Feb-2023 06:19

Jase2985:

aware of what? something that more than likely will turn out to be nothing? people dont need weeks of notice on these things. Wait, confirm the course of the cyclone/weather event and then when its likely to hit let the masses know.

its apparent you care for people, but you dont seem to grasp the undue stress/mental anguish it puts on people hearing about another event. why put people through that when its unlikely to even make it to NZ?

I have two days a week to do things like clear gutters, get on ladders etc. Even if a storm takes ten days to get here, it's reasonable that people might only have a minimal amount of time to actually do the preparing bit i.e. one single weekend.

As for 'whether it even gets to NZ' - plenty of stuff comes nowhere near us but can give us an absolute soaking as they glide on past.

Want something to really worry about? The shortest predicted eruption cycle in Auckland is ninety minutes from quakes to show-time.

tdgeek

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#3042530 27-Feb-2023 07:09

Jase2985:

its apparent you care for people, but you dont seem to grasp the undue stress/mental anguish it puts on people hearing about another event. why put people through that when its unlikely to even make it to NZ?

If you feel that living in the dark is ok, that's fine. Having more notice of a possible issue is better than waiting for the experts to out of the blue say you got 3 days, as another cyclone that was "also" unlikely to hit NZ that was kept off the media, will now do so. Being able to fully prepare is more than just grabbing the handbag and car keys. I evaluate the stress from another possible event is better to be well forewarned and spread out the mental and physical load, rather than compressing both into 3 days (as you alluded to)

MikeB4

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#3042533 27-Feb-2023 07:39

In my case I need reasonable notice of an adverse event as I need time to plan and enough time to execute a plan to get to safety if indeed I can. However, the constant barrage of premature predictions and warnings have both a mental and physical impact. The stress and worry exacerbates anxiety and increases physical pain levels. The physical strain causes actual harm.

There needs to be a balance of professionals keeping folks reasonably informed or causing needless anxiety and harm. It's about welfare and not about clickbait and revenue.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

johno1234

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#3042534 27-Feb-2023 07:42

MikeB4:

In my case I need reasonable notice of an adverse event as I need time to plan and enough time to execute a plan to get to safety if indeed I can. However, the constant barrage of premature predictions and warnings have both a mental and physical impact. The stress and worry exacerbates anxiety and increases physical pain levels. The physical strain causes actual harm.

There needs to be a balance of professionals keeping folks reasonably informed or causing needless anxiety and harm. It's about welfare and not about clickbait and revenue.

It's the classic "boy who called wolf" problem. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't.

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tdgeek

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#3042539 27-Feb-2023 07:53

MikeB4:

In my case I need reasonable notice of an adverse event as I need time to plan and enough time to execute a plan to get to safety if indeed I can. However, the constant barrage of premature predictions and warnings have both a mental and physical impact. The stress and worry exacerbates anxiety and increases physical pain levels. The physical strain causes actual harm.

There needs to be a balance of professionals keeping folks reasonably informed or causing needless anxiety and harm. It's about welfare and not about clickbait and revenue.

I wouldn't call advice on developing storms that may or may not arrive here, or be another Gabrielle as premature predictions. Just keeping people informed.

MikeB4

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#3042541 27-Feb-2023 07:59

We have a friend that has recently retired from NIWA. He tells me that often what is released by NIWA and Metservice is very different to what ends up in the media and unrecognisable in social media and other "media".

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#3042579 27-Feb-2023 10:21

I dont see any issue with telling people to get prepared again. They will have used their storm supplies up if affected and replenishing those earlier is a better thing.

Richard rich.ms

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#3042608 27-Feb-2023 11:04

The issue with the media reporting 'potential' cyclones forming in the pacific, and some tiny chance they may dip south to NZ is that we are getting to the point where these warnings are becoming like road works signs - so many of them they are just ignored.

I was talking to someone affected by the Napier floods, and she says they had heard the warnings beforehand, but didn't really take them too seriously as it was just another warning. She said, just like the road works signs when no road works are happening.

Luckily for them, they didn't flood, and they were prepared (they did flood a few years ago), but I get her point. Stop warning about things until they actually need to be warned about. I don't think warning about a cyclone potentially forming above Fiji or the Solomons is something the media need to be putting in their bulletins until it actually forms, and until the relevant met services predict a possible path. That'd still give us a week or so.

johno1234

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#3042615 27-Feb-2023 11:21

This guy says the modelling shows low chance of tropical cyclone forming and hitting NZ: Weather forecast to March 1 + Tropics update - YouTube

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Jase2985

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#3042764 27-Feb-2023 12:53

johno1234:

This guy says the modelling shows low chance of tropical cyclone forming and hitting NZ: Weather forecast to March 1 + Tropics update - YouTube

he hit the nail on the head there

neb

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#3042767 27-Feb-2023 13:01

To give some actual hard data on unnecessary warning, since I gave cancer as an example: For prostate cancer, 1 in 100 will die of it with or without cancer screening, but 20 in 100 will get false positives or benign forms and undergo enormous amounts of stress, biopsies, chemotherapy, and so on for it (see "base rate fallacy"). For breast cancer, 21 of 1,000 women die of cancer, again with or without screening (makes no difference, about the same number of screened vs. unscreened women die, and since some of these women die with two or three types of cancer present it's often not even clear what the real cause was), but 100 of 1,000 women will have false positives, benign forms, unnecessary biopsies and therapy, and 5 of 1,000 will have unnecessary mastectomies.

Speaking of breast vs. prostate cancer, prostate cancer has about the same mortality rate and age class as breast cancer but there's no anxiety among men as there is for women and it's (correctly) presented in the media as an old person's disease. Colorectal cancer, which is close behind the other two, is virtually ignored (anyone here who isn't in the medical field or affected by it ever heard of it, let alone know that it's nearly as bad as breast cancer?).

One other thing, when attempts to inform the public of these issues have been made (groups like the Harding Center for Risk Literacy had a go some years ago) the response has been near-hysterical, so be careful who you repeat this to, and expect lots of pushback.

Zigg

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#3042959 28-Feb-2023 06:57

Judy

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#3042961 28-Feb-2023 07:24

Blocking highs to the south of us doing the lord's work in keeping stuff to the north to the north.

Although there is one to the west of us and if that disappears things could get spicy, but apparently unlikely at this stage. Just the usual summer upwell/afternoon thunderstorm risks for now in Auckland.

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