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tdgeek
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  #2975421 30-Sep-2022 12:03
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Dingbatt:

 

Some ‘Facts’ about “Ian” that may be of interest. Of the hurricanes that have been recorded to affect Florida*, “Ian” ;

 

Is the 4th equal in wind strength @ 240km/h, the greatest is the 1935 “Labor Day” hurricane that reached 295km/h,

 

Is the 9th equal lowest atmospheric pressure at 940 hPa, the 1935 once again being the most extreme at 892hPa,

 

To be in the ten deadliest hurricanes, its death toll will need to exceed 372. To be the worst there will need to have been more than 2500 deaths.

 

I have no doubt its cost in lives and wealth will be devastating. But am wary of “Worst Ever” headlines that are not borne out by facts. But as the saying goes, never let that stand in the way of a ‘good’ story.

 

 

 

 

 

* Data from HURDAT statistics published by the US Hurricane Center.

 

 

Id suggest that buildings and warnings are far better now than 90 years ago, so lives lost isn't really a good measure. IIRC the storm surge was extremely high, I'd be interested in the wind strength and rainfall, but in any case its a warmer, wilder winds, and a wetter world now, you would expect that events like this will be the norm. Its a lot like the hottest years. They aren't linear year on year, but the trend is up




Dingbatt
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  #2975442 30-Sep-2022 13:08
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tdgeek:

 

Id suggest that buildings and warnings are far better now than 90 years ago, so lives lost isn't really a good measure. IIRC the storm surge was extremely high, I'd be interested in the wind strength and rainfall, but in any case its a warmer, wilder winds, and a wetter world now, you would expect that events like this will be the norm. Its a lot like the hottest years. They aren't linear year on year, but the trend is up

 



 

Apologies in advance to quote a source that I can’t independently verify, but

 

“[T]here is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, and particularly on which factor has dominated the observed increase (Ting et al., 2015) and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability.”

 

IPCC AR6 WG1





“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


Rikkitic
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  #2975471 30-Sep-2022 14:06
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Dingbatt:

 

“[T]here is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, and particularly on which factor has dominated the observed increase (Ting et al., 2015) and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability.”

 

IPCC AR6 WG1

 

 

Since it remains uncertain, that means past changes could well be outside the range of natural variability. That seems to me a good reason not to be complacent about it.

 

 





Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

 


 




tdgeek
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  #2975476 30-Sep-2022 14:17
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Well, not sure what to say about that. Everywhere globally there is weather disruption, late monsoon, bigger monsoon, even here the salmon farm is shutting down or winding down as the fish are dying due to water temp

 

Effects are everywhere, its as simple as that. Is it easy to differentiate between natural and human caused changes? No. Is there a trend since the Industrial Revolution? Yes


Dingbatt
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  #2975510 30-Sep-2022 15:15
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All I’m doing is comparing sweeping statements and opinions in some posts, with facts published by official sources. More windy, yet the strongest hurricane on record in Florida was in 1935?

 

While I’m sure GZers are well read and knowledgeable, I’ll defer to official sources like NOAA, HURDAT and the IPCC.

 

Note: Scientific ‘uncertainty’ is specifically defined by the IPCC. It’s not just a case of being undecided, so let’s do this. “An abundance of caution” is not a science based concept, it is a political/media one.

 

Also Note: The start of the industrial revolution coincided with the end of a period known as “The Little Ice Age”. So yes, temperature is acknowledged to have increased since then. As has the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.





“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


tdgeek
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  #2975514 30-Sep-2022 15:26
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Ice ages and other periods occur over eons, not 200 years. 200+ years is less than a drop in a massive bucket in Earth's history. The temp change in that tiny period is high. IIRC the CO2 growth in the atmosphere doubled since 1980. As did the growth of human technology and the fuel it used for that growth

 

 


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  #2975522 30-Sep-2022 15:42
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Apologies in advance to quote a source that I can’t independently verify, but


“[T]here is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, and particularly on which factor has dominated the observed increase (Ting et al., 2015) and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability.”


IPCC AR6 WG1



“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”


 
 
 

Move to New Zealand's best fibre broadband service (affiliate link). Free setup code: R587125ERQ6VE. Note that to use Quic Broadband you must be comfortable with configuring your own router.
Batman
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  #2975570 30-Sep-2022 15:46
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kingdragonfly: If given a billionaire's choice between the environmental impact of making a park that attracts overseas visitors versus making phallic rockets for space tourists, I'd guess the park would win.


this is a parody

 

parody or not, billionaires don't care.

 

they will fly their private jets to conferences to tell you what to do to stop climate change.

 

some even sail their private yachts and fly their crew to meet them.


Dingbatt
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  #2975577 30-Sep-2022 16:04
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You missed “The Little” part of the Ice Age comment which covered a period of unusually cold Northern Hemisphere* winters between 1400 and the mid 1800s. A time when the River Thames completely froze over in London. It was unrelated to the glacial phases the earth has, which have a period of about 20000 years (eons). Likewise, the Medieval Warm Period (100s of years) that preceded it, is an anomaly in the interglacial cycle.

 

I agree that CO2 growth has accelerated with Earth’s burgeoning population and energy use. After all, you can’t go from 3 particles per ten thousand to four particles per ten thousand by magic.

 

 

 

*Insufficient data available to assess its existence in the Southern Hemisphere.





“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


Dingbatt
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  #2975582 30-Sep-2022 16:10
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Batman:

 

parody or not, billionaires don't care.

 

they will fly their private jets to conferences to tell you what to do to stop climate change.

 

some even sail their private yachts and fly their crew to meet them.

 



 

Of course they care!

 

Their next billion has to come from somewhere!





“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


Dingbatt
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  #2975584 30-Sep-2022 16:18
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kingdragonfly:
Apologies in advance to quote a source that I can’t independently verify, but

 

“[T]here is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, and particularly on which factor has dominated the observed increase (Ting et al., 2015) and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability.”

 

 

 

IPCC AR6 WG1

 



“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”

 

 

 

Sorry, I’m struggling to see any relevance in your post to the IPCC quote.

 

I’m assuming you aren’t trying to insult anyone, because that would be against the FUGs.

 

But then, so are political posts outside the politics forum.





“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


tdgeek
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  #2975588 30-Sep-2022 16:40
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I don't feel there was an insult factor there. My opinion is that while there are many variations over time, they do take a great deal of time to evolve. Its not just cars, the usual target. FF are used massively in all areas of production and consumption, cattle populations have grown hugely, deforestation for land use. The increase in temperature is very high on a chronological basis. Nature adapts over time, but as I mentioned a Nelson salmon farm is on the rocks as their fish are dying. 

 

I guess it comes down to how much of the last 200 years increase would have happened anyway. 


tdgeek
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  #2975636 30-Sep-2022 18:17
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Youtube has an inteersting doco.  2 Degrees Till the End. Global Warming Documentary. 

 

Russian scientists discussing their research, including the Maunder Minimum (about 25 mins) based on Solar activity and solar magnetism. There was another minimum 1997-2012, and a prediction that 2025 we would be in a global cooling period. 


gzt

gzt
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  #2975641 30-Sep-2022 18:50
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Mr. DeSantis went on to announce measures intended to reduce the role of E.S.G. — or “environmental, social and governance” policies — in investing in Florida’s pension system.

Meaning Florida pensions will be invested in dead end industries with dead end management from here on in. I would not want to be a Florida pensioner with DeSantis in charge.

gzt

gzt
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  #2975645 30-Sep-2022 18:55
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tdgeek: Russian scientists discussing their research, including the Maunder Minimum (about 25 mins) based on Solar activity and solar magnetism. There was another minimum 1997-2012, and a prediction that 2025 we would be in a global cooling period.

I have not watched yet but I can tell you the maunder minimum thing is warmed over and served in a different form every few years. Short story - it makes little real difference. For the long story ask NASA:

https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/

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