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# 214381 9-May-2017 08:30
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The future and software

 

 

 

An interesting talk by the MD of Daimler Benz a bit mind blowing really

 

An interesting concept of what could lay ahead. .

 

In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are…… There have always been the 3 constants ... Death, Taxes and CHANGE!

 

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

 

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world

 

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

 

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

 

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.

 

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

 

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

 

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

 

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

 

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

 

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

 

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

 

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

 

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

 

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

 

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

 

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

 

It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

 

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

 

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

 

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

 

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

 

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

 

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

 

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

 

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

 

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating
insects).

 

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

 

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

 

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

 

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

 

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.


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  # 1778276 9-May-2017 09:51
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Reminds me of a talk a listened to recently by Tony Seba.

 

He specifically focuses on clean energy and transportation, but it's an interesting perspective.

 

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says, and i'm sure much of it is his interpretation of the facts. Nonetheless, it's quite interesting.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM&t=1953s




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  # 1778284 9-May-2017 10:09
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Disrespective:

 

Reminds me of a talk a listened to recently by Tony Seba.

 

He specifically focuses on clean energy and transportation, but it's an interesting perspective.

 

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says, and i'm sure much of it is his interpretation of the facts. Nonetheless, it's quite interesting.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM&t=1953s

 

 

Cheers, will watch later

 

While I am sure many of these advances will occur over time, the main issue I feel is what consequences we have.

 

Being out of work would need to be considered normal, given that automation and software will manage many many things. But people need an income, as cashflow is the oil of an economy. Say a company today has 100 employees, tomorrow it may have 3, but it still needs to contribute to that same wage pool. There needs to be a restructure of the distribution of wealth. Maybe the 95% unemployment will mean we work 4 weeks a year instead of having 4 weeks a year on holiday. Fewer skills may be needed by workers. Some may opt for a business they can still run. There still would need to be a desire to make money, get rich, allow driven people to create products and ideas for everyone.

 

There could also be the widening of haves and havenots (workers/business people and non workers) creating a two level society.


 
 
 
 


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  # 1778303 9-May-2017 10:51
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We already have a two level society. A universal income (made affordable by all the automation productivity increases) without the moralistic crap currently attached to benefits is the way to go.

 

 





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  # 1778329 9-May-2017 11:25
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Rikkitic:

 

We already have a two level society. A universal income (made affordable by all the automation productivity increases) without the moralistic crap currently attached to benefits is the way to go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

How would it be funded? NZ already spends  circa $29Billion per annum on Welfare, add to that circa $15Billion on Health and $14Billion on Education that $58 Billion or near a third of our GDP





Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

Using empathy takes no energy and can gain so much. Try it.

 

 


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  # 1778332 9-May-2017 11:30
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As I said, it would be funded by the increased productivity brought about by AI automation. If machines are producing what people used to, you can afford to pay the people not to do the work.

 

 





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  # 1778336 9-May-2017 11:32
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Rikkitic:

 

As I said, it would be funded by the increased productivity brought about by AI automation. If machines are producing what people used to, you can afford to pay the people not to do the work.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who pays them? do you mean the likes of Fronterra or Spark would pay people that don't work for them ? 





Mike
Retired IT Manager. 
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

Using empathy takes no energy and can gain so much. Try it.

 

 




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  # 1778337 9-May-2017 11:32
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MikeB4:

 

Rikkitic:

 

We already have a two level society. A universal income (made affordable by all the automation productivity increases) without the moralistic crap currently attached to benefits is the way to go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

How would it be funded? NZ already spends  circa $29Billion per annum on Welfare, add to that circa $15Billion on Health and $14Billion on Education that $58 Billion or near a third of our GDP

 

 

Taxes on businesses would be increased to the level where wages are, so instead of companies paying wages, they pay that extra in tax, and the non workers get paid a universal income


 
 
 
 




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  # 1778338 9-May-2017 11:33
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Rikkitic:

 

We already have a two level society. A universal income (made affordable by all the automation productivity increases) without the moralistic crap currently attached to benefits is the way to go.

 

 

 

 

In this context, two level is workers (very few) and non workers (the vast majority)


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  # 1778339 9-May-2017 11:34
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Rikkitic:

 

As I said, it would be funded by the increased productivity brought about by AI automation. If machines are producing what people used to, you can afford to pay the people not to do the work.

 

 

Add increased productivity and the turnover goes up, too. But I'm not too sure if this is the golden goose to a universal wage. Economies of scale and population densities may not make a universal wage something we can achieve within our lifetimes.

 

*shrug* I'm a cynical optimist. While i'm optimistic we could make it happen here in NZ, i'm cynical that we have it within ourselves to legislate it right now.


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  # 1778340 9-May-2017 11:36
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tdgeek:

 

 

 

Taxes on businesses would be increased to the level where wages are, so instead of companies paying wages, they pay that extra in tax, and the non workers get paid a universal income

 

 

 

 

How would that increase investment?  it would be more advantageous for a company to reduce earnings to reduce tax burdens or just keep their money in the bank and earn interest. This all sounds somewhat Marxist or Star Trekish





Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

Using empathy takes no energy and can gain so much. Try it.

 

 




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  # 1778343 9-May-2017 11:39
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MikeB4:

 

Rikkitic:

 

As I said, it would be funded by the increased productivity brought about by AI automation. If machines are producing what people used to, you can afford to pay the people not to do the work.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who pays them? do you mean the likes of Fronterra or Spark would pay people that don't work for them ? 

 

 

That's my suggestion at least. I dont subscribe to the extra productivity by automation, as if you want 500 nuts and bolts, there is no point in producing 2000 even if you can. Machines replace people, so the owners of those machines (companies) pay the people. The reason is keeping the distribution of wealth stable. If say you had 100% unemployment due to machines and software, you have all people, with no income to spend on the products and services as the companies make all the money. But they cant make any money as there is no sales. All the money will be in their banks theoritically  (I use the 100% unemployment to make my point clearer). If its 95% or 80% or 50%, the same inherent issue applies 




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  # 1778352 9-May-2017 11:56
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MikeB4:

 

tdgeek:

 

 

 

Taxes on businesses would be increased to the level where wages are, so instead of companies paying wages, they pay that extra in tax, and the non workers get paid a universal income

 

 

 

 

How would that increase investment?  it would be more advantageous for a company to reduce earnings to reduce tax burdens or just keep their money in the bank and earn interest. This all sounds somewhat Marxist or Star Trekish

 

 

The thread is about if and when automation and software vastly take over humans working. The article gave many examples of how that can happen. Its not a movement towards a political issue, its how do we maintain the balance of having a currency that is earned by working and spent on goods, if the humans have no need or place to work

 

 


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  # 1778362 9-May-2017 12:03
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tdgeek:

 

 

 

The thread is about if and when automation and software vastly take over humans working. The article gave many examples of how that can happen. Its not a movement towards a political issue, its how do we maintain the balance of having a currency that is earned by working and spent on goods, if the humans have no need or place to work

 

 

 

 

 

 

History has shown that advances in technology either increases jobs or shifts job focus. If the World was to see a big shift to large scale job losses due to increased automation this would very much be a political issue. The impact on our society would make the Great Depression and the GFC look like speed wobbles.





Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

Using empathy takes no energy and can gain so much. Try it.

 

 


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  # 1778424 9-May-2017 13:00
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Productivity will become less important. For example, lots of people now have careers dependent on sports, which produces nothing of any material value. Sport used to be strictly amateur -- a personal past-time and self-entertainment; now it's all very professional and a lot of money is spent on sport. 

 

Probably also human services (waiters, cooks, caregivers, counselors, teachers, funeral directors) will become more available/cheaper; perhaps all the "workers" will have housemaids and gardeners and so on? There will still be lots of lawyers and politicians. Maybe travel agents will make a comeback.

 

And I hope that, as being "productive" becomes less important, more time/money will be spent on being "creative".

 

 


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  # 1778432 9-May-2017 13:19
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To keep it simple, let us say that a minimum wage hamburger flipper working at Heart Attack Heaven is replaced by a robot. Other than routine maintenance, the robot incurs no costs and is far more productive than the human as it can work 24 hours a day with no breaks. Instead of paying the human wages, Heart Attack Heaven pays a levy (call it a tax if you prefer) for being allowed to have the robot replacement. The business is better off because the robot does a better job than the human did, but costs no more than the human's wages and benefits. The human receives compensation in the form of a universal income that is equivalent to or better than the former salary. There are no strings attached (unlike WINZ) so the human is free to study or pursue another income-generating opportunity such as a service-providing business venture, or to travel, or even to blob out at home and kill herself with illegal drugs and alcohol. Everyone wins and there is no economic shock because Heart Attack Heaven carries on with the same business model, the government gets the same taxes from its profits, and the human worker is much better off unshackled from a soul-deadening job and can now afford to do much more rewarding volunteer work. 

 

 





I reject your reality and substitute my own. - Adam Savage
 


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