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Topic # 59234 30-Mar-2010 18:30
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I was just reading this thread

http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?ForumId=49&TopicId=27322

I know its old but just thought I'd give me three cents worth

When I left London in '99 the small business i was working on had dual channel ISDN (128K!!! it was 64k unless we told it to open the other channel and bond for Turbo internet!) and we thought we were rocking!

Although I woke up somewhat upon arriving back in Auckland, where my friend had a new Jetstream connection (and an old Nokia M10) and was getting around 8mb/s

So in 2000 we had 8mb/s ADSL in central auckland, so now a decade later in 2010 I wonder how many ppl can put their handsup and say truthfully that they get a steady 8mb/s??

I think the point Im trying to make is that the other copper technologies VDSL etc are just another patch and that if we are truely to progress here and set ourselves up for the shorterm future, fibre to the door is the best way forward.

Is this the way forward??

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  Reply # 312979 30-Mar-2010 19:07
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Yes its the way forward, but no it wont solve the current international problems we have.

We really need compeition for the southern cross cable.

Without it they regulate our international prices and since they are a business (and a monopoly) its going to be high.

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  Reply # 312992 30-Mar-2010 19:17
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Taken straight from the Chorus website:

We're busy deploying 3,600 roadside cabinets and 2,500 kilometres of new fibre optic cable as part of our commitment to enable the delivery of broadband connections between 10Mbps and 20Mbps to 80% of New Zealanders by the end of 2011.


VDSL2 will give speeds up to 50Mbps down, for over 50% of New Zealanders by the end of 2011.

People really need to get all the facts around FTTD and the costs involved, for example Vector's fancy ad campaign doesn't tell you to expect your plan prices to more than double for the same amount of data you currently get, or the $500+ install cost you are likely to see.

 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 313012 30-Mar-2010 19:32
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Dimsim, I in a way have to agree with your sentiment. Reality is that most web servers for will limit each connections throughput. So if you are pulling from a US or European server to get more than 2-4Mb/s is lucky, and limited either by the source server or most likely limitations in TCP over long delay circuits.

Even pulling traffic from NZ servers will still never flood a 8Mb/s ADSL1 connection, why, again the servers limit each connection or the servers just are not well enough connected.

Where higher connection speed from the BRAS to the home (facilitated by good ADSL2+ or VDSL2 or FTTH) is the fact that as time goes on there is not one PC in the home connected to each modem but each family member is out there doing their own thing, so the last leg speed is important because its got so many more TCP connections to serve. As time goes by this gets more and more, kids today expect so much more of the net, its expected, its the norm its just has to be there.

Cyril

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  Reply # 313016 30-Mar-2010 19:39
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Cymro:
VDSL2 will give speeds up to 50Mbps down, for over 50% of New Zealanders by the end of 2011.


"Up to" 50Mbps. Yeah, great. One person who lives in the exchange gets 50Mbps, and everyone else gets 20Mbps if they're lucky.


expect your plan prices to more than double for the same amount of data you currently get


Oh really? Say, got any figures to back that up? No? And what's your basis? We're paying $110/mo for 50GB. So that'll be $220 for 50GB in 8 years on fibre then? Oh, ok. Funny that you mention only speed when talking about VDSL2, then switch to data cap and price when talking about fibre. Anyway, I guess you must be right. I feel sorry for Vector who will of course lose a lot of money since they want to offer services that people obviously don't want. But that's all part of their insidious plan, right?

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  Reply # 313022 30-Mar-2010 19:44
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cyril7: Dimsim, I in a way have to agree with your sentiment. Reality is that most web servers for will limit each connections throughput. So if you are pulling from a US or European server to get more than 2-4Mb/s is lucky, and limited either by the source server or most likely limitations in TCP over long delay circuits.

Even pulling traffic from NZ servers will still never flood a 8Mb/s ADSL1 connection, why, again the servers limit each connection or the servers just are not well enough connected.
Cyril


Anyone who cares about the speed they download at isn't going to be using a single stream. And there are already multiple people in single houses using the internet at once. Not to mention the fast-growing use of P2P for legal content delivery.

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  Reply # 313039 30-Mar-2010 19:58
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Screeb:
Cymro:
VDSL2 will give speeds up to 50Mbps down, for over 50% of New Zealanders by the end of 2011.


"Up to" 50Mbps. Yeah, great. One person who lives in the exchange gets 50Mbps, and everyone else gets 20Mbps if they're lucky.


expect your plan prices to more than double for the same amount of data you currently get


Oh really? Say, got any figures to back that up? No? And what's your basis? We're paying $110/mo for 50GB. So that'll be $220 for 50GB in 8 years on fibre then? Oh, ok. Funny that you mention only speed when talking about VDSL2, then switch to data cap and price when talking about fibre. Anyway, I guess you must be right. I feel sorry for Vector who will of course lose a lot of money since they want to offer services that people obviously don't want. But that's all part of their insidious plan, right?


Sorry, do you have info or exposure to the Wholesale VDSL2 trial from last year? I do, and far more than "one person who lives in the exchange" gets close to 50Mbps, of the lines I saw I don't think any failed to get at least 35Mbps, so your "everyone else gets 20Mbps if they're lucky" is yet another made up on the spot internet stat.

Linking the article which goes into the probable NZ UFB pricing would break the FUG here(?) But google CommsDay Australia and read the articles on likely NZ costs ($65 compared to UBA at $22ish today, and based on it only costing $3bn for the whole network, which is probably at least 50% light), and the leaked info from the Australian discussion docs putting their prices around $A65.

Do you have any info or experience in this area or are you just stating your opinion here as fact?

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  Reply # 313061 30-Mar-2010 20:18
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My understanding from documented results of the VDSL2 tests indicated that those within the 6-700m cable capture got 35Mb/s without issue, the 15Mb/s upstream and the low latency of VDSL2 over ADSL (due to no ATM aspect, only pure 802.X packaging) where the other added benefits.

If you look at the FTTN rollout, in the more densely city/suburb populated areas the coverage are of each cabinet is a lot smaller than earlier design targets, why well a lot probably has to do as to how many ports easily fit in each cabinet, and probably a over design level that Telecom are anticipating for more densely populated city areas.

Cyril

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  Reply # 313068 30-Mar-2010 20:25
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Cymro:
Sorry, do you have info or exposure to the Wholesale VDSL2 trial from last year? I do, and far more than "one person who lives in the exchange" gets close to 50Mbps, of the lines I saw I don't think any failed to get at least 35Mbps, so your "everyone else gets 20Mbps if they're lucky" is yet another made up on the spot internet stat.


It wasn't a "made up stat", it was hyperbole to go along with your overblown statement. No one got below 35Mbps you say? Well given my distance to the exchange, I wouldn't be able to get even 30Mbps - and I live in a wealthy suburb. Was the trial in real-world conditions? Did 50% of the population in the testing area (with full or almost full exchanges of course - to compare to many current real-world situations) have and use VDSL2? Did they live spread out in varying distances away from the exchange or cabinet, up to 2km as in the real world (no, they didn't, because VDSL2 doesn't give you >35Mbps unless you're much closer than that)?


Linking the article which goes into the probable NZ UFB pricing would break the FUG here(?) But google CommsDay Australia and read the articles on likely NZ costs ($65 compared to UBA at $22ish today, and based on it only costing $3bn for the whole network, which is probably at least 50% light), and the leaked info from the Australian discussion docs putting their prices around $A65.


I can't find that article, but I've seen those figures discussed here, and there was much disagreement over their accuracy. You still haven't reconciled the fact that Vector is planning on actually making money, hence will need to offer a service that people are willing to pay for. If people are willing to pay for it, then it will be at least as good as the competing services offered.


Do you have any info or experience in this area or are you just stating your opinion here as fact?


I need info or expertise to ask for your sources?

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  Reply # 313075 30-Mar-2010 20:30
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Was the trial in real-world conditions? Did 50% of the population in the testing area (with full or almost full exchanges of course - to compare to many current real-world situations) have and use VDSL2?


No the number on VDSL2 would have been small, but if you are asking whats the use of that speed without aggregation and backhaul to support it, then think again, over the last few months Telecom has put significant investment and upgrade into the level of aggregation bandwidth such that if you have an issue then talk to your ISP, cause the problem is not likely to be an issue with the final leg (ie xDSL part) nor the link back to the handover.

Cyril

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  Reply # 313076 30-Mar-2010 20:32
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Come on people, lets keep this on topic, and steer away from personal attacks.

Let the people reading this decide who and what they want to take on boart, and just agree that different people have different opinions based on their experiences/insight/research.

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  Reply # 313091 30-Mar-2010 20:53
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cyril7:
Was the trial in real-world conditions? Did 50% of the population in the testing area (with full or almost full exchanges of course - to compare to many current real-world situations) have and use VDSL2?


No the number on VDSL2 would have been small, but if you are asking whats the use of that speed without aggregation and backhaul to support it, then think again, over the last few months Telecom has put significant investment and upgrade into the level of aggregation bandwidth such that if you have an issue then talk to your ISP, cause the problem is not likely to be an issue with the final leg (ie xDSL part) nor the link back to the handover.

Cyril


Except telecom/chorus still only guarentee 32kbps per customer for backhaul.. Maybe once that changes..

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  Reply # 313097 30-Mar-2010 20:59
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Auckland CBD, excellent quality line, ADSL2+ router, close to exchange. Fantastic.

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  Reply # 313105 30-Mar-2010 21:06
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Screeb:
Cymro:
Sorry, do you have info or exposure to the Wholesale VDSL2 trial from last year? I do, and far more than "one person who lives in the exchange" gets close to 50Mbps, of the lines I saw I don't think any failed to get at least 35Mbps, so your "everyone else gets 20Mbps if they're lucky" is yet another made up on the spot internet stat.


It wasn't a "made up stat", it was hyperbole to go along with your overblown statement. No one got below 35Mbps you say? Well given my distance to the exchange, I wouldn't be able to get even 30Mbps - and I live in a wealthy suburb. Was the trial in real-world conditions? Did 50% of the population in the testing area (with full or almost full exchanges of course - to compare to many current real-world situations) have and use VDSL2? Did they live spread out in varying distances away from the exchange or cabinet, up to 2km as in the real world (no, they didn't, because VDSL2 doesn't give you >35Mbps unless you're much closer than that)?


Please explain how my statement is overblown, and that somehow justifies your use of hyperbole?
Are you due to be cabinetised in the next 2 years? If not then sorry, maybe you are in the % who won't get the service, but then again I never claimed everyone would.
Incidentally, care to comment on the potential for Bonded VDSL2 in those scenarios?

Screeb:
Linking the article which goes into the probable NZ UFB pricing would break the FUG here(?) But google CommsDay Australia and read the articles on likely NZ costs ($65 compared to UBA at $22ish today, and based on it only costing $3bn for the whole network, which is probably at least 50% light), and the leaked info from the Australian discussion docs putting their prices around $A65.


I can't find that article, but I've seen those figures discussed here, and there was much disagreement over their accuracy. You still haven't reconciled the fact that Vector is planning on actually making money, hence will need to offer a service that people are willing to pay for. If people are willing to pay for it, then it will be at least as good as the competing services offered.


The numbers are open to discussion, the UFB network hasn't even had a design accepted yet so it's hard to guage the exact cost, but you can put it in the right ballpark (cost to build vs number of households vs % uptake vs ROI and margins).
You keep saying Vector want to offer something that people are willing to buy, have you considered they also might want $1.5bn of free assets?
Lets put that to one side for the moment, what do you think the market is for ultra-fast broadband in New Zealand? What is the population demographic here, and how many baby boomers are you going to have to force into using a UFB Broadband connection they don't really want, need or understand it in order to make your network economical? (Incidentally, that wasn't hyperbole, do the math).

Do you have any info or experience in this area or are you just stating your opinion here as fact?


I need info or expertise to ask for your sources?

Sorry, I thought I had made my sources quite clear, I was asking on what factual basis you have formed such a strong opinion that you are willing to argue it so forcibly?

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  Reply # 313106 30-Mar-2010 21:06
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Charles000:

Auckland CBD, excellent quality line, ADSL2+ router, close to exchange. Fantastic.


How sure are you that your line is OK? What is your sync rate? If this is significantly higher the problem lies with the ISP and you can't blame the broadband infrastructure. If you sync speed isn't much higher than your speeds then your line possibly isn't as good as you think it may be,


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 313108 30-Mar-2010 21:07
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Charles000:

Auckland CBD, excellent quality line, ADSL2+ router, close to exchange. Fantastic.


And wireless?

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