Sky announced performance numbers and drops HD Ticket Fee

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#2192254 6-Mar-2019 15:11

Interesting

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/111019729/analyst-sees-potential-for-sky-tv-takeover-as-shares-sink-to-143

mattwnz

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#2192260 6-Mar-2019 15:15

tdgeek:

Interesting

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/111019729/analyst-sees-potential-for-sky-tv-takeover-as-shares-sink-to-143

I makes a lot of sense that they are ripe for a takeover. A problem I see though is who is actually able to buy it. Spark comes to mind, but this happened previously when another ISP tried to merge https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/333802/sky-vodafone-drop-plans-for-merger It is amazing how much of a turnaround Spark have had over recent years.

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#2192264 6-Mar-2019 15:18

Exactly, no ISP can buy it because it would be anti competitive. The number of companies with the money to buy it are limited in NZ, and only those who felt it complimentary to their offerings would be in the market anyway.

At those prices, I could almost buy it :)

In my view the natural correct buyer was Vodafone. I felt the comcom decision was dumb.

tdgeek

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#2192280 6-Mar-2019 15:29

An RSP is the logical choice, but the Voda decision set a precedent. The share price is a nice cheap purchase, the level of profitability that is required has dropped a lot. Maybe an Amazon who can buy the 3/4 million subscribers and current rights. If Spark fails to fire, Sky will be worth more, if Spark does very well, the Sky shares go further south. Still plenty of risk here still. An Amazon could come her and just break Sky, then Skys shareholders will want a takeover. Lots of options = volatile

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#2192294 6-Mar-2019 15:34

quickymart:

networkn:

...the CEO...

...has already started his clean up!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12207402

I cant believe no one has said this....

Last out the door, turn the lights out!

tdgeek

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#2192301 6-Mar-2019 15:40

nzkc:

quickymart:

networkn:

...the CEO...

...has already started his clean up!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12207402

I cant believe no one has said this....

Last out the door, turn the lights out!

Thats actually a likely positive. Its change, out with the old in with the new, although the new guy is not new. The new CEO is away overseas doing something, to me it looks like sleeves rolled up and getting stuck in. I'm still picking a capital buyback to reduce the size of Sky and help make today's metrics more compatible. Its a large company now not a behemoth anymore by NZ standards

MikeB4

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#2192303 6-Mar-2019 15:41

Any buyer would be offshore and that would be bad for the NZ consumer.

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nzkc

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#2192310 6-Mar-2019 15:46

tdgeek:

nzkc:

quickymart:

...has already started his clean up!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12207402

I cant believe no one has said this....

Last out the door, turn the lights out!

Thats actually a likely positive. Its change, out with the old in with the new, although the new guy is not new. The new CEO is away overseas doing something, to me it looks like sleeves rolled up and getting stuck in. I'm still picking a capital buyback to reduce the size of Sky and help make today's metrics more compatible. Its a large company now not a behemoth anymore by NZ standards

I think you missed my gag!

As I'm not a subscriber I'm not too fussed about what happens at SkyTV.

tdgeek

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#2192318 6-Mar-2019 15:52

nzkc:

tdgeek:

nzkc:

quickymart:

...has already started his clean up!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12207402

I cant believe no one has said this....

Last out the door, turn the lights out!

Thats actually a likely positive. Its change, out with the old in with the new, although the new guy is not new. The new CEO is away overseas doing something, to me it looks like sleeves rolled up and getting stuck in. I'm still picking a capital buyback to reduce the size of Sky and help make today's metrics more compatible. Its a large company now not a behemoth anymore by NZ standards

I think you missed my gag!

As I'm not a subscriber I'm not too fussed about what happens at SkyTV.

:-). Given the Sky love here, yes that was missing!

Might be a good time to throw a few lazy k at Sky shares

mattwnz

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#2192322 6-Mar-2019 15:57

networkn:

Exactly, no ISP can buy it because it would be anti competitive. The number of companies with the money to buy it are limited in NZ, and only those who felt it complimentary to their offerings would be in the market anyway.

At those prices, I could almost buy it :)

In my view the natural correct buyer was Vodafone. I felt the comcom decision was dumb.

Things have changed a lot since it was made, as there is now more competition in this market. The are essentially 3 larger content providers now, Sky TV, Netflix, and Lightbox/spark tv to a degree. The last thing I think we need is some overseas company buying it, and the profits then going offshore, and another company lost on the NZ sharemarket. It somewhat puts NZ companies at a big disadvantage IMO, over overseas ones, if they can't buy it

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#2192329 6-Mar-2019 16:03

tdgeek:

Might be a good time to throw a few lazy k at Sky shares

Lol - you got to be kidding. Those share are only going one way...

I don't see them being bought by anyone in the near future. In the long run Sky might survive, but I'm certain they're going to be a much smaller company, with a lot less subscribers, less content, and a lower value per month from each subscriber.

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#2192379 6-Mar-2019 16:10

mattwnz:

networkn:

Exactly, no ISP can buy it because it would be anti competitive. The number of companies with the money to buy it are limited in NZ, and only those who felt it complimentary to their offerings would be in the market anyway.

At those prices, I could almost buy it :)

In my view the natural correct buyer was Vodafone. I felt the comcom decision was dumb.

Things have changed a lot since it was made, as there is now more competition in this market. The are essentially 3 larger content providers now, Sky TV, Netflix, and Lightbox/spark tv to a degree. The last thing I think we need is some overseas company buying it, and the profits then going offshore, and another company lost on the NZ sharemarket. It somewhat puts NZ companies at a big disadvantage IMO, over overseas ones, if they can't buy it

It would be a disgrace if Spark was given Commerce Commission approval after Spark complaining about the proposed Vodafone/Sky merger. I cannot see 2 Degrees being interested as they been more or less on the market for quite a while. The Vocus Group could be a possibility but I doubt if they have the financials to make such a purchase at this time.

It is possible that an Energy Company may go sniffing. Other than that all I can see is an offshore equity group buying, stripping and then selling the remains.

tdgeek

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#2192381 6-Mar-2019 16:11

sub:

tdgeek:

Might be a good time to throw a few lazy k at Sky shares

Lol - you got to be kidding. Those share are only going one way...

I don't see them being bought by anyone in the near future. In the long run Sky might survive, but I'm certain they're going to be a much smaller company, with a lot less subscribers, less content, and a lower value per month from each subscriber.

Thanks for that, I will reel you in now. Most will realise what I was getting at.

At the share price they are cheap, they have assets, 750,000 subscribers, they make good money. Production capability is second to none They own rights to a lot of content. At their peak I think they probably had 830,000? Its still a big business which you can buy cheap, and use what I bolded to reshape it.

If there was a takeover, it wit be at 143. It will be 190 or 225 , that's where you make a quick buck. If Sky remodelled itself under the new CEO the share price won't do a lot, they will want out now I feel.

networkn

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#2192382 6-Mar-2019 16:11

tdgeek:

An RSP is the logical choice, but the Voda decision set a precedent. The share price is a nice cheap purchase, the level of profitability that is required has dropped a lot. Maybe an Amazon who can buy the 3/4 million subscribers and current rights. If Spark fails to fire, Sky will be worth more, if Spark does very well, the Sky shares go further south. Still plenty of risk here still. An Amazon could come her and just break Sky, then Skys shareholders will want a takeover. Lots of options = volatile

Why would Amazon buy Sky, they are very different delivery systems. I couldn't imagine them having any interest. The profit they would make vs the committment to traditional delivery systems (ie sat) would be way out of whack and the transition would be pitiful slow and painful with all current progress toward SVOD being abandoned in favour of the Sky model.

tdgeek

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#2192394 6-Mar-2019 16:14

MikeB4:

mattwnz:

networkn:

Exactly, no ISP can buy it because it would be anti competitive. The number of companies with the money to buy it are limited in NZ, and only those who felt it complimentary to their offerings would be in the market anyway.

At those prices, I could almost buy it :)

In my view the natural correct buyer was Vodafone. I felt the comcom decision was dumb.

Things have changed a lot since it was made, as there is now more competition in this market. The are essentially 3 larger content providers now, Sky TV, Netflix, and Lightbox/spark tv to a degree. The last thing I think we need is some overseas company buying it, and the profits then going offshore, and another company lost on the NZ sharemarket. It somewhat puts NZ companies at a big disadvantage IMO, over overseas ones, if they can't buy it

It would be a disgrace if Spark was given Commerce Commission approval after Spark complaining about the proposed Vodafone/Sky merger. I cannot see 2 Degrees being interested as they been more or less on the market for quite a while. The Vocus Group could be a possibility but I doubt if they have the financials to make such a purchase at this time.

It is possible that an Energy Company may go sniffing. Other than that all I can see is an offshore equity group buying, stripping and then selling the remains.

I think Matt was suggesting that with extra competition, that Voda could retry this. Sky doesn't hold all the sport anymore, that may continue, so sport was the big issue before, its less so now

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