Real estate, post COVID-19 level 4 (since 2020)

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#2599351 7-Nov-2020 07:05

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/38617

The last point cracked me up:

5. The system works

The property market isn’t broken and doesn’t penalise one sector over another. Left alone, without Government and Reserve Bank interference, the market does exactly what it’s supposed to do and develops wealth, security and comfort for the vast majority of New Zealanders. If you go into your first home buying adventure with patience, a strong resolve and sensible expectations you’ll win through. Best of luck.

Try telling that to the people that have been to many, many open homes and bidded lots/placed lots of offers, yet still can't get anything.

Like this woman here: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/house-hunting-in-aucklands-hot-property-market-just-too-hideous/XQN7AT64FYCVP7FIN3RLNI2J3Y/

quickymart

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#2602959 12-Nov-2020 18:25

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-on-house-prices-it-just-cannot-keep-increasing-at-the-rate-that-is/CCIRZPUJIW3FXYPCTQK6A7JZNI/

She's right.

mattwnz

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#2602963 12-Nov-2020 18:45

quickymart:

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/38617

The last point cracked me up:

5. The system works

The property market isn’t broken and doesn’t penalise one sector over another. Left alone, without Government and Reserve Bank interference, the market does exactly what it’s supposed to do and develops wealth, security and comfort for the vast majority of New Zealanders. If you go into your first home buying adventure with patience, a strong resolve and sensible expectations you’ll win through. Best of luck.

Try telling that to the people that have been to many, many open homes and bidded lots/placed lots of offers, yet still can't get anything.

Like this woman here: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/house-hunting-in-aucklands-hot-property-market-just-too-hideous/XQN7AT64FYCVP7FIN3RLNI2J3Y/

So aren't they are basically saying that housing is not than just shelter. It is a way for people who are lucky enough to own their own home , another form of tax free income via capital gains when the sell. So doesn't this just increase the wealth gap between people who rent and those that own a house? imo it has got to an extreme level driven by the low interest rates which were supposed to be a temporary measure. House prices wouldn't be as high as they are now if interest rates weren't as low as they are now. IMO it is also showing that our wages are far too low to get ahead, as house prices are increasing at a far higher rate than wage inflation. Each time the interest rates reduce, it just means that first home buyers have to pay more, and need a bigger deposit.

tdgeek

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#2603005 12-Nov-2020 20:24

mattwnz:

So aren't they are basically saying that housing is not than just shelter. It is a way for people who are lucky enough to own their own home , another form of tax free income via capital gains when the sell. So doesn't this just increase the wealth gap between people who rent and those that own a house? imo it has got to an extreme level driven by the low interest rates which were supposed to be a temporary measure. House prices wouldn't be as high as they are now if interest rates weren't as low as they are now. IMO it is also showing that our wages are far too low to get ahead, as house prices are increasing at a far higher rate than wage inflation. Each time the interest rates reduce, it just means that first home buyers have to pay more, and need a bigger deposit.

While I agree, RBNZ faced an economic disaster, unemployment thru the roof, etc, etc, its hard to foresee that the pandemic, and the lack of ability to spend up on overseas travel might cause a housing boom. If they had raised interest rates a tad to stem house prices, then many were unemployed and lose equity or their house the world would have ended. A tough choice.

halper86

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#2603020 12-Nov-2020 20:35

As a young person that still has a fair wee way to go to owning my own home, I really do hope this is only going to be a temporary problem. Myself and others I know around the same stage of life are getting overwhelmed by this situation - especially since housing is essential to life and the way the media report on the situation. I believe there should be a better solution than the failed Kiwibuild program - one where younger people can voice their opinions and, with older FHB’s, have almost some sort of priority to the housing market (as well as education about owning a first home) so the more FHB-suitable houses don’t just go straight onto the rental market. I know any solution isn’t going to please everybody and that’s just how life is, but this is a problem that could not have come at any worse time.

quickymart

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#2603247 13-Nov-2020 11:40

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/123383043/politicians-point-finger-over-runaway-housing-market

While it's nice they're all pointing fingers at each other (well, not really) how about doing something about the situation?

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tdgeek

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#2603254 13-Nov-2020 11:50

quickymart:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/123383043/politicians-point-finger-over-runaway-housing-market

While it's nice they're all pointing fingers at each other (well, not really) how about doing something about the situation?

Yes, but what do you do?

1. Build 60,000 houses this year to equalise supply and demand.

2. Put interest rates up to 8% to reduce demand

Both would reduce prices but are unworkable.

quickymart

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#2603314 13-Nov-2020 12:00

That's true. Apart from building a tonne of houses (or apartments) - in my view - there isn't much of a quick, easy fix :/

tdgeek

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#2603330 13-Nov-2020 13:10

quickymart:

That's true. Apart from building a tonne of houses (or apartments) - in my view - there isn't much of a quick, easy fix :/

Ive suggested before a Housing Tax. Yes, that wonderful word tax, so lets call it a Levy. You buy an existing home you pay the Govt $20,000, maybe more. This means that it may cause house prices to drop as buyers have a budget. Maybe Levy at 5% of house sale. Conversely, lets put that Levy into a grant for new home builders, building is now cheaper, so we build more, which also takes some heat from existing home purchases. And of course taxing land banks.

wellygary

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#2603334 13-Nov-2020 13:35

tdgeek:

quickymart:

That's true. Apart from building a tonne of houses (or apartments) - in my view - there isn't much of a quick, easy fix :/

Ive suggested before a Housing Tax. Yes, that wonderful word tax, so lets call it a Levy. You buy an existing home you pay the Govt $20,000, maybe more. This means that it may cause house prices to drop as buyers have a budget. Maybe Levy at 5% of house sale. Conversely, lets put that Levy into a grant for new home builders, building is now cheaper, so we build more, which also takes some heat from existing home purchases. And of course taxing land banks.

Reality will eventually catch up with the FOMO..

There is a big pile of housing coming down the pipe and no one to fill them... the whole there are "thousands of kiwis" flocking home is just bunk....

"The number of new homes consented in Auckland for the September 2020 year was 15,470, and 37,725 nationally. This was the highest number of annual new homes consented in Auckland since the series began in April 1990."
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/auckland-building-consents-top-1-billion

"In the six months from April 2020 to September 2020, overall net migration was provisionally estimated at 2,500" - for 6 months!!!!
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/low-monthly-migration-since-april-2020

aspett

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#2603335 13-Nov-2020 13:38

There is a big pile of housing coming down the pipe and no one to fill them... the whole there are "thousands of kiwis" flocking home is just bunk....

I think you'll eat those words in the future. We already have thousands of empty houses - people will just continue to invest in any further housing regardless of whether there's someone to go in it or not.

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#2603337 13-Nov-2020 13:40

Yep. If they all built they would not affect the housing stocks but many will buy I assume.

shk292

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#2603338 13-Nov-2020 13:40

tdgeek:

Ive suggested before a Housing Tax. Yes, that wonderful word tax, so lets call it a Levy. You buy an existing home you pay the Govt $20,000, maybe more. This means that it may cause house prices to drop as buyers have a budget. Maybe Levy at 5% of house sale. Conversely, lets put that Levy into a grant for new home builders, building is now cheaper, so we build more, which also takes some heat from existing home purchases. And of course taxing land banks.

AKA stamp duty, as seen in UK and elsewhere. Certainly makes the whole business of moving more expensive - in fact it was significantly cheaper for me to move my family to NZ than half a mile down the road, when I moved back in '05. I guess it must have some dampening effect on house prices, but it wouldn't do much for the popularity of any govt introducing it

tdgeek

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#2603340 13-Nov-2020 13:54

aspett:

I think you'll eat those words in the future. We already have thousands of empty houses - people will just continue to invest in any further housing regardless of whether there's someone to go in it or not.

This was discussed a while back. Empty homes as counted by the Census, which is where Dept of Stats gets the numbers, includes people on holiday, houses being reno'ed after or before sale, houses built and not yet moved into, spec homes for sale, people who upgraded/downgrade and the old house is on the market, and rentals in between tenants. Yes, there are "empty" houses in your context but not that any at all

antonknee

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#2603368 13-Nov-2020 15:01

There may be a whole pile of consented houses coming down the pipe (although cosnented doesn't = built/building), but are they affordable? Are they in places people want to live?

I've been actively looking for a while - it's near impossible. I have very luckily recently been promoted and therefore gotten a decent payrise, but even including that it's still very, very difficult.

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