2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2577360 1-Oct-2020 15:46

DS248:
wellygary:

But back to COVID ,

...

The drums on T/Tasman bubble continue to beat loader, so it might be worth cranking that thread back up.....

Vic, single digits or low-mid teens for the last week

NSW, one local case (unknown source?) in last week (5 days ago)

QLD, about 11 days since last local case, and 4 weeks since last unknown source case

WA, one local case (known source) in last 5+ weeks, 3+ months since last unknown source case

Eliminated elsewhere in AU

So Vic aside, AU territories either similar to NZ (NSW) or better.

'Local hotspot' concept for TT bubble does not seem unreasonable in the reasonably near term, provided contact tracing and other systems are at least in sync.

A new unknown case in NSW is a concern and in NZ could lead to a lockdown. I wonder what Australia’s testing rate is outside of Victoria.

ezbee

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#2577387 1-Oct-2020 17:45

A bit puzzled by this ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12369642
""
"[The Government] should also seriously study the pros/cons of purpose-built quarantine facilities in places such as Ōhakea Airbase," he told the Science Media Centre.
""

Wonder if anyone has thought of how long it would take to build facilities that will accommodate 5K, 10K or more people in reasonable comfort.
( Aircon and all that ).
Complete with Kitchens of sufficient capacity , Linen Washing , Staff accommodation, water, waste etc.

Suppose Nissen huts would result in mass breakout and general carnage.

Hidei , welcome to Butlans "Ōhakea" .

Might make a great comedy along the lines of...
John Clarke's 'The Games' when this is all over and we are ready for humor on this subject.
https://mrjohnclarke.com/projects/the-games

I know that there was some effort on container cells for prison overflow, which I thought should not have been hard.
Little container bungalows, resell them afterwards for batches ?

Might take so long we will have 2nd and 3 generation vaccines by then ?

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#2577405 1-Oct-2020 18:33

ezbee:

A bit puzzled by this ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12369642
""
"[The Government] should also seriously study the pros/cons of purpose-built quarantine facilities in places such as Ōhakea Airbase," he told the Science Media Centre.
""

....

They are just talking about people who have tested positive for the virus so a capacity of something like 200-300 should hopefully be sufficient.

But still, the idea comes off as nuts.

It would take at least several months to study and subsequently construct a purpose built quarantine facility. The need for it could well have passed by then...

Additionally I question the location. NZ has not intentionally repatriated infected people (I think countries like the USA did that from Wuhan or the cruise ship in japan). As such our positives will be turning up at our isolation facilities which are weighted by where people are arriving into. Overwhelmingly the facilities linked to Auckland Intl airport - Auckland, Hamilton, Rotorua. Every time somebody tests positive they need to be relocated to Ohakea, a 6 hour drive. Moving infected people poses a significant risk. Travel time could be reduced by going by air, but then even more people are exposed.

The resourcing and support needed to run the isolation facility would also be more challenging to source in Ohakea.

And when somebody infected needs hospital care they would need to be transferred back to a major city hospital with appropriate facilities like negitive pressure rooms.

Finally the cost. We are talking about a purpose built facility, not a few camper vans parked on the grass. The facility will need to be a weird hotel / hospital lite / prison combo. Ain't going to come cheap. Renting jetpark for a year sounds like a far cheaper option.

I know one staff member has got sick working at jetpark, but are their any indications that the facility itself is problematic for quarantine purposes?

PolicyGuy

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#2577411 1-Oct-2020 18:49

ezbee:

A bit puzzled by this ?
"[The Government] should also seriously study the pros/cons of purpose-built quarantine facilities in places such as Ōhakea Airbase," he told the Science Media Centre.

Wonder if anyone has thought of how long it would take to build facilities that will accommodate 5K, 10K or more people in reasonable comfort. ( Aircon and all that ). Complete with Kitchens of sufficient capacity , Linen Washing , Staff accommodation, water, waste etc.

You left out the medical centre they'd have to build

Actually, I think the main problem - apart from getting a Resource Consent at all - would be waste water / sewage disposal.
I suspect the Ohakea sewage treatment plant discharges waste water with somewhat limited treatment into the Rangitikei River, a design that would have been perfectly adequate when it was built, but not so much nowadays.

Even with an "pedal to the metal" approach, I can't see the consenting process taking much less than a year.
Then you've got the actual construction process, starting with the essential infrastructure including the new, improved, much larger waste water treatment facility, roading, and a new or enlarged electricity distribution substation, I think there's only 11kV there, no 33kV, so it might actually be a problem.

I reckon if they started in earnest in December, they might open 'Stage 1' before Christmas 2022

tdgeek

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#2577413 1-Oct-2020 18:57

GV27:

tdgeek:

How quick and how reliable?

Do they need to be super reliable? As a preventative measure to stop one case from possibly turning into 12, it could be worth the hassle.

Obviously you wouldn't use it to decide whether someone is quarantined or not, but if you can stop one person getting on a plane and infecting a whole bunch...

We have probably had well north of 50,000 come through the border now, thats working.

tdgeek

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#2577414 1-Oct-2020 18:59

mattwnz:

A new unknown case in NSW is a concern and in NZ could lead to a lockdown. I wonder what Australia’s testing rate is outside of Victoria.

How can that lead to a NZ lockdown? The TT is only an idea, its nothing more

tdgeek

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#2577418 1-Oct-2020 19:07

Scott3:

They are just talking about people who have tested positive for the virus so a capacity of something like 200-300 should hopefully be sufficient.

But still, the idea comes off as nuts.

It would take at least several months to study and subsequently construct a purpose built quarantine facility. The need for it could well have passed by then...

Additionally I question the location. NZ has not intentionally repatriated infected people (I think countries like the USA did that from Wuhan or the cruise ship in japan). As such our positives will be turning up at our isolation facilities which are weighted by where people are arriving into. Overwhelmingly the facilities linked to Auckland Intl airport - Auckland, Hamilton, Rotorua. Every time somebody tests positive they need to be relocated to Ohakea, a 6 hour drive. Moving infected people poses a significant risk. Travel time could be reduced by going by air, but then even more people are exposed.

The resourcing and support needed to run the isolation facility would also be more challenging to source in Ohakea.

And when somebody infected needs hospital care they would need to be transferred back to a major city hospital with appropriate facilities like negitive pressure rooms.

Finally the cost. We are talking about a purpose built facility, not a few camper vans parked on the grass. The facility will need to be a weird hotel / hospital lite / prison combo. Ain't going to come cheap. Renting jetpark for a year sounds like a far cheaper option.

I know one staff member has got sick working at jetpark, but are their any indications that the facility itself is problematic for quarantine purposes?

Yes, it is nuts. We have demonstrated that we can eliminate the virus, and when we get an unknown (and expected) outbreak, it can be managed.

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DS248

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#2577442 1-Oct-2020 20:09

mattwnz:
DS248:

...

Vic, single digits or low-mid teens for the last week

NSW, one local case (unknown source?) in last week (5 days ago)

QLD, about 11 days since last local case, and 4 weeks since last unknown source case

WA, one local case (known source) in last 5+ weeks, 3+ months since last unknown source case

Eliminated elsewhere in AU

So Vic aside, AU territories either similar to NZ (NSW) or better.

'Local hotspot' concept for TT bubble does not seem unreasonable in the reasonably near term, provided contact tracing and other systems are at least in sync.

A new unknown case in NSW is a concern and in NZ could lead to a lockdown. I wonder what Australia’s testing rate is outside of Victoria.

1. One local case in NSW today but it is considered an historical infection - same as the recent NZ historical cases, so would be of no more concern than the NZ cases; ie. "The epidemiological and laboratory investigations indicate the infection likely occurred two months ago." (Source: NSW Health). Notification date for the last 'new' unknown case was 7 days ago (& one prior to that was 24 days ago).

2. NSW performed 13,072 tests yesterday & 13,575 the day before vs NZ figures of 5679 & 4969 respectively. So per capita more than 50% higher than the NZ rate (for 1 new local case in ~10 days). Vic testing rate of course a bit higher again.

mattwnz

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#2577445 1-Oct-2020 20:16

DS248:

2. NSW performed 13,072 tests yesterday & 13,575 the day before vs NZ figures of 5679 & 4969 respectively. So per capita more than 50% higher than the NZ rate (for 1 new local case in ~10 days). Vic testing rate of course a bit higher again.

Thanks for the info, and that is reassuring. I wonder how they can get so more people taking the test?

Batman

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#2577495 1-Oct-2020 21:22

mattwnz:

DS248:

2. NSW performed 13,072 tests yesterday & 13,575 the day before vs NZ figures of 5679 & 4969 respectively. So per capita more than 50% higher than the NZ rate (for 1 new local case in ~10 days). Vic testing rate of course a bit higher again.

Thanks for the info, and that is reassuring. I wonder how they can get so more people taking the test?

if you have 4 million people within a 50km radius vs 4 million within a 1000km radius it's a lot easier to test, but also a lot easier to spread the virus. got to pick the poison.

frankv

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#2577790 2-Oct-2020 09:01

Fred99:

Batman:

Elon Musk declares he won't take covid vaccine

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/29/business/elon-musk-nyt-podcast-covid-vaccine/index.html

Elon Musk called a hero who saved the boys trapped in a cave in Thailand a "Paedo".

Probably best to ignore his personal opinion and choices on most things - he's a proper dick.

To clarify - his "opinion" that as his wife and son and he are in a "low risk" group thus the risk of vaccination outweighs in his mind the risk of the disease is immensely selfish and shows clearly that he does not give a f%&K about fellow human beings.

FWIW, I am not anti-vax. I do get the annual flu jab. I do care about fellow human beings. I am not an Elon Musk fan, and agree that he's a bit of a dick. Not that it's relevant, but some people, wrongly in my opinion, probably think I'm a proper dick. Not that it's relevant, but some time ago I called someone a paedo (correctly, I believe).

But I think Musk made a rational decision, and given the rush to produce and release a vaccine, right now I'd make the same choice. My thinking is that, even though I am not particularly low risk for getting killed by covid, I am low risk of catching it, being in NZ. OTOH, I think that in the absence of thorough testing there is a significant but unknown risk of harm from getting vaccinated. Thalidomide, whilst not a vaccine, is a case in point of an under-tested medication being released. I certainly don't trust big Pharma, nor the FDA, nor their equivalents in Russia or China or the UK or anywhere else that much in this situation. There's too much money at stake, and too much political pressure.

We should all make rational decisions about our health. That includes deciding to get vaccinated for the public good, where the public good is also our good. But I'm not going to volunteer to be a guinea pig under the current circumstances. This is not being selfish, it's being not stupid.

The correct answer is to lower the risk of harm from the vaccination, not to disparage Musk's opinion and baselessly impute character deficiencies.

1101

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#2577829 2-Oct-2020 10:06

frankv:

The correct answer is to lower the risk of harm from the vaccination, not to disparage Musk's opinion and baselessly impute character deficiencies.

Thats the the problem , Musks opinion is just that, an opinion.

The ONLY people who's opinion we should give any time to are the Viral Scientists & Doctors who treat Covid patients .
real experts , with years working in this feild , and real training with relevant dregrees.
Not billionaires , not matter how much they give to charity
not politicians
not scientists who are experts in something else , but dont work in this feild
not mathematicians
not Adern, not Trump, not the Swedes

Scott3

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#2577840 2-Oct-2020 10:28

Wellington private school offers boarding house to bring back international students

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/122920636/wellington-private-school-offers-boarding-house-to-bring-back-international-students

Seems to just be a plea for media attention.

No mention if the boarding house is actually suitable for isolation purposed.

It is mentioned it is a 130 bed facility but cannot be run at full capacity due to double rooms. If we assume the rooms are all doubles, then it can only hold 65 individuals (I assume all international students come as individuals?). Probably too small for economies of scale with regards to security, health management etc.

Also there is no mention of en-suites. Typically student accommodation does not have these, but they are essential for isolation to eliminate shared bathrooms as a path for potential transmission.

Hammerer

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#2577862 2-Oct-2020 11:33

1101:

The ONLY people who's opinion we should give any time to are the Viral Scientists & Doctors who treat Covid patients .
real experts , with years working in this feild , and real training with relevant dregrees.
Not billionaires , not matter how much they give to charity
not politicians
not scientists who are experts in something else , but dont work in this feild
not mathematicians
not Adern, not Trump, not the Swedes

That is not a realistic option for any public policy-making!

We should evaluate any opinion on its merits. There is a long history of negative outcomes when we only heed the opinions of "the experts" within their realm: group-think/blind-spots/shared assumptions that are incorrect, internal politics, over- or under-commitment, failure to explore radical or politically-risky options, etc.

Plus it is not how modern science works. Peer review is a primary mechanism but it is not the only mechanism to decide what we should do.

Nor is it how policy-making works. Which is where every non-expert might get a say.

Nor is it how work is funded. Hence the opportunity for relevant inputs from politicians and private funders including billionaires.

frankv

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#2577990 2-Oct-2020 13:24

ezbee:

A bit puzzled by this ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12369642
"[The Government] should also seriously study the pros/cons of purpose-built quarantine facilities in places such as Ōhakea Airbase," he told the Science Media Centre.
"

A speculation by someone who hasn't thought much about it. Construction resources are a bit slim nationwide, let alone around Ohakea which is busy with construction of facilities for the Poseidons. Plus the impact of bringing all covid cases needing ICU to Palmerston North hospital.

But maybe the Government should think about it for the *next* pandemic. How about Waiouru, which IIRC the Army is in the process of leaving? Bonuses... no need for that expensive aircon that someone mentioned. And people aren't going to want to wander around in the middle of the night. ;)

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