2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2609458 23-Nov-2020 20:51

Astra Zeneca Oxford vaccine initial efficacy results have been released. They trialled two dosing methods, one with 1/2 strength dose then full strength a month later, the other with two full strength doses > month apart.. The first method worked better ~ 90% efficacy vs 62%.

More information here:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html

(Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are also 2 shots).

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#2609563 24-Nov-2020 07:30

It's starting to leave NZ in a bit of a hole. Our Got have announced they don't expect a vaccination program to be complete until well into 2022, and we're going to have border quarantine until at least 31st Dec 2021 with the expectation this will exist into 2022 as well.

Meanwhile the UK expects semi normality by Easter with a mass vaccination campaign in Feb and March for the first dose, and even Australia has said a vaccination rollout will be complete for everybody who wants it well before the end of 2021 (and producing 25 million doses of the Oxford vaccine locally which will be all be complete by March, and up to 50 million of their own University of Queensland vaccine which will be ready mid year). Already Qantas are now expecting preparation for intl flights to commence around the middle of 2021 with the expectation of quarantine free travel starting to occur from then. Of course Australia is on the verge of making it mandatory to have had a vaccination to enter Australia, and Qantas making it mandatory to have had a vaccination to fly on one of it's planes.

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#2609568 24-Nov-2020 08:09

an article about lady who designed the oxford vaccine https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55043551

any ideas how they came up with the 65% and 90% effectiveness magical numbers for this one?

Fred99

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#2609581 24-Nov-2020 08:44

sbiddle:

It's starting to leave NZ in a bit of a hole. Our Got have announced they don't expect a vaccination program to be complete until well into 2022, and we're going to have border quarantine until at least 31st Dec 2021 with the expectation this will exist into 2022 as well.

I wouldn't worry too much about NZ being left at the end of a queue. The logistics of coordinating who gets the vaccine first and how and what should be left to experts. The objective of vaccine rollout should be public health based, not based on resurrecting the airline industry.

So far with trials it's a hat trick, three leading contenders have all worked, and worked extremely well. They've still got to go through the approval process, and I doubt EUA would be granted as it has been for antibody/antiviral treatments etc, as with a vaccine the aim is to vaccinate billions of people, the treatments granted EUA on "compassionate grounds" to treat people who are very unwell.

I expect that when govt talked about timing of vaccination programs, the possibility that several different vaccines could be approved by the end of this year would have been a wild dream.

OTOH the only way to find out how long immunity/protection lasts is to wait and see.

Good luck to Aus with "compulsory" vaccination. It's going to bring up human right and medical ethics issues and stir-up the hoople-heads to believe morons on facebook and other fake news sources. There's no shortage of them in Australia (or anywhere else where the batsh*t crazies have got a hold - including here).

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#2609583 24-Nov-2020 08:55

Batman:

any ideas how they came up with the 65% and 90% effectiveness magical numbers for this one?

It's kind of weird, probably the first dose of the 1+1 primed the immune system so the response to the second dose was reduced, the 0.5 + 1 worked better. They must have suspected such a thing may happen - to run trials that way.

OTOH these % are based on small numbers. Thousands of participants in the trial, a hundred or so contract Covid in the community, out of those a handful who were vaccinated caught Covid.

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#2609586 24-Nov-2020 09:00

Fred99:

Batman:

any ideas how they came up with the 65% and 90% effectiveness magical numbers for this one?

It's kind of weird, probably the first dose of the 1+1 primed the immune system so the response to the second dose was reduced, the 0.5 + 1 worked better. They must have suspected such a thing may happen - to run trials that way.

OTOH these % are based on small numbers. Thousands of participants in the trial, a hundred or so contract Covid in the community, out of those a handful who were vaccinated caught Covid.

Are the participants exposed to the virus or is it just a case of see if you get it. Go lick handrails at a mall etc.

I'm not a complete idiot, I still have some parts missing.

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Fred99

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#2609588 24-Nov-2020 09:08

sittingduckz:

Are the participants exposed to the virus or is it just a case of see if you get it. Go lick handrails at a mall etc.

They're just sent back into the community. They run the trials in places where there's a high rate of community transmission.

Deliberately exposing trial participants is a "challenge trial". If you did that in a double blind-placebo trial, then you're infecting 1/2 the volunteer participants to a disease that could kill them.

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#2609591 24-Nov-2020 09:17

Fred99:

Good luck to Aus with "compulsory" vaccination. It's going to bring up human right and medical ethics issues and stir-up the hoople-heads to believe morons on facebook and other fake news sources. There's no shortage of them in Australia (or anywhere else where the batsh*t crazies have got a hold - including here).

Looks to be condition of entry of the carriers. No different to a pub and right of admission reserved? Or kicking smokers outside?

No rights quashed there. They have a choice. Comply to gain permission to use service, or don't and stay home?

Other than the usual 'bill of rights' and 'freedom of movement'

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#2609671 24-Nov-2020 10:32

sittingduckz:

Are the participants exposed to the virus or is it just a case of see if you get it. Go lick handrails at a mall etc.

exactly. just vacc 100 dudes (instead of 30,000) with the real thing, don't give placebo and get them to walk around the covid wards after the 2nd dose. but ethics ...

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#2609677 24-Nov-2020 10:41

Fred99:

Good luck to Aus with "compulsory" vaccination. It's going to bring up human right and medical ethics issues and stir-up the hoople-heads to believe morons on facebook and other fake news sources.

When I emigrated to NZ as a small child many years ago, a whole bunch of vaccinations (smallpox, diphtheria, etc.) were mandatory, I think. However, it appears from googling & Immigration NZ's site that nowadays no vaccinations are mandatory, although quite a number are recommended. Immigrants are generally required to provide a medical certificate and Xray certificate. The medical certificate requires a blood test. So some medical ethics and human rights have already been trampled. I'd guess that's pretty standard for most countries, but of course doesn't apply to visitors.

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#2609697 24-Nov-2020 11:14

Fred99:

Good luck to Aus with "compulsory" vaccination. It's going to bring up human right and medical ethics issues and stir-up the hoople-heads to believe morons on facebook and other fake news sources. There's no shortage of them in Australia (or anywhere else where the batsh*t crazies have got a hold - including here).

I'm not sure where you read Australia is forcing vaccinations on their citizens - they're not, and have made that very clear.

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#2609700 24-Nov-2020 11:19

Batman:

an article about lady who designed the oxford vaccine https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55043551

any ideas how they came up with the 65% and 90% effectiveness magical numbers for this one?

They are not "effectiveness" numbers. They are efficacy numbers. They are not one and the sameand mean two very different things although many media use them interchangeably because they don't seem to realise this.

And the 70% and 90% efficacy numbers they quoted last night came from their testing and the two numbers were from different trials. The 70% average was from giving people two doses of the full dose vaccine, however they found (accidently it seems, when they gave incorrect doses) a half dosage and then a full dose a month later the participants in that trial showed 90% efficacy.

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#2609701 24-Nov-2020 11:20

Victoria now have no active cases, they are less than a week from 28 days of no community transmission, and would qualify as having reached "elimination" status,

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-24/last-victorian-covid-patient-leaves-hospital/12913756

NSW appear to be in the final stages of mopping up its remaining cluster, with no Community transmission for 16 days, and SA appears to have escaped its pizza-gate outbreak turning into a full scale disaster....

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#2609715 24-Nov-2020 11:57

frankv:

Immigrants are generally required to provide a medical certificate and Xray certificate. The medical certificate requires a blood test. So some medical ethics and human rights have already been trampled.

Human rights been trampled? How so? There are rules for almost everything in life, and most things are voluntary, as immigrating is.

alexx

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#2609759 24-Nov-2020 12:55

Fred99:

Astra Zeneca Oxford vaccine initial efficacy results have been released. They trialled two dosing methods, one with 1/2 strength dose then full strength a month later, the other with two full strength doses > month apart.. The first method worked better ~ 90% efficacy vs 62%.

More information here:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html

(Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are also 2 shots).

The big deal here is this part:

The vaccine can be stored, transported and handled at normal refrigerated conditions (2-8 degrees Celsius/ 36-46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months and administered within existing healthcare settings.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

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