2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2634629 13-Jan-2021 07:51

kingdragonfly:
Sideface:

The Washington Post - Disneyland will become mass vaccination site amid ‘worst disaster’ in decades

today

Make sense. They have plenty of parking and shuttles, big roads, and set up to handle big queues.

Yes, the parking building is massive

tdgeek

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#2634631 13-Jan-2021 07:53

Why are we delaying vaccinations? I thought early on we were partnering wth Australia.

Fred99

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#2634651 13-Jan-2021 08:54

tdgeek:Why are we delaying vaccinations? I thought early on we were partnering wth Australia

I think awaiting medsafe approval, approvals overseas (US etc) are EUA (emergency use authorization) not full approval as clinical trial data isn't completed.
As there's no CT, the need is less urgent, though I think MIQ staff should be offered it ASAP.
If there's an outbreak of CT, then I hope they factor in that there's a delay between vaccination and immunity - say if there was a need to urgently protect vulnerable groups, rest home residents etc. Also it's still not known how long immunity lasts. I think it's confirmed that "at least 8 months" but we'll only know when time has passed. If it's not longer, then you could vaccinate the population, by the time that's completed then the first people vaccinated may no longer be immune.

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#2634655 13-Jan-2021 09:04

Thanks.

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#2634731 13-Jan-2021 10:20

tdgeek:

Why are we delaying vaccinations? I thought early on we were partnering wth Australia.

TL;DR: we aren't

Medsafe are waiting for the full results of the Phase 3 trials of the different vaccines to give a full, non-emergency approval. Since we don't have uncontrolled community transmission, unlike the UK and USA for example, NZ has no reason to go with an emergency authorisation at the moment. (What Fred99 said while I was typing slowly 😀)
I'd concede that there is somewhat of a case for airport international terminal and Quarantine workers to get early vaccine access, but it would be better IMO for them to be super-vigilant with their PPE and hygiene precautions and thereby not get Covid. However I'm sure this is something that MoH, MBIE, NZPol & NZDF have under constant risk review.

By the way, as someone who would be near the front of the priority queue for vaccination when significant community vaccinations begin, I am really quite happy for the UK, USA and EU to conduct a mass "Stage 4 trial" for me, and for NZ to wait five or six months to see how that goes before I line up for a stab in the shoulder. Note that I am not in the slightest an anti-vaxxer, I have been getting my flu jab every year for at least a couple of decades

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#2634747 13-Jan-2021 10:49

Good points. Economically it may suit us as well perhaps. We can accept incoming travellers with no MIQ if they are vaccinated (one day when the shedding is more well known) , and we still can't travel ourselves, so we take on a win there I guess. Or, if shedding is an issue we continue as we are for a long while still, i.e. no need to vaccinate as no need, and when it eases overseas and that starts to open up, we can quickly all get vaccinated with a better product?

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#2634770 13-Jan-2021 11:26

tdgeek:

Why are we delaying vaccinations? I thought early on we were partnering wth Australia.

No we're not partnering with Australia.

Early on CSL had a lot of hope for their UQ vaccine (University of Queensland) vaccine which they were expecting to supply to NZ. This vaccine then got pulled due to the HIV test false positive, which has possible meant NZ had to go to market to look at other options.

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#2634776 13-Jan-2021 11:43

sbiddle:

tdgeek:

Why are we delaying vaccinations? I thought early on we were partnering wth Australia.

No we're not partnering with Australia.

Early on CSL had a lot of hope for their UQ vaccine (University of Queensland) vaccine which they were expecting to supply to NZ. This vaccine then got pulled due to the HIV test false positive, which has possible meant NZ had to go to market to look at other options.

Thanks for that.

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#2634784 13-Jan-2021 12:18

Re the aussie vaccine situation, the big news story there today is that the cira 72% effecancy of the oxford vaccine (that aussie is producing under licence in near Melbourne) is not going to be sufficient to get herd immunity.

Seems the 90% effecancy of that vaccine with a half strength first dose had not been tested in enough people for the medical community to have confidence in that number.

Also not that re-vaccinating people with a different brand vaccine to get higher effecancy isn't recommended at the interaction of different brands of covid-19 vaccines is untested.

NZ' approach of ordering 15m people worth of vaccines from 4 different vendors and cherry picking the best one's is looking better than Aussies approach of doing the oxford vaccine alone.

That said, the downside of our approach is that we are not at the front if the queue and the first vaccines won't start showing up to March.

Personally given NZ is in less of a rush than the rest of the world, I think we should be targeting vaccines with effecancs of 94% +

tdgeek:
Good points. Economically it may suit us as well perhaps. We can accept incoming travellers with no MIQ if they are vaccinated (one day when the shedding is more well known) , and we still can't travel ourselves, so we take on a win there I guess. Or, if shedding is an issue we continue as we are for a long while still, i.e. no need to vaccinate as no need, and when it eases overseas and that starts to open up, we can quickly all get vaccinated with a better product?

At the moment no vaccine efficacy is greater than 95%. Would need 99.99% or so to replace MIQ without the NZ general population having a high rate of vaccination.

That said, if once vaccines are available globally to travelers (for a payment), we could well add having a vaccine certification to the requirement to get on a plane to NZ.

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#2634789 13-Jan-2021 12:28

Scott3: At the moment no vaccine efficacy is greater than 95%. Would need 99.99% or so to replace MIQ without the NZ general population having a high rate of vaccination.

That said, if once vaccines are available globally to travelers (for a payment), we could well add having a vaccine certification to the requirement to get on a plane to NZ.

Fair enough. So we wait for full vaccination here, thats ok. Starts March for vulnerable/MIQ staff? Then the rest of us from July I think I read?

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#2634790 13-Jan-2021 12:34

Scott3: Re the aussie vaccine situation, the big news story there today is that the cira 72% effecancy of the oxford vaccine (that aussie is producing under licence in near Melbourne) is not going to be sufficient to get herd immunity.

Seems the 90% effecancy of that vaccine with a half strength first dose had not been tested in enough people for the medical community to have confidence in that number.

Also not that re-vaccinating people with a different brand vaccine to get higher effecancy isn't recommended at the interaction of different brands of covid-19 vaccines is untested.

NZ' approach of ordering 15m people worth of vaccines from 4 different vendors and cherry picking the best one's is looking better than Aussies approach of doing the oxford vaccine alone.

That said, the downside of our approach is that we are not at the front if the queue and the first vaccines won't start showing up to March.

Australia have a pretty identical approach to NZ...

They have 10 million ( 5 million people- 20% population) doses of the Pfizer vaccine,

NZ has 1.5 million (750K ~15% population )

Australia also have ~50 million doses of the Novavax vaccine, (NZ also has a similar reservation of 10 million, but NZ notes its unlikely to be available until late 2021)

NZ and Aust have Astra Zeneca reservations , but NZ also has a reservation for 5 million single dose Janssen ( J&J) vaccines, and I suspect we are hoping this passes muster (results due end of January) ... to give us a choice between the Astra and Janssen ( both single shot )

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#2634828 13-Jan-2021 13:39

From guardian Live feed (it can't link) coronavac by Chinese SinoVac 50% effective in real world Brazil

Would be good to know other real world data with the others

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#2634839 13-Jan-2021 13:59

Batman: From guardian Live feed (it can't link) coronavac by Chinese SinoVac 50% effective in real world Brazil

Would be good to know other real world data with the others

It would be, it won't be near efficacy

Efficacy is test conditions

Effective is real world.

Hard to know. But if you still got infected and it was much less severe then thats a win.

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#2634840 13-Jan-2021 13:59

Scott3: Re the aussie vaccine situation, the big news story there today is that the cira 72% effecancy of the oxford vaccine (that aussie is producing under licence in near Melbourne) is not going to be sufficient to get herd immunity.

Why?

I understood that other vaccines (e.g. flu) have efficacies around 40-50% and they are perfectly acceptable. That, prior to the covid vaccines, efficacy of 75% would have been considered exceptionally good.

Surely herd immunity from a 72% vaccine is just a matter of inoculating a bigger percentage of the population than for a 95% vaccine?

Given that the efficacy is calculated by numbers in the trial infected with vaccine & with placebo, and these numbers are very small, the difference between 72% and and 94% may be a single person, essentially a rounding error.

wellygary

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#2634854 13-Jan-2021 14:24

Batman: From guardian Live feed (it can't link) coronavac by Chinese SinoVac 50% effective in real world Brazil

Would be good to know other real world data with the others

The SinoVac rates are all over the show, but also show really small sample sized testing ( you have got to wonder why these counties even bothered as they would be no where near representative)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/china-vaccine-going-global-with-four-different-efficacy-rates

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