2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2658089 17-Feb-2021 10:08

sbiddle:

Oblivian:

For something that has been identified overseas as more contagious.

This is the 3rd? 'Seemingly' early stage dodged bullet. I think we all need lottery tickets.

I'm not quite sure how we're getting away with it. Let alone getting it appear out of the blue randomly when pointers are at the student with earlier onset/stages.

Isn't it the 4th? 3 different cases of ex Pullman guests and remember we had the B1.1.7 case of the nurse in Christchurch in November as well.

If we are lucky again and this hasn't spread we're really playing Russian roulette here, and on the 6th go you always die! 😂

Prof Nick Wilson, Dr Leah Grout, Prof Michael Baker, have a blog of all the MIQ failures...

It concludes that since July 2020, NZ has had at least 10 border control failures (9 via MIQ facilities and one via a port), and at least 5 “internal MIQ facility failures” involving spread between returnees.

https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/how-best-to-classify-and-count-nzs-border-control-failures-in-the-covid-19-pandemic/

frankv

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#2658124 17-Feb-2021 11:29

Fred99:

The virus will survive longer in cooler conditions, and people spend much more time indoors (with windows closed etc) in winter.

Right... except that indoors, where people are, it isn't actually much cooler. E.g. in northern Europe where central heating is the norm, winter indoors temperatures are up in the T-shirt and shorts region. Swimming at the pool (indoors, of course, and double-glazed) with snow blowing against the windows (and hair driers in the changing rooms).

Fred99

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#2658145 17-Feb-2021 12:09

Two new community cases detected - Papatoetoe High School students.

vexxxboy

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#2658149 17-Feb-2021 12:11

Fred99:

Two new community cases detected - Papatoetoe High School students.

enjoy your weekend at level 3 Auckland

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Oblivian

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#2658155 17-Feb-2021 12:19

Well, the net just grew a whole lot.

Now that student (and sibling) will need full tracing

And here's hoping they didn't go all all first day back at school hug fest.

ezbee

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#2658156 17-Feb-2021 12:20

Auckland is the worlds most live able city afterall.

Hopefully we have still got onto this relatively early, and its not as bad as Americold.

Supermarket shop yesterday was calm and no queue or empty shelves I saw in my part of south Auckland.

So looks like people are taking it stoically and calmly.

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#2658160 17-Feb-2021 12:23

My FIL reported that whilst out bike riding yesterday, he went past takeaways, cafes, petrol stations and parks, not one person had a mask on, people were lined up much closer than 2m and conversing for prolonged periods. Traffic was stupidly busy.

It's no surprise that less and less people are complying with lockdown requirements.

Oblivian

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#2658243 17-Feb-2021 13:34

So we have A B C. A being possible first showing (still unclear of A/B egg/chicken race?)

And now D and E

The big question. Will be whether it was D->A/E. Or A->B->D/C->E

And if the former. There will be even more of a scramble to find links. (but may also explain no direct A/B link to MiQ if it is a few legs down by then)

duckDecoy

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#2658248 17-Feb-2021 13:39

Oblivian:

So we have A B C. A being possible first showing (still unclear of A/B egg/chicken race?)

And now D and E

The big question. Will be whether it was D->A/E. Or A->B->D/C->E

And if the former. There will be even more of a scramble to find links. (but may also explain no direct A/B link to MiQ if it is a few legs down by then)

How many jumps does it take to be considered unrelated to someone in MIQ?

wellygary

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#2658252 17-Feb-2021 13:46

Oblivian:

The big question. Will be whether it was D->A/E. Or A->B->D/C->E

And if the former. There will be even more of a scramble to find links. (but may also explain no direct A/B link to MiQ if it is a few legs down by then)

CT counts and the timing of any symptom can be useful in determining that... also following up with D/E's close contacts to see if any of those have links to borders or other potential infection sources,

What is interesting is that the are saying that E ( the casual+ student) caught it from D (the close contact student) , not both directly from A.. This indicates there is some difference in onsets or CT values....

BUT there are still around 400 student results to come back... (also it might have been useful to blood test all the students to see if their were any recovered cases that may have been quietly spreading in the school over the past week(s) l!!... not sure if this was done or not)

cddt

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#2658270 17-Feb-2021 14:09

frankv:

I wonder why the people felt the need to hide their identity. It's an airborne virus that anyone in a public place could have caught. These people were just unlucky. It's not like they caught syphilis.

Am I missing something? Were they up to something adulterous at the Holiday Inn?

Remember what happened to the family in the August outbreak. Someone online alleged that the teenage daughter had snuck into MIQ to shag her deportee gang member boyfriend. Absolutely nothing of the sort happened, but the family was hounded mercilessly on social media nonetheless.

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#2658321 17-Feb-2021 14:33

wellygary:

Oblivian:

The big question. Will be whether it was D->A/E. Or A->B->D/C->E

And if the former. There will be even more of a scramble to find links. (but may also explain no direct A/B link to MiQ if it is a few legs down by then)

CT counts and the timing of any symptom can be useful in determining that... also following up with D/E's close contacts to see if any of those have links to borders or other potential infection sources,

What is interesting is that the are saying that E ( the casual+ student) caught it from D (the close contact student) , not both directly from A.. This indicates there is some difference in onsets or CT values....

BUT there are still around 400 student results to come back... (also it might have been useful to blood test all the students to see if their were any recovered cases that may have been quietly spreading in the school over the past week(s) l!!... not sure if this was done or not)

School only went back last week.

Would have been much better if this outbreak had occurred the week before :)

gzt

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#2658329 17-Feb-2021 14:39

clinty: Interestingly - if we start our roll out on Saturday as planned, we will actually beat Australia to the punch on starting vaccinations. And we have a better per capita quantity to kick off with

Less community infection. For various frontlines it makes sense. On a population basis we probably don't need to at this time. Having said that, I'll certainly be interested in getting one as an average Joe as soon as it's available.

gzt

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#2658330 17-Feb-2021 14:42

kobiak:I don't understand why it takes so long to test 42 people. They identified who they are, get the swap, blood sample, ect. Process as first priority and results within few hours. why it takes ages?

I expect there's some kind of 80/20 rule in action.Must be there's always a few that are hard to line up for one perfectly normal reason or another..

mattwnz

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#2658333 17-Feb-2021 14:45

Are schools still open in level 3 in Auckland?. Very surprising if they are, especially considering the history of schools being cluster areas in NZ. I think they have closed schools in the UK during their very long lockdown, which is more similar to our level 3 lockdown.

What's the odds of coming out of lockdown after 3 days now? 0 ? . I see they are now looking at compulsory scanning at long last. Talk about closing the barn door after the horse has already bolted.

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