2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2658421 17-Feb-2021 14:52

freitasm: And so it begins: "Batch of homegrown coronavirus mutations seen in US"

This is the worst thing about areas where it's been getting around. Imo there's a good case for directing resources at breaking some chains in these areas. A good case for prioritising modelling and vaccine for that purpose. Mutation is really really bad.

SJB

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#2658473 17-Feb-2021 15:14

gzt:
freitasm: And so it begins: "Batch of homegrown coronavirus mutations seen in US"

This is the worst thing about areas where it's been getting around. Imo there's a good case for directing resources at breaking some chains in these areas. A good case for prioritising modelling and vaccine for that purpose. Mutation is really really bad.

That's not going to happen in the good ol' US of A.

If it's not big enough to shoot, the're not interested.

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#2658478 17-Feb-2021 15:20

mattwnz: Are schools still open in level 3 in Auckland?. Very surprising if they are, especially considering the history of schools being cluster areas in NZ. I think they have closed schools in the UK during their very long lockdown, which is more similar to our level 3 lockdown.

What's the odds of coming out of lockdown after 3 days now? 0 ? . I see they are now looking at compulsory scanning at long last. Talk about closing the barn door after the horse has already bolted.

Schools are currently only open for children of essential workers during level 3 here in Auckland.

If you can't laugh at yourself then you probably shouldn't laugh at others.

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#2658488 17-Feb-2021 15:57

trig42:

School only went back last week.

Would have been much better if this outbreak had occurred the week before :)

What is worrying is this

From the original comments when the outbreak was announced on the 14th

"The daughter, a student at Papatoetoe High School, was last at school on February 10."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300229761/covid19-papatoetoe-high-school-identifies-close-contacts-of-student-community-case

Which means we have had 7 days (minimum) since the first of out new cases could have caught it, assuming they became infectious 3-5 days after this, it means they could start infecting others from Sunday.... (although they may have been isolating since then as they were identified as a close contact).... but if they were infected before the 10th they could have been infectious at the end of last week...

Far to many questions to let alert levels in Auckland fall... I think...

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#2658490 17-Feb-2021 16:10

Meanwhile Victoria lockdown ends. People can go watch tennis

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300232747/covid19-victorias-fiveday-lockdown-to-end-wednesday-evening-premier-announces

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#2658533 17-Feb-2021 16:16

I hope we will be down to level 2.5 for a week or two with (because all close contacts been identified and notified, these people can self isolate):

- mandatory masks out in public
- restaurants/bars/cafes numbers down to 100 and everyone must be seated
- shops open for limited numbers of people
- all public gatherings up to 50 people
- work from home if you can
- travel is region restricted only

helping others at evgenyk.nz

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#2658534 17-Feb-2021 16:19

Also:

It appears the Media have taken editorial decisions on what the outcome of todays announcement will be and are cutting comments to fit- both are post the 2 cases this morning..

Form the Herald

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-govt-can-still-consider-lifting-lockdown-expert/Y64G3QCK73REHQXE2Z24JHFRQM/

"Covid 19: Govt can still consider lifting lockdown - expert"

"A prominent epidemiologist thinks Cabinet ministers can still consider moving Auckland to alert level "2.5", despite the two further community cases confirmed today.

But Professor Michael Baker, of Otago University, added that depended on whether those new cases definitely were a result of the original three - and whether an indoor mandatory masking could be required.

From Stuff

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-govt-can-still-consider-lifting-lockdown-expert/Y64G3QCK73REHQXE2Z24JHFRQM/

"Covid-19: New Papatoetoe High cases could point to alert level 3 extension - experts"

"Given the recent development, Baker said it would be “pretty tough” to make a change to the alert level on Wednesday.

“I would’ve thought this would be tipping decision-making towards a more cautious approach.”

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#2658535 17-Feb-2021 16:21

We'll find out in 9 mins

Fred99

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#2658538 17-Feb-2021 16:31

wellygary:

What is worrying is this

From the original comments when the outbreak was announced on the 14th

"The daughter, a student at Papatoetoe High School, was last at school on February 10."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300229761/covid19-papatoetoe-high-school-identifies-close-contacts-of-student-community-case

Which means we have had 7 days (minimum) since the first of out new cases could have caught it, assuming they became infectious 3-5 days after this, it means they could start infecting others from Sunday.... (although they may have been isolating since then as they were identified as a close contact).... but if they were infected before the 10th they could have been infectious at the end of last week...

Far to many questions to let alert levels in Auckland fall... I think...

The added worry is that according to the report on Sunday, the girl became symptomatic at the same time as the mother. That doesn't tie in with the theory the mother contracted it at work and passed it on to the daughter - though there's variability in incubation period, so it doesn't totally exclude that possibility either.

Oh well - maybe there will be some answers soon.

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#2658555 17-Feb-2021 17:13

A bit surprised that the levels have been dropped to level 2, instead of a 2.5 with indoor masking. Then they also have the wage subsidy coming in. IMO the problem is the cases that haven't been found or tested, especially as testing isn't all that accurate. This is a more infectious version and they don't know the source so would have thought they may have given it a couple more days to see what other cases pop up in the community.

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#2658633 17-Feb-2021 18:15

Batman: Meanwhile Victoria lockdown ends. People can go watch tennis

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300232747/covid19-victorias-fiveday-lockdown-to-end-wednesday-evening-premier-announces

4th and 7th men seeds on now, nobody there

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tdgeek

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#2658634 17-Feb-2021 18:18

wellygary:

Also:

It appears the Media have taken editorial decisions on what the outcome of todays announcement will be and are cutting comments to fit- both are post the 2 cases this morning..

Form the Herald

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-govt-can-still-consider-lifting-lockdown-expert/Y64G3QCK73REHQXE2Z24JHFRQM/

"Covid 19: Govt can still consider lifting lockdown - expert"

"A prominent epidemiologist thinks Cabinet ministers can still consider moving Auckland to alert level "2.5", despite the two further community cases confirmed today.

But Professor Michael Baker, of Otago University, added that depended on whether those new cases definitely were a result of the original three - and whether an indoor mandatory masking could be required.

From Stuff

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-govt-can-still-consider-lifting-lockdown-expert/Y64G3QCK73REHQXE2Z24JHFRQM/

"Covid-19: New Papatoetoe High cases could point to alert level 3 extension - experts"

"Given the recent development, Baker said it would be “pretty tough” to make a change to the alert level on Wednesday.

“I would’ve thought this would be tipping decision-making towards a more cautious approach.”

Experts are great, motivated by headlines and what if's. Id prefer a real expert.

Like when we went to lockdown, some experts said its too much and too long after two weeks. Thank goodness we went for real experts.

tdgeek

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#2658636 17-Feb-2021 18:25

mattwnz:

A bit surprised that the levels have been dropped to level 2, instead of a 2.5 with indoor masking. Then they also have the wage subsidy coming in. IMO the problem is the cases that haven't been found or tested, especially as testing isn't all that accurate. This is a more infectious version and they don't know the source so would have thought they may have given it a couple more days to see what other cases pop up in the community.

Do you really think 48 hours will solve the mystery? It would certainly add more info, no doubt. I would have given it another week, but the same issue applies, unhappiness. Its not fair its too long I want my business. The problem with all this is its the science vs peoples unhappiness, = votes. While the narrative is blame blame blame, there is no real and active addressing of it. Lockdown isn't fair what did you do wrong, etc, etc. So, IMHO we are trying to work with the science, but also trying not to rattle too many cages. But Im glad we didn't do that in March

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#2658651 17-Feb-2021 19:49

They are going to make masks compulsory on public transport at level 1 for all of NZ.

It therefore follows that they should be compulsory in a church, mall, bar, restaurant also.

Of course, you can't drink or eat if have a mask on, but those places have more spread than a bus in NZ.

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#2658755 17-Feb-2021 22:39

mask in a bar lol

better evolve to get drunk by osmosis

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