2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2694026 16-Apr-2021 22:06

DS248:

Slow AU & NZ (& other SE Asian) covid vaccine rollouts now being discussed in international press (well, CNN anyway)

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/15/asia/new-zealand-australia-covid-vaccine-intl-dst-hnk/index.html

(Article authored ex NZ journalist based in HK)

Worth a read, but not sure I agree with the overall feel of the article.

Firstly I think that NZ should have gone much faster with our getting our first few shipments of vaccines into border worker's, their families, and other frountliners (i.e. medical) arm's. Having 300k doses in the freezers and still not having done all the border worked is a huge failing in my eyes. Massive appeal to having front liners vaccinated asap.

Beyond that the pace or our roll out isn't really a huge deal. Until we have a decent chunk (50%+) of our population vaccinated we will still need to deal with outbreaks with fairly harsh lock-downs, and these will prevent excessive community harm.

In that light the only goal is getting herd immunity so we can re-open our borders. Sure we could have had a greater percentage of our population vaccinated if we had accepted out AZ covax vaccine shipments, but it dosn't really matter. The higher effectiveness of the pfizer jab means we have a lower threshold of the population vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity, and the single brand simplifies messaging.

Once Pfizer starts delivering on our second order (and we move beyond getting 60k doses a week), and we start putting the doses in the hands of GP's and pharmacies (in addition to vaccination centers and workplace vaccination setups) I think we will cut through willing population in 4-5 months.

Lets face it, we (despite a politicians promise) were never going to be first. Unlike most of the world we arn't desperate for doses (and hence willing to pay super high prices, or turn our country into a science experiment). We can hibernate down here with closed borders for an extended length of time. We are not feeling the heath, economic and unemployment pain of much of the world.

Actually quite a luxury to be able to wait for the the best available vaccine (pfizer), rather than needing to panic vaccinate with whatever is available.

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#2694032 16-Apr-2021 22:15

Batman:

and using ?? chinese vaccine doesn't seem to do much to the covid situation in Chile

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56731801

Interesting

"It suggested CoronaVac was 56.5% effective in protecting people against infection two weeks after they had received their second dose, but the figure was only 3% in the timespan between the first and second doses."

Bulk of the vaccinations are CoronaVac. 12m doses total, or which about 5m are 2nd doses. Population 19m. If we assume first doses are useless, then only 25% of the population is fully vacinated, and only 12.5% of the population is protected. Given the R0 of covid-19 is well higher than 2, it is not a surprise that this level of vaccination isn't changing the game.

shk292

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#2694067 17-Apr-2021 08:36

A worrying headline in the Telegraph today - have to hope that we're not contemplating resuming travel from India any time soon:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/pandoras-box-disaster-open-doctors-reveal-horror-indias-double/

tdgeek

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#2694074 17-Apr-2021 08:58

shk292:

A worrying headline in the Telegraph today - have to hope that we're not contemplating resuming travel from India any time soon:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/pandoras-box-disaster-open-doctors-reveal-horror-indias-double/

Im not sure how many want to come back here, but maybe ensure they are vaccinated first, and have a flight every 20 days, and they go to one facility?

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#2694080 17-Apr-2021 10:06

Jase2985:

most if not all those personnel have been in Canada since January some time.

Ill ask you this, would you go away from your family for over a year with little to no chance of coming back to see them? or if you could take them with you would you?

I suspect these billets would have been very hard to fill if they had been 'unaccompanied postings'

Most of the people will be junior-ish engineering officers and fairly senior technical NCOs and they are going to Esquimalt for an extended period, probably 12 to 18 months. This is not an operational posting, so there's no cash bonanza of hazard pay allowances, and these people will be professionally out of circulation while they're away.
With the kind of people we're talking about, a large proportion will probably have partners and ~~ankle-biters~~ little darlings. Oh, and strangely enough, the NZDF these days cares about and wants its people to be happy in their work and non-work lives to the degree that the NZDF can do that.
So, accompanied postings it is: take your family with you, have a great time in BC and possibly further afield if you can wangle long weekends and/or actual leave.

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#2694082 17-Apr-2021 10:15

Interesting article in Australian media - that could 100% describe NZ if we just changed the names.

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/when-will-borders-open-why-australia-needs-to-set-out-its-covid-endgame-20210414-p57j0w.html

At least Australia have started the discussions around endemic Covid this week. NZ seems to just want to ignore the issue and not even talk about it.

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#2694084 17-Apr-2021 10:24

shk292:
A worrying headline in the Telegraph today - have to hope that we're not contemplating resuming travel from India any time soon:

Browsing a prominent twitter yesterday, they are shrouded in smoke and smog again..

From all the open air cremations! Proper burial's can't keep up. So families are going to sacred grounds and just burning them. The solution? Bar the viewing points up with high fences so noone works it out.

And rows of ambulance outside hospital as no beds for those laying in the backs.

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#2694136 17-Apr-2021 10:56

sbiddle:

Interesting article in Australian media - that could 100% describe NZ if we just changed the names.

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/when-will-borders-open-why-australia-needs-to-set-out-its-covid-endgame-20210414-p57j0w.html

At least Australia have started the discussions around endemic Covid this week. NZ seems to just want to ignore the issue and not even talk about it.

NZ and Australia have the advantage that we can see what happens with exit plans in countries nearing peak vaccination rate etc - before we have to commit.

This has been an ongoing situation, certain political and business interest groups demanding the government commit to a timeline, when to commit to something which may need to be abandoned is a very bad idea.

Seen it many times with the usual culprits demanding that government here commit to firm dates to end lockdowns, adjust alert levels etc. We'll see it again in a week of so when the India travel ban may not be removed - or not without other "draconian" measures to keep the disease out. "But she said it was temporary and would be lifted in 14 days or whatever" will be in the news. She didn't say that.

There are 1001 possible different scenarios for where we'll be by the end of the year. If you think otherwise, tell us exactly what you think the situation will be, I'll bookmark the post and see how we're going when the time comes.

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#2694261 17-Apr-2021 17:04

I was talking to a friend in the UK yesterday who said “You’ll have problems when you return to normal.”

I replied “You assume we will. There’s absolutely no guarantee that what normal is from now on is the same as what normal was before.”

freitasm

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#2694272 17-Apr-2021 18:04

Geektastic: I was talking to a friend in the UK yesterday who said “You’ll have problems when you return to normal.”

I replied “You assume we will. There’s absolutely no guarantee that what normal is from now on is the same as what normal was before.”

Also your friend is assuming we are living like they are in the UK. It's very different here.

gzt

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#2694291 17-Apr-2021 20:07

Scott3

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#2694366 18-Apr-2021 10:54

The above is a great video for the context of a covid-19 hotspot like the USA, where they primarly goal of the vaccine is to protect the recipient from hospitalization or death.

In NZ & Australia however the goal is to get herd immunity to we can re-open international travel without concern of any outbreaks spreading widely within our community. Hence using vaccinated people as essentially a shield to protect those who can't be vaccinated (Children, immune compromised etc). The ability to stop transmission is not tested in trails, but it is a reasonable assumption that the 67% number for AZ will be a lower bound. (Logically somebody who carries the virus could potentially spread it, but the vaccine could reduce, perhaps dramatically the rate of spread).

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#2694375 18-Apr-2021 11:51

freitasm:
Geektastic: I was talking to a friend in the UK yesterday who said “You’ll have problems when you return to normal.”

I replied “You assume we will. There’s absolutely no guarantee that what normal is from now on is the same as what normal was before.”

Also your friend is assuming we are living like they are in the UK. It's very different here.

I've given up talking to most of my UK friends. They've been pumped full of so much rubbish by their media they just can't understand when I say we've (as in our town) had one 4 week lockdown and been BAU ever since.

It's almost become nasty with a couple of them they are that miserable. One even told me NZ wasn't part of the "developed world" last week. He got an absolute mouthful from me I can tell you.

gzt

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#2694379 18-Apr-2021 12:21

That's not what the video is about. Here's one from November on the same topic:of efficacy in vaccine context:

sbiddle

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#2694381 18-Apr-2021 12:52

martyyn:
I've given up talking to most of my UK friends. They've been pumped full of so much rubbish by their media they just can't understand when I say we've (as in our town) had one 4 week lockdown and been BAU ever since.

It's almost become nasty with a couple of them they are that miserable. One even told me NZ wasn't part of the "developed world" last week. He got an absolute mouthful from me I can tell you.

The simple fact is we haven't just had "one 4 week lockdown and been BAU ever since". That is simply a blatantly untrue statement, and life and business in NZ has simply not been BAU for many people in NZ.

Trashing people from the UK or US does no good. Most of us have zero idea what they've been through, and the mental health issues that are going to be around for years to come as a result of what has happened. These people just want normality.

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