2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2712976 25-May-2021 19:40

sbiddle:

The risk right now to Australia and New Zealand is probably the highest it has ever been.

We're two countries with very low levels of vaccination who have had multiple border breaches and live in hope that another one won't happen because we both can't seem to keep winning at Russian roulette when it comes to these highly infectious variants.

And people have been flying into NZ every day since CT was found. They should have paused it to ascertain if it was an outbreak, or a leak that they found easy to contain. If we get anyone in, it's a known risk we are happy to take, apparently.

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#2712981 25-May-2021 19:52

tdgeek:

Oblivian: And then there were 9

https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-melbourne-braces-for-more-covid-19-cases-after-outbreak-in-northern-suburbs-pressure-mounts-on-nsw-labor-leader-20210524-p57upg.html

Family. And now have a lot more tracing legs to follow

When there's 1 there's 3....

And counting. Bubble suspended briefly but the possible entry via the bubble into NZ could already have happened. Whatever is in the wild in Victoria has been doing the rounds for days already.

I still don't understand why NZ is so anti saliva and rapid tests. Yes there are debate around some rapid tests, but in this scenario forcing people to have a nasopharyngeal swab is cruel, but I'm sure you'd get pretty good compliance if you got everybody coming off the plane to spit in a sample tube, or give them 2 x rapid tests to do at home over the next few days.

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#2712983 25-May-2021 20:05

Oblivian:

Indian.

At least no5 is.

https://7news.com.au/news/melbourne/victorias-fifth-whittlesea-covid-case-revealed-by-states-chief-health-officer-to-be-indian-variant--c-2926219

I wonder if it's B1617."1" "2" or "3".

"2" seems to be the main concern. They are "guessing" in many ways about the features including about how transmissible it is. They can theorise based on how the mutations helps the virus bind, by looking at how one strain overtakes another where C19 is established, the viral load and shedding of infected patients etc. Nothing quite like having it let loose in a mainly naive population like Aus/NZ to figure out what the real R0 here would be. It bothers me that anecdotal reports from India are frightening, official reports scarce, and outbreaks are happening in places that were successful dealing with C-19 - until now.

I agree with @sbiddle - that we're at the greatest risk now (possible exception - the days before our first lockdown).

Air travel should be stopped immediately from any area in either country when there's any CT case found, until clear transmission route from the border is established. But that's just my opinion.

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#2712989 25-May-2021 20:50

Australia could have GPs and Pharmacists vaccinating people, from sydney morning herald

Pfizer could be administered by GPs after crucial TGA decision

Millions of Australians could receive their Pfizer shots in GPs, pharmacies and Commonwealth run respiratory clinics after a crucial decision by the Therapeutic Goods Administration to allow the vaccine to be stored in regular refrigerators for up to a month.

Previously the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine needed to be stored at temperatures of -70 degrees, limiting its distribution to vaccination hubs with special cold storage facilities.

But health journalists Lucy Carroll and Mary Ward report that it can now be kept for up to 31 days at between 2-8°C, after being taken out of deep-freeze conditions.

Melburnians line up for their COVID-19 vaccinations on Tuesday, as the city’s cluster grew to nine.CREDIT:WAYNE TAYLOR

Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said the TGA’s ruling last night regarding Pfizer being stored at refrigerator levels was an “important development”.

“That will open up general practice and pharmacy options with Pfizer,” he said. “We will be able to have a dual track program of our general practices and community pharmacies.”

Scott3

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#2713002 25-May-2021 22:13

Batman:

Australia could have GPs and Pharmacists vaccinating people, from sydney morning herald

Should note that NZ started using (very limited numbers) of GP clinics to deliver the pfizer vaccine on the 11th of May.

This predates the cira 20th of may announcement by pfizer of increased shelf life.

5 days shelf life is workable for GP clinics. There are multiple vaccine distribution hubs set up accross the country, so no need to worry about island crossing etc. Such a timeline could be used - 5pm sunday - pack doses into chilly bins for midnight dispatch. - 12pm courier pick up, with delivery expected between 7am and noon on monday. Commence vaccination appointments at noon, and make sure you run out of doses before 5pm friday when they need to be thrown away....

That said, a 30 day shelf life will make logistics massively cheaper and easier. If clinics have cold chain fridge space they could potentially order 3 weeks of doses at at time, saving number of shipments. Also day of shipment would not be critical, so shipments could be spread over the working week, spreading the delivery workload. Also means that clinics will be able to rotate stock, and never run our, so no need to have wait-lists, or people that miss out on friday afternoon, and less risk of wasted doses. Running weekend special clinics will be much easier to do too.

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#2713081 26-May-2021 07:24

Scott3:

Batman:

Australia could have GPs and Pharmacists vaccinating people, from sydney morning herald

Should note that NZ started using (very limited numbers) of GP clinics to deliver the pfizer vaccine on the 11th of May.

This predates the cira 20th of may announcement by pfizer of increased shelf life.

Australia are facing truly massive problems with their rollout, with the biggest issue right now being that quite simply nobody over 50 wants to be vaccinated due to the hugely successful campaign by their mainstream media which has convinced these people the vaccine is useless, and that they'll all get blood clots and die if they get it.

The result is that there are vaccination centres with nobody at them as the over 50's are all hanging out in hope that they'll be able to get the Pfizer vaccine at some point.

They're going to need every person in Australia capable of giving vaccines to be on board later in the year if they still want to roll out the Pfizer vaccine in a reasonable time frame once they start receiving large quantities of it.

IMHO GP's surgeries are not the ideal place to be used for mass vaccinations. It's clear it would be convenient for some people to get a jab while visiting for a regular appointment, but primary care locations such as doctors surgeries should kept for primary care. It makes a lot more sense to use dedicated pop up facilities which can be dedicated to this and typically have a lot more space to handle the full end to end process. The other aspect is that you run the very real risk of people simply booking out appointments for weeks ahead solely to get a jab because this may well exist as a loophole to get early access to the vaccine before people are called up, meaning others seeking appointments lose out.

I was very impressed at how well the centre in Wellington where I got my jab was set up. There was plenty of space for staff and vaccinators to work, and space for dedicated waiting areas before the jab, and importantly for waiting afterwards. I just can't see most pharmacies and GP surgeries being able to offer the same experience.

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#2713082 26-May-2021 07:32

Fred99:

Oblivian:

Indian.

At least no5 is.

https://7news.com.au/news/melbourne/victorias-fifth-whittlesea-covid-case-revealed-by-states-chief-health-officer-to-be-indian-variant--c-2926219

I wonder if it's B1617."1" "2" or "3".

"2" seems to be the main concern. They are "guessing" in many ways about the features including about how transmissible it is. They can theorise based on how the mutations helps the virus bind, by looking at how one strain overtakes another where C19 is established, the viral load and shedding of infected patients etc. Nothing quite like having it let loose in a mainly naive population like Aus/NZ to figure out what the real R0 here would be. It bothers me that anecdotal reports from India are frightening, official reports scarce, and outbreaks are happening in places that were successful dealing with C-19 - until now.

I agree with @sbiddle - that we're at the greatest risk now (possible exception - the days before our first lockdown).

Air travel should be stopped immediately from any area in either country when there's any CT case found, until clear transmission route from the border is established. But that's just my opinion.

It's very interesting to see a few media stories this morning featuring the usual crowd of epidemiologists and public health experts warning of the increased risks to NZ. As much as I don't want breakouts here or even worse lock downs, anybody who right now isn't prepared for this to occur really should be preparing for it. If you don't have at least 3 months supply of toilet paper at home you should be buying that now because we all know it'll be the first thing to get wiped out again should something like this happen!

I'm lucky that I needed to be vaccinated for work, but I can see a lot of people becoming really anxious going forward over the slow rollout here.

Pauses of the bubble are something we're just going to have to get used to because the simply reality is we're going to get more cases in both countries.

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clinty

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#2713083 26-May-2021 07:55

So Covid went to an AFL game :(

Positive case game at MCG

Will be interesting to see if any positive tests come out of that - may provide some more statistical data around transmission etc

Lots of CCTV for tracing their movements - Did it spread up and around the bay they were in, across the field etc. SImilar to the analysis of plane infections earlier in the pandemic

Clint

Edit: Expanded my reply

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#2713085 26-May-2021 08:14

clinty:

So Covid went to an AFL game :(

Positive case game at MCG

Will be interesting to see if any positive tests come out of that - may provide some more statistical data around transmission etc

Lots of CCTV for tracing their movements - Did it spread up and around the bay they were in, across the field etc. SImilar to the analysis of plane infections earlier in the pandemic

Clint

Edit: Expanded my reply

But the risks of spread in outdoor environments is is very different to indoors and certainly can't be compared to a plane in any way. This will certainly be a way of proving is this is correct.

This case is a lot more concerning than previous ones because pretty much every other recent border case has not even infected family members, whereas in this case we've seen what appears to be all immediate family members testing positive.

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#2713091 26-May-2021 08:53

Of course there will be a good risk but only to those in close proximity. Virus doesn't care if its indoors or outdoors. If there are enough virus particles eg explosive cough, wipe nose with back of hand etc virus will jump. But not to the whole stadium just the guy next to him

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#2713093 26-May-2021 08:54

On Newsroom today : Covid-19 Surges in Taiwan, Vietnam, Fiji - Could NZ Be Next?

tdgeek

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#2713095 26-May-2021 09:09

alasta:

On Newsroom today : Covid-19 Surges in Taiwan, Vietnam, Fiji - Could NZ Be Next?

Only if you let it in. MIQ leaks can always happen but from well over 100,000 returnees, its very low risk. The Victoria outbreak, is a source, depends how long the cases have been in the wold before they were known about, and therefore how much they have spread before we knew about it, and how many potential infectees dont bother about isolating, and obviously how many incoming travellers were exposed. Health NZ has taken that as low rosk dont worry about it when CT was found, and later, paused the bubble. So, we can easily have an outbreak, a surge would depend how we react to restrictions

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#2713096 26-May-2021 09:11

alasta:

On Newsroom today : Covid-19 Surges in Taiwan, Vietnam, Fiji - Could NZ Be Next?

"University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker says the answer is yes... and also no."

Betteridge's Law of Headlines: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

wellygary

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#2713105 26-May-2021 09:52

This will likely blow up into a story today, its currently paywalled on Newsroom... but I guess we now know what the delivery schedule is ....

"Pages from the Ministry of Health and the Unite Against Covid-19 websites were quietly changed over the weekend to say that Group 4 would have access to the vaccine "from the end of July". Previously, the pages said Group 4 could be vaccinated "from July"."

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/pro/general-vaccine-rollout-now-slated-for-end-of-july

sbiddle

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#2713140 26-May-2021 11:35

What's concerning for me is the revelation there are people who have managed to transit Aussie on green flights.

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