2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2743595 13-Jul-2021 11:54

Fred99:

Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant yesterday said she was in "two minds" about whether today's numbers would be higher, but if they were, it didn't necessarily indicate the outbreak was worsening.

"The numbers are a bit variable because we have to interpret about whether we are getting to people early," she said.

If and when numbers start falling, then the choir starts singing the song "let's party again".

Dr Chand's comments were yesterday, the health minister's were this morning, and he will have seen the overnight test counts..

But again its not the headline number that is the issue, its the number of people that are active in the community

Having 4 other isolating household members get it a day after a primary case isn't a huge health problem....

Having unlinked people still wander round at the shops is...

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#2743597 13-Jul-2021 11:56

They will. How I see it is with such high numbers, they are just tests they aren't everyone that has been infected, and the lag. However, worse than that is non compliance there

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#2743598 13-Jul-2021 12:02

112

Half of these are hospitalised. Does that mean they never sauntered down for a test but got tested as part of the hosptilasation?

Other news, they want kids back in schools next Monday, good for the parents and economy

Another case in Victoria

Someone said its out of control, another says its under control

Live news from Sky news AU

Scott3

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#2743605 13-Jul-2021 12:21

tdgeek:

112

Half of these are hospitalised. Does that mean they never sauntered down for a test but got tested as part of the hosptilasation?

Other news, they want kids back in schools next Monday, good for the parents and economy

Another case in Victoria

Someone said its out of control, another says its under control

Live news from Sky news AU

Didn't watch the press conference, but I suspect a lot the hospitalization numbers are for people that tested positive on prior days.

But the bigger issue is that hosptilasation numbers are really high. This suggests that either the Delta strain is not only really contagious, but also really nasty. Or that there are a lot of undetected cases in the community, which as you suggest are getting picked up on hospital presentation.

Fred99

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#2743606 13-Jul-2021 12:24

tdgeek:

Half of these are hospitalised.

Nope. There were about 600 active cases and about 60 hospitalised. so about 10%.

A problem with that figure is that it usually takes a week or so after diagnosis before people get sick enough to need hospitalisation, so the actual % that will need hospital care can only be guessed, it'll also depend on age demographic of how it's spreading - a major outbreak in an area full of retired people or in an area full of young people will complicate things either way.

But if the number needing hospitalisation is close to the 10% figure, and the Delta variant gets out of hand, there's going to be a huge problem. There's something like 3 hospital beds available per 1,000 people in NZ, more than half are usually already occupied, very few are suitable for infection/isolation, the entire system will fail.

The only way to deal with any major outbreak in will be a strictly enforced level 4 lockdown, and with how Delta seems to be behaving in NSW, it'll need to be done instantly - far sooner than in the past.

wellygary

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#2743607 13-Jul-2021 12:25

112 is yesterday's number...( i.e up to 8pm on 11th July)

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/default.aspx

the NSW Presser is expected at 1pm NZ time

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tdgeek

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#2743608 13-Jul-2021 12:29

Fred99:

Nope. There were about 600 active cases and about 60 hospitalised. so about 10%.

A problem with that figure is that it usually takes a week or so after diagnosis before people get sick enough to need hospitalisation, so the actual % that will need hospital care can only be guessed, it'll also depend on age demographic of how it's spreading - a major outbreak in an area full of retired people or in an area full of young people will complicate things either way.

But if the number needing hospitalisation is close to the 10% figure, and the Delta variant gets out of hand, there's going to be a huge problem. There's something like 3 hospital beds available per 1,000 people in NZ, more than half are usually already occupied, very few are suitable for infection/isolation, the entire system will fail.

I was watching the news feed live, she said 112 new cases and half of these are hospatalised. Maybe she got her grammar wrong but that's what she said

Fred99

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#2743613 13-Jul-2021 12:34

tdgeek:

I was watching the news feed live, she said 112 new cases and half of these are hospatalised. Maybe she got her grammar wrong but that's what she said

Yep - probably meant to say something like "half had been isolating at home" or whatever.

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#2743615 13-Jul-2021 12:47

tdgeek:

I was watching the news feed live, she said 112 new cases and half of these are hospatalised. Maybe she got her grammar wrong but that's what she said

Sounds like you may have been watching yesterdays press conference.

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#2743616 13-Jul-2021 12:49

Fred99:

Nope. There were about 600 active cases and about 60 hospitalised. so about 10%.

Sorry, misread, she meant half of the 112, or thats how she worded it

tdgeek

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#2743619 13-Jul-2021 12:53

Scott3:

tdgeek:

I was watching the news feed live, she said 112 new cases and half of these are hospatalised. Maybe she got her grammar wrong but that's what she said

Sounds like you may have been watching yesterdays press conference.

It was a reporter, but yes, I can see now it wasnt live for today it was live, about or recorded yesterday. I checked the time, so it was live and I got sucked in!

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#2743621 13-Jul-2021 12:57

Scott3:

Have NZ based international air crew (and international sea crew) been picked up in the requirements somewhere?

Order is now out:

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2021/0182/latest/whole.html#LMS519348

"Aircrew members" are listed in schedule 2. Yay.

Sounds like a blanket coverage too. i.e. doesn't matter if you are crewing dream-liners to Aussie, airbuses Auckland to wellington, or Cessna Caravan's to great barrier island, you need to be vaccinated...

NZ based international ship crew don't seem explicit covered, but are likely captured by "All workers (other than excluded port persons) who board affected ships"

Employees in contact with people listed appears to have been softened a lot. You now need to both handle affected items, and have contact with workers while working. I think what was in the press release was unreasonably broad, and the actual order is better.

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#2743623 13-Jul-2021 12:59

Yeah, can't go slinging numbers until after 1pm, we both have them the same time each day

However testing stations do speak up independently. Over 40 in one of them last night will add to a reasonable total.

Edit. 89, 20+ community roaming. 3/4 family contacts of knowns.

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#2743625 13-Jul-2021 13:00

Technofreak:

openmedia:

You really would hope so, yet I'm hearing more people both here and in OZ going the other way and saying they definitely won't have any of the mRNA based vaccines.

What's their reasoning?

Combination of misinformation, and general concerns about new vaccines.

Key argument is the death toll in Australia is so low that taking the Vaccine poses a higher risk. Australia need to promote their very disturbing COVID video a lot more widely so people can understand the real risks.

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

Fred99

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#2743628 13-Jul-2021 13:09

So 89 new CT cases, majority close contacts. 21 infectious in the community.

Another death (man in 70s from E suburbs).

Confirmed that some of the cases in ICU are young and without underlying health conditions.

63 cases in hospital, 21 cases in ICU care, 4 on ventilators.

(had to edit that a couple of times)

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