2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Master Geek
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#2437793 13-Mar-2020 23:02

It would take 24 meetings to agree the schedule and agenda for the main meeting in that place!

i just don't know what are they waiting for, the number of cases is increasing day by day.

DS248

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#2437795 13-Mar-2020 23:36

tdgeek: ... If our cases of 5 went from 1 to 5 to 25 I'd be wanting more than you are. But ts 5, like it was a week ago. I have NO issue with harsh action. But to trash our economy when there is zero evidence isnt wise. ...

Unfortunately, not so reassuring.

Our first case was diagnosed on 28 Feb, just 2 weeks ago and went from 1 - 5 in a week, with none since. So yes, after two weeks, we have 5 (equates to 60 for a population the size of Italy though)

The first (two) cases in Italy were diagnosed on 31 Jan. Six days later a 3rd case, and then no more for another two weeks. So three weeks in Italy had just 3 cases, despite 12 times the population. Now a touch over 3 weeks later they have 15,000+ cases.

Other countries have experienced a similar trajectories: UK 8 after 3 weeks, now 590; Spain just 3 after 3.5 weeks, now 3,148; Sweden only 1 after 3.5 weeks, now 688; ... and so on. The numbers after 3 weeks might have been reassuring to them also? Yes, European countries that did not get their first case until more recently (say late Feb) have not had the same 3 weeks grace. Fairly inevitable given that they are in a free travel area with a population of 400 million where SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading.

A few jurisdictions did apply stringent measures from the start and have avoided exponential increases in cases, even up to 7 weeks in.

So five after two weeks is not reassuring, nor is the fact that we have had none in the last week.

Do we learn from others or be lulled into complacency and hold back on stringent measures until too late? Either way will involve pain but not necessarily in equal measures.

DS248

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#2437797 13-Mar-2020 23:47

Perhaps we should heed the collective wisdom passed down through the ages ... "a stitch in time saves nine".

Scott3

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#2437798 13-Mar-2020 23:49

mattwnz:

I see Italy now has 1000 deaths, But it says only 15,000 people are reported to have it. If following Chinas death rate, the number of actual people who have it could more than double that figure. Guessing a lot of people may not being tested, or wonder if there is another reason why their death rate percentage is a lot higher?

Few things to consider:

It is widely suspected that the numbers coming out of china weren't trustworthy. In the early days it was rumored that, even if covid-19 was strongly suspected, unless it had be conformed with a test (and some hospitals had zero test kits), the cause of death would be something else.
Italy has an older population, stats indicate that older people are hit harder by covid-19.
China had an epic response effort, they pulled 20,000 medical staff with relevant skills from other cities, and sent them (along with heavy medical equipment) from their provinces to Wuhan and the surrounding area. Basically no other country in the world has the resources to do this.
Once hospitals get overloaded, mortality rates skyrocket, as everybody that needs ICU care will likely die if they cannot get it. Mortality rates in the hardest hit area's (Wuhan & Italy) are way higher than everywhere else for this reason.
A high deaths to cases ratio can indicate that there are a lot of diagnosed mild cases. USA seems to be in this position now.

Batman

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#2437802 14-Mar-2020 00:07

china helping Italy & Iran

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3074682/china-sends-team-medical-experts-gear-help-italy-fight

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#2437805 14-Mar-2020 00:59

DS248:

tdgeek: ... If our cases of 5 went from 1 to 5 to 25 I'd be wanting more than you are. But ts 5, like it was a week ago. I have NO issue with harsh action. But to trash our economy when there is zero evidence isnt wise. ...

Unfortunately, not so reassuring.

Our first case was diagnosed on 28 Feb, just 2 weeks ago and went from 1 - 5 in a week, with none since. So yes, after two weeks, we have 5 (equates to 60 for a population the size of Italy though)

The first (two) cases in Italy were diagnosed on 31 Jan. Six days later a 3rd case, and then no more for another two weeks. So three weeks in Italy had just 3 cases, despite 12 times the population. Now a touch over 3 weeks later they have 15,000+ cases.

Other countries have experienced a similar trajectories: UK 8 after 3 weeks, now 590; Spain just 3 after 3.5 weeks, now 3,148; Sweden only 1 after 3.5 weeks, now 688; ... and so on. The numbers after 3 weeks might have been reassuring to them also? Yes, European countries that did not get their first case until more recently (say late Feb) have not had the same 3 weeks grace. Fairly inevitable given that they are in a free travel area with a population of 400 million where SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading.

A few jurisdictions did apply stringent measures from the start and have avoided exponential increases in cases, even up to 7 weeks in.

==

So five after two weeks is not reassuring, nor is the fact that we have had none in the last week.

Do we learn from others or be lulled into complacency and hold back on stringent measures until too late? Either way will involve pain but not necessarily in equal measures.

In the UK they have nearly 600 diagnosed cases, and 10 deaths. However they believe there are now 5,000 - 10,000 infected at this time, but not yet showing symptoms. So they have moved into the stage of delaying the spread. But they have warned that loved ones will die from this. My understanding is that the WHO wants countries to eliminate it, and not just try to slow down the spread. So the UK seem to be taking a different approach to Italy, who have basically made everyone self isolate themselves. The UK are still allowing schools to run etc, which I don't think is good. I also have concerns of Oz, as they seem to be in a similar situation.

Although NZ has officially had 5 confirmed cases, we don't know how many more currently infected at this time who have't been tested and not showing symptoms. 9000 or so are self isolated but we don't know if any of those are infected or not until they show symptoms, so it is a waiting game for them.

I fear that with no new official cases recently, it may lull some people into a false sense of security, and people may not be as careful as they should be in self isolating.

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Tinkerisk

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#2437806 14-Mar-2020 01:46

freitasm: Telstra announced all office employees to work from home starting this Monday.

The same here for HAPAG and SAP ... we got advise to follow on demand during the weekend as well. Got my Digital workplace at home (except flight operations 🤨).

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
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In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

lxsw20

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#2437807 14-Mar-2020 04:08

My UK office has just announced WFH starting Monday. I start a new job in 3 weeks, could be interesting!

tdgeek

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#2437819 14-Mar-2020 08:45

DS248:

Unfortunately, not so reassuring.

Our first case was diagnosed on 28 Feb, just 2 weeks ago and went from 1 - 5 in a week, with none since. So yes, after two weeks, we have 5 (equates to 60 for a population the size of Italy though)

The first (two) cases in Italy were diagnosed on 31 Jan. Six days later a 3rd case, and then no more for another two weeks. So three weeks in Italy had just 3 cases, despite 12 times the population. Now a touch over 3 weeks later they have 15,000+ cases.

Other countries have experienced a similar trajectories: UK 8 after 3 weeks, now 590; Spain just 3 after 3.5 weeks, now 3,148; Sweden only 1 after 3.5 weeks, now 688; ... and so on. The numbers after 3 weeks might have been reassuring to them also? Yes, European countries that did not get their first case until more recently (say late Feb) have not had the same 3 weeks grace. Fairly inevitable given that they are in a free travel area with a population of 400 million where SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading.

A few jurisdictions did apply stringent measures from the start and have avoided exponential increases in cases, even up to 7 weeks in.

==

So five after two weeks is not reassuring, nor is the fact that we have had none in the last week.

Do we learn from others or be lulled into complacency and hold back on stringent measures until too late? Either way will involve pain but not necessarily in equal measures.

Fair enough. Remember though, we have been exposed the same timeframe as everyone else. Far less people travel here than to Italy and virtually any other country. There are small populations in Europe, but Europe is the hotbed. It will eclipse China

What do you suggest? Serious question.

Batman

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#2437826 14-Mar-2020 09:04

There's no need to wonder. UK are doing exactly the opposite of Europe. Just watch what happens and we'll know in a few days.

tdgeek

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#2437830 14-Mar-2020 09:15

Batman: There's no need to wonder. UK are doing exactly the opposite of Europe. Just watch what happens and we'll know in a few days.

What are they doing? A quick check shows schools remain open, and if anyone gets a cough etc they have to self isolate fr 7 days

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Geektastic

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#2437831 14-Mar-2020 09:15

Ademir:

It would take 24 meetings to agree the schedule and agenda for the main meeting in that place!

i just don't know what are they waiting for, the number of cases is increasing day by day.

For the working group to report? 😀

Fred99

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#2437832 14-Mar-2020 09:17

Trump just suggested that he may extend the Europe travel ban to include the UK. Supposedly there are announcements on new measures in a couple of hours.

Trump's press conference was scripted and timed solely to boost the markets.

Oblivian

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#2437833 14-Mar-2020 09:17

Theres a very cringe worthy us press conf on right now. (Q and a on al jazeera still)

Ego boosting all around. 12,000 cases.

National emergency declared. $50bn opened up
Oil stockpile being filled thanks to cheap crude (prob make it go up for us again)

Going to setup car park testing with a bunch of medical and walmart etc help

And yep, us$ has started to spike back again already

I likened it to hancock. So many good job/thank you as people tagged in and out. You could tell a lot was pre arranged

tdgeek

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#2437835 14-Mar-2020 09:25

Batman: There's no need to wonder. UK are doing exactly the opposite of Europe. Just watch what happens and we'll know in a few days.

You mean this? Let it infect everybody so that many die and the rest get herd immunity?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/uk/uk-coronavirus-response-boris-johnson-intl-gbr/index.html

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