2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2411178 1-Feb-2020 15:50

Measles/Whooping Cough come to mind as the benchmark for highly contagious.

Given we are already seeing the side effects of pandemic panic with overt misplaced racism (you look Asian therefor you're dangerous) and panic buying of supplies and price gouging, Further controls are going to put serious stress on primary care health services as more and more "walking well" fearing for their safety clog out GP's, Urgent Cares and ED's around the country which may lead to more health impacts and deaths than the actual virus.

So far we've got 106 cases confirmed world wide outside of China, Only 5 of which have had infection occur without any travel to China, Were starting to see those infected oversea's treated and released. We're still yet to have a death outside China and some effective treatment protocol's are starting to emerge. The situation inside China is murky at best so try not to transplant events and rumors from inside China with what is/may happen outside.

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

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Delphinus

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#2411180 1-Feb-2020 15:58

mattwnz:

I applied to get a measles vaccine in about August last year, and was told that I couldn't as there was a shortage, and that children were being given priority. I was told I would be contacted when there would be supply for adults, but never have been.

They are available now for adults, maybe call your GP again.

Fred99

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#2411181 1-Feb-2020 15:59

gzt:

"The level of contagion is such that each infected person will infect two to three other people if they don't take any precautions".

There's possibly a problem with that too. They're taking precautions in China yet it's still looking like one person infects 2 or 3 others.

The raw R0 figures being quoted around the place aren't a good guide to progression of epidemics.

703

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#2411186 1-Feb-2020 16:29

Rikkitic:

More racism.

It's going to get a lot worse, as people who were borderline racist now have a way of rationalising their behaviour. Note this is not the same as closing the border etc, which is not PC but in many cases risk justified.

gzt

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#2411187 1-Feb-2020 16:30

Tests on previously discussed Auckland suspected case came back negative today:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119206613/no-suspected-coronavirus-in-new-zealand-ministry-of-health-announce

The patient does not have it.

703

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#2411189 1-Feb-2020 16:34

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305177

"Auckland City Hospital was well prepared, with Bloomfield saying "our systems were ready"."

That is a load of BS, they do not have enough isolation units to handle a outbreak. And the virus does not know about geographics, so could happen anywhere in NZ not just Auckland where there might be a few spare rooms.

Reminds of me of Auckland Councils approach to handling the volume of people to the WRC, and saying public transport is well prepared.

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gzt

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#2411191 1-Feb-2020 16:54

Fred99: They're taking precautions in China yet it's still looking like one person infects 2 or 3 others.

The graph may be misleading in the sense that previous issues are well established historical data. For the current issue it's plausible it started earlier and we are on the steeper part shown in the other tracks. Ie; this one went unnoticed earlier due to lower fatality or misdiagnosis, and those early cases yet to be teased out of pneumonia and other stats.

I read an interesting fact about R95 masks, they are only really effective when worn correctly and the wearer is also using a hand sanitiser. I'm guessing this is because the masks are uncomfortable and people tend to touch their faces.

From there I deduced that in the event of an outbreak my life may depend on not picking my nose. Something I do occasionally when I think I'm alone in the car ; (. Touching the face, nose, or eyes occasionally is probably a harder habit to break. If you have ever been engaged in a task where it's impossible to touch an itchy nose due to paint covered hands or whatever you'll know it's difficult.

Beccara

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#2411192 1-Feb-2020 16:59

There's strong evidence that the Virus was seen as early as Dec 12th. The China stats are troublesome to say the least

gzt

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#2411194 1-Feb-2020 17:15

703:
Latest forecast from the Lancet journel.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

Pay particular attention to figure 4, worse is about to come and will peak around May.

"Therefore, in the absence of substantial public health interventions that are immediately applied, further international seeding and subsequent local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation. Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example. Precisely what and how much should be done is highly contextually specific and there is no one-size-fits-all set of prescriptive interventions that would be appropriate across all settings"

Great, we're doing none of the above.

The reason is simple and logical. NZ is not an "affected" area at this time. This is entirely consistent with the Lancet article.

tdgeek

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#2411241 1-Feb-2020 18:44

703:

Rikkitic:

More racism.

It's going to get a lot worse, as people who were borderline racist now have a way of rationalising their behaviour. Note this is not the same as closing the border etc, which is not PC but in many cases risk justified.

Whether a virus started in China , or the Middle East or Australia (as they all have) or Estonia or Alaska or the North Shore, its part of the ONE world we live in. The world is an eco system, it doesn't check a map for country boundaries.

tdgeek

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#2411243 1-Feb-2020 18:53

gzt:
703:

Latest forecast from the Lancet journel.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

Pay particular attention to figure 4, worse is about to come and will peak around May.

"Therefore, in the absence of substantial public health interventions that are immediately applied, further international seeding and subsequent local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation. Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example. Precisely what and how much should be done is highly contextually specific and there is no one-size-fits-all set of prescriptive interventions that would be appropriate across all settings"

Great, we're doing none of the above.

The reason is simple and logical. NZ is not an "affected" area at this time. This is entirely consistent with the Lancet article.

NZ is small. If we analysed population, Chinese residents, hence potential travel movements, we can calculate our risk. It may be that we are calculated to have 4 infections. As we are small, that may end up as 10, or 0 such is how probability works. Right now we are not an affected area, what does that actually mean? Are we risk free? Do we have a very small Chinese community so travel to and from isnt an issue? No. The Govt doesnt see it as an issue, thats plain to see. Maybe hoping that probability works. And hoping that with a small denominator, we are "safe" But the numerator with such a small denominator will not mirror the probability in a large country. If we end up with say one infection we are wonderful. If its 10, then ask who decided to take no measures.