2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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"Cookie"
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#2765628 23-Aug-2021 18:39

James Bond:

My local green grocer is open and operating. Not sure why some can't as per reports.

Our local Fruit World is open, but they qualify as essential as they sell other grocery items as well fruit and veg.

Milk, butter, bread, eggs, rice, noodles and a heap of other stuff.

Delete cookies?! Are you insane?!

Fred99

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#2765629 23-Aug-2021 18:39

vexxxboy:

Buster:

Just get everyone that can, vaccinated. We will have plenty of vaccine.

Vaccinated people don't need hospital or ICU.

that is still months away, what do you do in the mean time if you cant wipe it out. Stay in Lockdown?

Only two options. You wipe it out - or actually do control case numbers with hard lockdowns needed for Delta, or you start getting reefer containers in place to store bodies. That last option was common in first world countries.

antonknee

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#2765631 23-Aug-2021 18:44

James Bond:

My local green grocer is open and operating. Not sure why some can't as per reports.

They shouldn’t be, unless they’re a supermarket.

“Green grocers, butchers, bakeries, and fishmongers cannot open to customers. ”

The reasoning for this was apparently around reducing the number of places people may have contact with other people (customers and employees), and to reduce trips made outside of the house.

Agree or disagree with that reasoning as you wish - can see an argument around what’s the difference in people going to supermarkets vs greengrocers, and around closing greengrocers means everyone has to go to the supermarket so there would be less risk if more places were open. Maybe - but chances are if you’re going to the greengrocers, you’re also going to the supermarket so your number of risky exposures still goes up.

HelloThere

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#2765634 23-Aug-2021 19:04

antonknee: They shouldn’t be, unless they’re a supermarket.

“Green grocers, butchers, bakeries, and fishmongers cannot open to customers. ”

The reasoning for this was apparently around reducing the number of places people may have contact with other people (customers and employees), and to reduce trips made outside of the house.

Agree or disagree with that reasoning as you wish - can see an argument around what’s the difference in people going to supermarkets vs greengrocers, and around closing greengrocers means everyone has to go to the supermarket so there would be less risk if more places were open. Maybe - but chances are if you’re going to the greengrocers, you’re also going to the supermarket so your number of risky exposures still goes up.

Both green grocers are open in my town. One is doing phone orders which you pick up out the back and the other one is a one in / one out door however they didn't open last L4. I don't see the issue when Z can do pies and coffees which people would find any excuse to go and get one.

neb

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#2765639 23-Aug-2021 19:09

I've started a new thread to discuss Covid19 as it applies to GZ Members,with the goal being:

This is a new thread for discussion of Covid19 issues purely as they apply to GZ members. The intent is to provide a low-volume discussion forum for people to talk about Covid19 as it applies to them, to get away from the firehose of stuff on the main Covid19 thread, which is way too much to handle. Use this thread purely to talk about things that apply directly to yourself and other GZ members: Where to get tests, test results, waiting times, vaccination advice, support for people in isolation, etc. Please don't post the stuff that's filling up the main Covid19 thread: News articles, reports from overseas, speculation on where things are going, etc. The idea is to create a low-volume alternative to the main Covid19 thread that people can keep up with without being overwhelmed.

mattwnz

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#2765642 23-Aug-2021 19:25

Fred99:

Handle9:

They have significantly increased the equipment but you can't magic up the staff. Closed borders and all that

NSW's ICU "beds per head of population" is IIRC about 30% higher than NZ.

They already have 100 covid patients in ICU, IIRC about >1,000 total beds, I'd guess 50% of those beds are already in use for non-covid cases, though I expect they'll be frantically cancelling elective surgeries and triaging urgent cases very carefully.

The total Covid cases they have so far is about 0.1% of the population. One in a thousand. That's hardly any cases at all. But...

If you do the maths, then while they're in a slightly better position than NZ - they're also completely screwed if they can't hold case numbers down with present lockdowns - which are now (finally) very harsh. They're at ~800 new cases a day, their system cannot cope if new cases in a partly vaccinated population exceed about 2,000 per day. Extrapolate that to NZ, then we'll be swamped if we allow cases to grow to over say 1,300/day.

Complicating matters is that Covid patients in ICU tend to stay there much longer than typical patients. In the end, unless we can roll out vaccinations to the "right" minimum level whatever that is - before this gets out of control - we'll end up turning patients away - triage them and offer ICU level care to those with the best chance of making it.

I was using from the stats provided in this article and podcast today https://thekaka.substack.com/p/time-to-eliminate-elimination , which is worth a listen.

I just wonder how NZ is going to get 90%+ vaccinated. That is going to be the big problem for NZ, as it will largely become a disease of the unvaccinated. Most people putting strain on the health system will be those that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

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mattwnz

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#2765644 23-Aug-2021 19:27

HelloThere:

Both green grocers are open in my town. One is doing phone orders which you pick up out the back and the other one is a one in / one out door however they didn't open last L4.

Based on what I have seen, only dairies can do this. Apparently some are selling via dairies to get around this.

antonknee

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#2765655 23-Aug-2021 19:35

HelloThere:

Both green grocers are open in my town. One is doing phone orders which you pick up out the back and the other one is a one in / one out door however they didn't open last L4. I don't see the issue when Z can do pies and coffees which people would find any excuse to go and get one.

Well the law says they should not be opening (unless they are a supermarket - which depending on what they sell, they might be able to justify that description), and by opening they are increasing the risk (even if by an infinitesimal amount). They should not be doing that poor man’s click and collect either. This business needs to close and I’d happily don them in if I knew where they were

The issue is that it’s one more place to visit, it’s one more place employees need to go to, it’s one more supply chain that has to operate with its associated contacts. And if you say all bakeries and greengrocers and butchers across NZ can open, then that’s thousands of places. It becomes about scale at that point.

Personally I don’t think Z should be doing pies and coffee, but that is in fact allowed by the legislation where the greengrocers is not.

sbiddle

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#2765666 23-Aug-2021 20:10

James Bond:

My local green grocer is open and operating. Not sure why some can't as per reports.

Butchers and greengrocers are only allowed to operate as online contactless delivery.

It seems plenty of smaller greengrocers that also stock other food are just opening, and to be honest differentiating some from a dairy would be pretty difficult. Bakeries finally got their exemption for contactless delivery on Friday after earlier being told they couldn't open.

MBIE said this morning they basically don't care now so it's anything goes really..

HelloThere

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#2765670 23-Aug-2021 20:22

I guess you can sell bread, milk, cream, butter, eggs etc and call yourself a dairy.

Scott3

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#2765673 23-Aug-2021 20:58

vexxxboy:

hope this all works because the Govt. has no other plan if it doesn't.

The pause in vaccinations was pretty strong evidence that the government is betting on success in eliminating the virus.

But I don't think anybody without insider knowledge can say that there isn't a plan B. And if there isn't, it can be made up on the fly.

Sadly any plan B isn't likely to be that attractive.

I would pick dialing back to alert level 3, accepting a bunch of deaths and hospitalizations, while we vaccinate at cira 400k doses a week, untill we reach about 8m doses given out incl the 2.6m allready done (or we run out of willing people). That's about 13.4 weeks. Takes us through to the end of November. We are going into summer at that point, so likely we would further relax restrictions at that point, and take to bouncing between alert levels 1 & 2 to manage hospital load.

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Handle9

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#2765689 23-Aug-2021 21:31

mattwnz:

I just wonder how NZ is going to get 90%+ vaccinated. That is going to be the big problem for NZ, as it will largely become a disease of the unvaccinated. Most people putting strain on the health system will be those that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

New Zealand won’t get to 90% vaccination. There is no reason to think this is feasible.

Batman

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#2765690 23-Aug-2021 21:34

herald's evening update for the day

LoIs grown to 403

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-seven-covid-cases-at-aut-auckland-lockdown-for-several-weeks-likely-expert/SC6UKPRR7FMOA2O4MIRSELUWAE/

mattwnz

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#2765695 23-Aug-2021 22:40

Handle9:
mattwnz:

I just wonder how NZ is going to get 90%+ vaccinated. That is going to be the big problem for NZ, as it will largely become a disease of the unvaccinated. Most people putting strain on the health system will be those that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

New Zealand won’t get to 90% vaccination. There is no reason to think this is feasible.

But New Zealand is different.

Based on the frenzy where NZers rush in for anything that is free, I am sure if they gave everyone a set of Smeg knives for getting both vaccinations and the booster, we would get up there. LoL

Technofreak

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#2765696 23-Aug-2021 22:42

This article isn't complementary of the government's management of the pandemic and it explains why they are focussed on elimination. Basically they don't have any choice. ICU capacity is less than when Covid started and our vaccination roll out has been too slow are two principal reasons.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-the-governments-covid-preparedness-under-scrutiny/GSARWZ3WBZ447XGOZ32IS3TP7Q/

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