2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2765786 24-Aug-2021 10:17

James Bond:

Singapore is 76% fully vaccinated yet they are having 50 new cases a day recently. That's a worry.

but what's the hospitalization rate?

vexxxboy

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#2765790 24-Aug-2021 10:22

On2or3wheels:

Buster:

Vaccinated people don't need hospital or ICU.

This isn't true. The vaccine isn't 100% effective for a start, you then have people with underlying health conditions, + your immunity can drop over time.

it is almost true, in the USA only 7% of hospital admissions of people with covid have had both vaccinations and the majority of them are older people with underlying health conditions and i think the people who die who have had both vaccinations is around 0.003%.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

On2or3wheels

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#2765802 24-Aug-2021 10:56

vexxxboy:

it is almost true, in the USA only 7% of hospital admissions of people with covid have had both vaccinations and the majority of them are older people with underlying health conditions and i think the people who die who have had both vaccinations is around 0.003%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html

"Until recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that fully vaccinated people accounted for less than 3 percent of coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide and less than 1 percent of virus deaths. But last week, the agency noted that those figures did not reflect new data involving the Delta variant and said it was actively working to update them. Only about 50 percent of people in the United States are fully vaccinated."

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#2765805 24-Aug-2021 11:03

Batman:

James Bond:

Singapore is 76% fully vaccinated yet they are having 50 new cases a day recently. That's a worry.

but what's the hospitalization rate?

As of today: 826 active, 329 in hospital, 7 critical.

Batman

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#2765807 24-Aug-2021 11:07

James Bond:

As of today: 826 active, 329 in hospital, 7 critical.

do we know if they are young/old fit/unhealthy?

On2or3wheels

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#2765810 24-Aug-2021 11:09

James Bond:

As of today: 826 active, 329 in hospital, 7 critical.

To have that ratio in hospital must mean they have 1000's of undiagnosed cases in the community.

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#2765811 24-Aug-2021 11:11

Batman:

James Bond:

As of today: 826 active, 329 in hospital, 7 critical.

do we know if they are young/old fit/unhealthy?

I'll have a look now. Source here from their own MoH: https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19/statistics

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#2765812 24-Aug-2021 11:13

Seems as the media ask for it, more data is made available.

There has been a reporter that kept asking for maori and pacifica stats that have now been separated. And more DHB and supply/use graphs

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

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#2765814 24-Aug-2021 11:14

Apologies if already posted, but data from Israel re impact of Delta on the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine makes interesting reading; here are the highlights reported in one article:

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.
The two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

DS248

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#2765862 24-Aug-2021 11:20

vexxxboy:

On2or3wheels:

Buster: Vaccinated people don't need hospital or ICU.

This isn't true. The vaccine isn't 100% effective for a start, you then have people with underlying health conditions, + your immunity can drop over time.

it is almost true, in the USA only 7% of hospital admissions of people with covid have had both vaccinations and the majority of them are older people with underlying health conditions and i think the people who die who have had both vaccinations is around 0.003%.

"... almost true" ...! NOT.

"... people who die who have had both vaccinations is around 0.003%".

0.003% of what? The total population? The hospitalised population? .. Over what time period? Of people that get Covid, or Covid patients that die?

And how reliable are US Covid data?

Countries such as Singapore have more reliable data. But even their data will be impacted by their 'distorted' population age structure. Only 62% of the population are Citizens. Non-Citizen Residents (~9%) are significantly skewed to working age groups and Non-Residents (29%) heavily skewed to (or almost solely?) working age people. Hence there is a strong skew to less vulnerable population segments.

For what it is worth though, the Singapore data for the 28 days to 22(?) Aug show the following conditional hazard ratios for people confirmed with C19: (ratios relative to unvaccinated)

Ever required oxygen supplementation, ever in ICU or died: Single dose 0.45; Fully vaccinated 0.20

Ever in ICU or died **: Single dose 0.16; Fully vaccinated 0.12

Died **: Single dose 0.15; Fully vaccinated 0.08 (** Very small numbers = large uncertainty)

So yes, based on their data the mRNA vaccines provide significant protection against serious illness, but it is far from 100% protection.

Apart from the skewed population age structure, a further caveat with the Singapore data is that though the level of vaccination is very high, many of the vaccinations are relatively recent.

Data from Israel where much of the population has been vaccinated for 4 - 6 months appear to show less effectiveness.

Recent reports are though indicating that the (recent) third doses have significantly improved protection from infection and serious illness among people aged 60 and older in Israel, compared with those who received two shots (https://play.stuff.co.nz/details/_6269140254001)

Source: https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19-situation-and-vaccination-progress-(22-aug-2021)

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#2765918 24-Aug-2021 11:42

When will we learn? Looks like it was an outbreak just waiting to happen, it really wasn't a matter of if, it was just a matter of when. What's more there's a Covid vaccination centre there as well. Who makes these decisions? Is there no critical analysis of what might happen? How can we be so dumb?

Public walks right into Crowne Plaza mess

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#2765931 24-Aug-2021 12:08

Technofreak:

When will we learn? Looks like it was an outbreak just waiting to happen, it really wasn't a matter of if, it was just a matter of when. What's more there's a Covid vaccination centre there as well. Who makes these decisions? Is there no critical analysis of what might happen? How can we be so dumb?

Public walks right into Crowne Plaza mess

Incomprehensible!

We clearly need a funded, completely independent public watchdog acting purely in the public's interest, reporting directly to the public.

Batman

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#2765933 24-Aug-2021 12:10

Technofreak:

When will we learn? Looks like it was an outbreak just waiting to happen, it really wasn't a matter of if, it was just a matter of when. What's more there's a Covid vaccination centre there as well. Who makes these decisions? Is there no critical analysis of what might happen? How can we be so dumb?

Public walks right into Crowne Plaza mess

because she'll be right is how we operate. it's just the kiwi way. and you can't blame the top for this. not politicking. some middle manager knew about this and did nothing.

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#2765935 24-Aug-2021 12:16

Technofreak:

When will we learn? Looks like it was an outbreak just waiting to happen, it really wasn't a matter of if, it was just a matter of when. What's more there's a Covid vaccination centre there as well. Who makes these decisions? Is there no critical analysis of what might happen? How can we be so dumb?

Public walks right into Crowne Plaza mess

For several months people have been asking about the wisdom of a vaccination centre right next to the CP. There was even discussion I heard at one point on the radio a while ago about some people who were supposed to be vaccinated there refusing to even enter the building when they realised it was near the CP because they didn't even want to be in the vicinity of a MIQ property.

DS248

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#2765949 24-Aug-2021 12:41

I am not certain how many are interested but while we need to encourage vaccinations, it is also important the discussion is based on sound data.

FWIW plots below are recent Israeli data related to mRNA vaccine effectiveness by age group (data sourced from health.gov.il). Based on active and seriously ill cases as reported at noon 23 Aug.

First plot shows the rate of infections per 100k population for various age groups. Ignore the <20 groups as they are/were not yet highly vaccinated. Best also to ignore the 'Partially vaccinated' group due to small case numbers.

Infection rates (per 100k population) in the first plot need to be treated with some caution due to likely behaviour differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated. Latter may have more freedoms but possibly the former include covidiots and deniers etc.

But FWIW, the data show infection rates in fully vaccinated people that are in the range of 77% - 55% in the 20- 59 age groups. Lower in the older age groups but possibly, being more vulnerable they are more cautious and take more steps to avoid infection (& possibly less so in the anti-vax group).

In the event of infection, the conditional hazard ratio for serious illness based on these data is around 35% for people 70 and over.

I did not find comparable data for deaths but likely the numbers are too small, at least for analysis by age group.

Edit: Oops, mis-typed. Ave conditional HR for 70+ is 35% (not 25%). Fixed above.

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