2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2768086 28-Aug-2021 14:17

Well yesterday, maybe day before were first time people could rock up and get tested
without considering if there is a bush nearby to go to toilet in ?

Its a problem when your timeseries data is not representative of time.
Now we potentially have backlog cleared we can have better idea going forward perhaps.

The numbers on contacts that have not been contacted/tested and the days uncontacted/tested is probably more representative of progress ?

Where would we be without sewage testing and we do need more of it, smaller towns and to identify suburbs of concern ?
It will be important part of later managing of covid, when we reach peak vaccination, but we need 100x more granularity.

mattwnz

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#2768091 28-Aug-2021 14:36

tdgeek:

sbiddle:

So few details to really form any sort of judgement if it's good or bad.

I find it quite annoying. While I don't expect a 300 page report delivered to my door, I do expect a guide on where the 82 cases came from. They are either infected IN lockdown, as in self isolation, or they are infected out in the community. 82 cases means nothing. It might be 80 household infections, or it could be 80 true community transmissions. Awesome news vs shocking news. All I can extrapolate from this, is its in between those two. Maybe if we are kept in the dark and its rising, Kiwis will be more careful? Or be less annoyed by extended lockdown?

I don't think they know, and I am not sure the contact tracing systems are up to Delta, based on the Kaka podcast previously linked to. I heard there was a big percentage yesterday which couldn't be linked at that time to existing cases. I can't understand why they aren't doing a 1pm standup, especially as case numbers are continuing to rise, so reporters can ask these types of questions. I read one article suggesting that Auckland may need a stricter level 4 in Auckland. Stats show that a lot more people are working during this lockdown , than the first one, and that workspaces are places where it is spreading during level 4. I am wondering if there is a combination of things going on. Certainly in my area, there are far more cars driving around and more people not following the rules. But this isn't Auckland. I also wonder if vaccinated people are taking more of a risk, because if they do catch it, they are less likely to get seriously ill or die. But if that is the case, that is pretty selfish of them. We also need to remember that the numbers aren't all the cases that have the virus, it will just be a percentage, as some people won't get tested or know they need to get tested, which is what level 4 is for, to starve the virus of new hosts.

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#2768093 28-Aug-2021 14:39

ezbee:

Well yesterday, maybe day before were first time people could rock up and get tested
without considering if there is a bush nearby to go to toilet in ?

Its a problem when your timeseries data is not representative of time.
Now we potentially have backlog cleared we can have better idea going forward perhaps.

The numbers on contacts that have not been contacted/tested and the days uncontacted/tested is probably more representative of progress ?

Where would we be without sewage testing and we do need more of it, smaller towns and to identify suburbs of concern ?
It will be important part of later managing of covid, when we reach peak vaccination, but we need 100x more granularity.

I don't understand why this isn't more widespread and more resources putting into it. Surely it should have picked up the Auckland outbreak far earlier, had it excluded the MIQs in the area. Christchurch's testing seems ridiculous, if the Christchurch MIQs sewage isn't been isolated off using septic tanks etc. So they have to wait until the do more testing to see if the positive results are really from MIQ or not.

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#2768094 28-Aug-2021 14:39

i think if they shut the country down the country deserve to know more than just a statement every day

with parliament shut down there is currently no accountability

DS248

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#2768095 28-Aug-2021 14:41

FWIW, in the MOH csv file the number of local cases for 'Report date' 27 Aug is 73, 6 down on the figure for 26 Aug. A further 5 have a report date of today (28 Aug) but they will be just what had been collated up to 9am.

At risk of boring everyone, version of plot below focusses on the decay in case numbers post-peak. Mainly comparing NZ Aug 20 and Vic Jun 20. Both of course, pre-delta.

Interestingly, almost identical exponential decay rate in both cases under ~L3 lockdown conditions (Vic was possibly a bit above L3 over that time?).

In QLD's recent (delta) outbreak, the decay rate started out the same but did drop off 'suddenly' from ~6 cases.

If our current outbreak has reached a turning point (a big 'if'), it could well take a further 7 weeks for our case numbers to drop to 3/day. That is if the decay does follow the trends in the three historical examples. With delta around, it is hard to see AKL dropping out of L3/L4 before numbers get down to at least ~3/day?

Hence potentially a further seven weeks of L3/L4 for Auckland? That is assuming we have now passed peak, which is probably optimistic (per the plot - the numbers bounce around).

Unless our L4 does make a big difference, it is looking like a long haul. Possibly politically (& economically) untenable to maintain L4 that long so I am guessing it would drop to L3 well before then.

NB: red lines fitted by eye (not Excel trendlines)

mattwnz

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#2768096 28-Aug-2021 14:43

Batman:

i think if they shut the country down the country deserve to know more than just a statement every day

They used to do standups on both Saturday and Sunday . Now they are lucky to get the written press release out by 1:30pm when it should be released by 1pm. I think the public deserve better communications on what is happening, especially with daily numbers still rising so far into lockdown.

If the numbers do drop over the next few days, that also maybe due to the weekend, as history shows that people getting tested tends to drop off over weekends.

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surfisup1000

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#2768112 28-Aug-2021 15:14

How much transmission between bubbles?

Are we having new bubbles appear?

They are not telling us, but it is the most important factor in knowing whether we have this under control.

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#2768124 28-Aug-2021 15:46

DS248:

I've only just realised that GZ has an in-house modeller

sbiddle

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#2768125 28-Aug-2021 15:49

surfisup1000:

How much transmission between bubbles?

Are we having new bubbles appear?

They are not telling us, but it is the most important factor in knowing whether we have this under control.

We simply aren't being told where cases are coming from..

Should we be worried about Hendy saying this? Does he know things that we're not being told about locations of spread or just making wild statements?

GV27

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#2768128 28-Aug-2021 15:55

We will also likely see a dip on Sunday/Monday like the good old days, although I'm sure some will try to pump up the reduced number of cases as "SEE, WE'RE WINNING" as if there isn't an actual reason for lower testing/processing numbers.

mattwnz

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#2768132 28-Aug-2021 16:04

Just returned from supermarket and some staff are still not wearing masks, only plastic face shields. I am not that surprised that supermarkets are becoming covid hotshots. I suspect if I report it to the supermarket they will say that they are permitted as an alternative. I think Auckland may see supermarket shopping restrictions but I don't know how that will work

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#2768135 28-Aug-2021 16:12

sbiddle:

surfisup1000:

How much transmission between bubbles?

Are we having new bubbles appear?

They are not telling us, but it is the most important factor in knowing whether we have this under control.

We simply aren't being told where cases are coming from..

Should we be worried about Hendy saying this? Does he know things that we're not being told about locations of spread or just making wild statements?

My pick apart of that article. If the numbers don't plateau soon we have a problem. I guess there was some spread in some businesses before lockdown but has that continued after lockdown? I'm not sure he is saying it's still happening, only if it was then we need to act. That last two sentences put things in some sort of perspective. The growth is in known clusters and while it's only in known clusters it's not out of control.

I don't think he's saying anything we need to be worried about. The headline for that article probably over states what he was really getting at.

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Fred99

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#2768137 28-Aug-2021 16:15

mattwnz:

ezbee:

Well yesterday, maybe day before were first time people could rock up and get tested
without considering if there is a bush nearby to go to toilet in ?

Its a problem when your timeseries data is not representative of time.
Now we potentially have backlog cleared we can have better idea going forward perhaps.

The numbers on contacts that have not been contacted/tested and the days uncontacted/tested is probably more representative of progress ?

Where would we be without sewage testing and we do need more of it, smaller towns and to identify suburbs of concern ?
It will be important part of later managing of covid, when we reach peak vaccination, but we need 100x more granularity.

I don't understand why this isn't more widespread and more resources putting into it. Surely it should have picked up the Auckland outbreak far earlier, had it excluded the MIQs in the area. Christchurch's testing seems ridiculous, if the Christchurch MIQs sewage isn't been isolated off using septic tanks etc. So they have to wait until the do more testing to see if the positive results are really from MIQ or not.

They'll sample from points "upstream" or on a different part of the system to where the MIQ facility is. So that means pulling multiple samples, combining, presumably shipping the boxed sample to ESR in Wellington, then the testing takes time. As well as showing positives from MIQ with active cases, recovered cases in the community still shed viral RNA and cause "false positives".

I doubt "septic tanks" are desirable or feasible, nor sampling from every tiny rural town. Maybe in future. Next measles outbreak in NZ (because dumb antivaxxers makes it inevitable) I'd almost wager that wastewater testing will be used. It's probably destined to be a feature even for monitoring seasonal flu etc.

Sure - dedicated quarantine facilities should be constructed, but it's probably too late for the covid pandemic. By the time these could be built, I expect Covid will be endemic - so there'd be no point.

But I very much believe that we should build them. It's so highly probable that there will be future pandemics it may as well be considered a certainty. I expect that when it appears, the reaction from "leaders" who argued that the cost to the economy (or sectors of it) would be "too much to bear" might have by then analysed the cost (even if only only in dollar terms) of our global folly with Covid. If we don't have failsafe quarantine facilities, we'll be in very deep trouble. Some number of people will simply have to travel - to keep the rest of us fed and safe.

Problem is how and where, and at what cost.

mattwnz

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#2768138 28-Aug-2021 16:16

I thought i heard the PM say that their was a case from an essential workplace caught after lockdown. We have to remember that there are still a lot of people working in workplaces that are considered essential

Fred99

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#2768139 28-Aug-2021 16:22

Reading some of the posts above, I suspect a few people may only be reading news media or the MoH daily summary.

There's a press release as well:

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/82-additional-community-cases-covid-19-1-new-case-managed-isolation-facility-more-89000-vaccines

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