Its a pity we didnt get told yesterday of the household cases in the 53, and the CT cases

frankv:

 

When you're working in an area with large unknowns, targets and plans are likely to be wildly inaccurate. It's not worth putting a huge effort into a detailed plan that you then throw away because it's unworkable. You have to be flexible. The demand for targets and plans is great for political game playing, but not necessarily for management of the problem.

 

This exactly.

Some of the media in NZ also aren't serving the public very well - creating public outrage and fear with clickbait (for ad revenue).

Fred99:

 

I don't think vaccination alone is going to be the answer to getting out of lockdown and back to (as close to) normal ASAP.  Elimination is the best short term strategy.

 

If you could vaccinate everybody in Auckland today, it's going to be ~2 months before there's "peak" immunity (reducing risk of severe disease), but that still won't eliminate transmission.  If vaccinating everyone in Auckland meant lower rates of vaccination elsewhere, then the 3.5 million people who don't live in Auckland would be at increased risk.

 

I think the concept of "ring-fencing" covid outbreaks by vaccination is history - it might have worked with earlier strains, but not with delta.

 

The comment was the extra vaccines, if they can be sourced, go to Auckland as a priority. So those sitting comfortably in the South Island needn’t worry about the ‘scheduled’ supply.

If ring fencing is pointless then why were certain communities in South Auckland prioritised?

I seem to remember someone in charge saying “We don’t need to hurry, there’s no COVID in NZ” when referring to the speed of the vaccine rollout. So surely the 3.5 million you refer to fit into this category at the moment (no COVID south of Bombay Hills)? Otherwise, if they are at imminent risk on the other side of the border then they should stay at least at Level 3 until Auckland joins everybody at Level 2.
Every outbreak (post the initial) so far has originated in Auckland and with a border leak. Three so far. (The Wellington restrictions earlier this year were in response to exactly zero community cases.) It’s easy to sit in Christchurch and know what’s best for Auckland. If I was King, I would shut down all the MIQ in Auckland until everyone is vaccinated as well.

tdgeek:

 

Its a pity we didnt get told yesterday of the household cases in the 53, and the CT cases

 

it seems like there is time lag of around 24 hours for them to work out those details.

Most likely because the first questions will be around - were have you been, and working out if LoIs need to be listed

We do seem to be getting the breakdown now, just with na day in between

Clint

Dingbatt:

 

If ring fencing is pointless then why were certain communities in South Auckland prioritised?

 

Probably for two reasons, firstly when that was decided, delta wasn't considered to be a concern and the strains that were circulating globally may have been able to be ring-fenced using the Pfizer vaccine - if close to 100% vaccine compliance could have been achieved.

Secondly because it's a demographic with high levels of co-morbidities and often living in multi-generational families in cramped housing conditions.  

Oblivian:

 

We may be wasting ourtime anyway..

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-detects-new-coronavirus-variant-still-studying-its-mutations-2021-08-30/ 

 

Once again, couple of nations without a hold. Everyone else is effected.

 

 

There have been 101 C.1.2 strains detected globally to date (89 in South Africa). It shows no evidence of increasing in frequency, and it may be extinct by now.

Fred99:

 

Dingbatt:

 

If ring fencing is pointless then why were certain communities in South Auckland prioritised?

 

 

Probably for two reasons, firstly when that was decided, delta wasn't considered to be a concern and the strains that were circulating globally may have been able to be ring-fenced using the Pfizer vaccine - if close to 100% vaccine compliance could have been achieved.

 

Secondly because it's a demographic with high levels of co-morbidities and often living in multi-generational families in cramped housing conditions.  

 

Just as well they were prioritised then. Just like Auckland should be prioritised.

Dingbatt:

 

Just as well they were prioritised then. Just like Auckland should be prioritised.

 

"Auckland" isn't a risk demographic in terms of individual risk of serious disease if infected.

Fred99:

 

There have been 101 C.1.2 strains detected globally to date (89 in South Africa). It shows no evidence of increasing in frequency, and it may be extinct by now.

At least I didn't run with the full size banner the herald have made scary as from the reuters as a result :P

Dingbatt:

 

Maybe if they are able to secure more supplies they should go to Auckland since it is worst affected*.The boundaries are set by the alert levels so there won’t be any vaccination migration.

 

My vested interest in this is to get out of lockdown and return to some semblance of normality. My family and I have been fully vaccinated for months.

 

* Note: I did suggest vaccine priority for Auckland pages back. It has also been picked up in an opinion piece in today’s NZ Auckland Herald.

 

FTFY

Truly amazing "news" - the Auckland Herald thinks its staff and readership should be protected ahead of anyone else.

Edit: Apologies, intemperate comment removed

looks like the leak has been plugged. no news on cases ...

Oblivian:

 

Fred99:

 

There have been 101 C.1.2 strains detected globally to date (89 in South Africa). It shows no evidence of increasing in frequency, and it may be extinct by now.

 

At least I didn't run with the full size banner the herald have made scary as from the reuters as a result :P

 

Couple of big stand outs in that article

source ; news.com.au

plus "told Fox News Channel's The Story last month that he predicts it could emerge soon"

49 cases - all in AKL

over 60% of yesterday's cases were isolating contacts iirc

Batman:

 

49 cases - all in AKL

 

over 60% of yesterday's cases were isolating contacts iirc

 

Yep.  AB also made a comment that modelling was showing that R0 had been dropped below one. 

As far as the short-medium term future for covid response level goes, JA made the comment that delta meant elevation of one level above what would have been applied.  If you extend that, then if the elimination is successful, the result could be nationwide L2 (or L2 in either the SI or NZ outside Auckland).

That would be a good move IMO. 

And for people convinced I'm a shill for the NZ Labour Party or whatever, from a post of mine on 2 July:

 

But Delta variant is a threat, lockdowns might be able to contain it - but they're likely to have to be even harsher, more extensive, and a damned sight more expensive than in the past.

 

I'm not confident that level one restrictions are enough while almost nobody is scanning in, in winter where unlike last year there is the usual spike in cases of other viral respiratory infections, the initial symptoms of delta are different from other variants, they're just like any "normal" cold or "flu" - so if we get CT of Delta it's less likely to be picked up quickly enough and then tracing and containing it becomes exponentially more difficult - or impossible.  We're asking for trouble, and not doing enough IMO.  And government needs to do something before it's too late.

 

(It's been extremely disappointing that my "comrades" don't do exactly what I tell them 🤣  /s tag in case it's needed)