2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2775418 9-Sep-2021 14:32

I read we are heading towards having a Covid passport.

NZ To Have Vaccine Passport by Christmas

Are we going to develop our own or adopt something like Common Pass? Seems to me we'd be better off with a universal app rather than a New Zealand centric one.

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JPNZ

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#2775419 9-Sep-2021 14:34

sen8or:

Resistance to the lockdowns? Not entirely sure that is much of an option. There have been a handful of protests this time round and they were swiftly dealt with by the police and social media shaming / bullying swiftly deals with many others that don't come to the police attention.

There is not much resistance right now because most people realise we are only at 35% fully vaccinated. Come Jan 2022 I think you'll start to see a lot of resistance, when that figure "hopefully" will be over 80% and everyone has followed the rules for 18 months+.

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elpenguino

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#2775436 9-Sep-2021 14:59

Batman: 13 cases 6 infectious in community

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-13-new-cases-in-community-jacinda-ardern-and-ashley-bloomfield/WZVEIB6BJGGRVRIWAJGGPZBMEA/

Good work Aucklanders - almost there :-)

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

afe66

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#2775438 9-Sep-2021 15:07

For those who would like some nz specific modelling information

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606521001656

With 90% total population vaccinated and open boarder with 10 actives cases per day entering country.

Over 2 years 11,000 hospitisations cases and 1030 deaths estimated...

wellygary

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#2775439 9-Sep-2021 15:07

elpenguino:

Batman: 13 cases 6 infectious in community

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-13-new-cases-in-community-jacinda-ardern-and-ashley-bloomfield/WZVEIB6BJGGRVRIWAJGGPZBMEA/

Good work Aucklanders - almost there :-)

Although its quite clear its going to have a very "sticky" long tail...

The big question is do they believe that they can continue to see a reduction in case numbers under Level 3 restrictions.... which lets a lot more workplaces ( particularly construction) operate

I have a feeling that unless we a well under 10 cases by Monday they will push out level 4 in Auckland until Friday.. or maybe another full week

[mind you I though they would keep level 3 for the whole country for another week... so maybe I'm just being paranoid]

Handle9

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#2775440 9-Sep-2021 15:08

Technofreak:
I read we are heading towards having a Covid passport.

NZ To Have Vaccine Passport by Christmas

Are we going to develop our own or adopt something like Common Pass? Seems to me we'd be better off with a universal app rather than a New Zealand centric one.

Vaccine passports are a hot mess. They really aren't much good for international travel yet. It's going to take a while to shakeout.

In the interim each country is doing its own thig, backed into their vaccination databases.

frankv

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#2775442 9-Sep-2021 15:10

JPNZ:

If we don't have any delta outbreaks by the end of the year and we are over 80% vaccinated there will be huge resistance to further lockdowns in 2022 and beyond.

I think you're overestimating the anti-lockdown sentiment in NZ. I believe that most Kiwis are very happy with the Government's handling of covid, and accept that lockdowns are a necessary evil. The alternative is a flood of sick people into our hospitals, potentially a very large death toll, and extended L2.9 controls to limit the consequences of the pandemic to "not a complete disaster", as per NSW, UK, and the rest.

There's a very vocal minority who catastrophize the lockdowns and feed and are fed by the "freedom warriors" and anti-vaxxers and the alt.right and religious nutters. If we're only 80% vaccinated in 2022 and therefore need another lockdown, it'll be *because* of those people. They'll be the author of their own, and our, misfortune. Don't be one of those people.

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ezbee

2405 posts

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#2775444 9-Sep-2021 15:11

S'pore's Covid-19 fight: No good options going forward, so it is a matter of choosing the least bad one
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/no-good-options-going-forward-so-it-is-a-matter-of-choosing-the-least-bad-one

""
Singapore recently crossed a milestone, having fully vaccinated more than 80 per cent of its population.
""
Unfortunately, the way things have panned out, reaching this target no longer spells the end of pandemic woes.
""
But now that more than 90 per cent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated, the MTF, instead of opening up, has decided to prolong the current regime by a couple of weeks and is putting even more measures in place. Why?
""

Also Singapore has started its vaccine , and 4 tests with home isolation system to allow free travel to and from Germany.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/fully-vaccinated-travellers-can-travel-to-germany-and-back-without-serving-shn

So there will be much to learn, as this progresses.
I expect that Australia and NZ will create compatible systems vaccine cert once we are ready.

Handle9

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#2775445 9-Sep-2021 15:12

Fred99:
IMO there's also going to be a change in perception of risk by the fully vaccinated - which is going to create even more resistance to containment by lockdown. This just my perception, I feel a bit the same way myself and I'll be less enthusiastic about lockdowns in future. Compliance will drop, lockdowns will fail.

Long-term lockdowns can't be sustained, the social license ends. It's just too difficult.

In that regard NZ is much the same as everywhere else.

sen8or

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#2775447 9-Sep-2021 15:13

Dare I say it, but we need the likes of google / microsoft / facebook or apple to develop the passport, they seem to have the resources and their systems are widely used worldwide (and well, google and facebook certainly have the data already).

It will only be a mess because parties with vested interests will poke holes in anyone elses implementation that means they won't get their slice of the (very substantial) money pie.

sen8or

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#2775450 9-Sep-2021 15:17

Handle9:
Fred99:

IMO there's also going to be a change in perception of risk by the fully vaccinated - which is going to create even more resistance to containment by lockdown. This just my perception, I feel a bit the same way myself and I'll be less enthusiastic about lockdowns in future. Compliance will drop, lockdowns will fail.

Long-term lockdowns can't be sustained, the social license ends. It's just too difficult.

In that regard NZ is much the same as everywhere else.

I wrote elsewhere that we will rapidly head towards the Maggie Thatcher question "what happens when socialism runs out of other peoples money to spend". Whilst the lockdown is not a socialism problem, the bucket of money the Government spends on sustaining lockdowns surely has to be finite, we don't want to get like the US where debt levels threaten to bring the country to a grinding halt.

frankv

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#2775460 9-Sep-2021 15:20

sen8or:

There have been a handful of protests this time round and they were swiftly dealt with by the police and social media shaming / bullying swiftly deals with many others that don't come to the police attention.

Case in point, the semi-secret Karen Brewer "day of action" where people were encouraged to protest outside their local council offices was an almost-total non-event. 19 people arrested in all. Very clearly the people involved are several standard deviations away from the mean.

tdgeek

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#2775461 9-Sep-2021 15:20

JPNZ:

tdgeek:

We will need to get used to personal lockdowns. We can choose to lay low if need be, the wee ones, and older ones who might feel better than chancing the virus even if fully vaccinated? If there was no normal lockdown then easy enough to support those that need it?

I disagree, for all those that are worried they can stay at home. Fully vaccinated should and will do as they please. Lockdowns cannot go on forever...

Thats essentially what I said. No normal lockdown, lock yourself down if you choose

Handle9

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#2775463 9-Sep-2021 15:21

sen8or:
Dare I say it, but we need the likes of google / microsoft / facebook or apple to develop the passport, they seem to have the resources and their systems are widely used worldwide (and well, google and facebook certainly have the data already).

It will only be a mess because parties with vested interests will poke holes in anyone elses implementation that means they won't get their slice of the (very substantial) money pie.

It's not really a mess because of vested interests, it more as different countries have different standards and varying degrees of integration between labs and their vaccination registers.

For a vaccination passport to be much use it needs to also cover preflight testing. What tests are acceptable in what time frame changes on a weekly basis, country by country.

Travel for the next couple of years will likely still require stacks of paper.

JPNZ

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#2775465 9-Sep-2021 15:30

frankv:

JPNZ:

If we don't have any delta outbreaks by the end of the year and we are over 80% vaccinated there will be huge resistance to further lockdowns in 2022 and beyond.

I think you're overestimating the anti-lockdown sentiment in NZ. I believe that most Kiwis are very happy with the Government's handling of covid, and accept that lockdowns are a necessary evil.

As I said, currently there is not much resistance because we know opening up now will cause hospitals to be overrun. What you need to realise is when vaccinations hit the target or the end of the year whatever comes first the anti lockdown sentiment will rapidly increase. They are a "necessary evil" but not forever...

Government has been telling us for months once the vaccination program finishes we can open up like most other countries in the world.

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