![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
|
kiwifidget:
Some Mangatangi School pupils have not been able to return to school as they live in L4, even though the school is in L2.
Newsletter would indicate at 80% original role since reopening.
Buying a Tesla? Use my Tesla referral link and we both get discounts and credits.
It's south of the boundary, so in level 2.
And one of the kids was in school symptomatic on Thursday...
This has the potential to be a significant cluster.
Don't know what it means for tomorrows announcement. If zero cases is still the goal we should really be moving Auckland and the upper Waikato up to a newly created level 5 for a least a week.
I think that saying we are on top of this enough to drop to level 3 will risk loosing credibility. But saying we are moving to level 3 just to keep the rate of growth in check while we finish off vaccination will go down pretty poorly outside Auckland and the waikato.
Nuts that someone at school had symptoms and was allowed to remain.
Schools in NZ have been centres of various clusters in the past. I heard one expert saying that with unvaccinated students in schools, that they could become a reservoir for the virus, with a highly vaccinated population. I hope a vaccine gets approved for children under 12 soon.
Three new Covid cases in Waikato - including two Mangatangi School students - NZ Herald
Hopefully the whole NI won't come back to L3-4 Restriction and Auckland won't coerce PM to make them go down beyond L3 on Tuesday.
Divhon88:
Three new Covid cases in Waikato - including two Mangatangi School students - NZ Herald
Hopefully the whole NI won't come back to L3-4 Restriction and Auckland won't coerce PM to make them go down beyond L3 on Tuesday.
Based on what happened in Wellington when we went to L3 after an Australian bubble visitor tested positive, the Waikato could end up in L3. Doesn't make sense for entire NI, just catchment of school at this stage.
But it would be bad if Auckland went down to L3. Surveillance testing has been picking up some of the positive cases in Auckland which isn't a good sign. IMO Auckland should stay in L4 for another week, and they maybe could look at putting some suburbs where the case numbers are bad into a L4.5. They talked about putting some suburbs into higher levels last year, rather than entire cities. Then give people helicopter payments, so they don't need to work, as many of these people are essential workers. Isolating people kills off the transmission links. Then widespread testing throughout Auckland. They tested everyone in Wuhan. Lots of people living in a single property, mixed with poverty is not a good mix for covid.
mattwnz:
Watch todays standup when they were discussing this. The PM said there wasn't 'widespread' community transmission occurring. The PM didn't say that there wasn't any community transmission, just that it wasn't widespread.
Its large families intermixing. As compared to randoms infecting other randoms in the community. Given how Delta spreads, by now it should be throughout Auckland, but it's not.
tdgeek:
sbiddle:
The PM standing up tomorrow and telling Auckland they're staying at L4 is going to be very difficult to do because it's literally going to be an admission of failure. Weeks ago we were told this was under control, and last week excitedly said that L3 was going to happen this week in principle.
While there are still unlinked mystery cases the only option now that we've doubled down on our elimination strategy is to follow what is happening in Australia which is going to be a much longer term lockdown for Auckland.
Vaccination is only out way out if people are actually going to be vaccinated. It's pretty clear now we're hitting a plateau - I was even in Whakatana yesterday and the big popup vaccination centre didn't have a single person there. Parked nearby and didn't observe a single person going it, looked online and there was availability of every single timeslot for today.
I personally believe we have a fundamental problem now with a mindset in a chunk of the population that we beat Covid before, we're going to beat it again, and that there is no need to be vaccinated if there is no Covid in NZ.
The government nor MoH don't really want to start scaring people and warning about endemic Covid (but the messaging is slowly starting to move that way) and until we start having the discussion about what life is going to be like for the next 2-3years and making people realise the risks we are going to face some struggles.
Failure yes, but its not the Govt or MoH's fault, its the few non compliant Aucklanders who have failed the other Aucklanders. The we beat Covid doesnt wash. When lockdowns happen, we do it. Im in SI, we had L4, then L3 then L2, there is no Covid here, but we still do it, as we may get it from MIQ or AKL, it is what it is.
Blaming the people is simply not correct. Yes some cases are people who haven't followed the rules, but every other country is full of cases of spread at essential businesses such as supermarkets and essential manufacturing that are open. Unless we're going to mandate better PPE for everybody incl N95/KN95 masks there is always going to be a very real risk of spread.
The govt really can't win today. They set the expectation that Auckland was going to move today and so many people put there hopes on that. If a move doesn't occur there are going to be a lot of people who have a very real right to be highly annoyed at being given false hope.
On the other hand a move to L3 is going to be a fundamental admission that the last week of L4 was a total waste of time and a move towards acceptance of the fact that we simply can't beat Covid.
The bigger problem is the one of vaccine rollout, and how we go about improving this. There is no denying we've hit a plateau, and I'm really surprised we're still sticking to 6 weeks for the 2nd jab now that we have no shortage of vaccines, as getting as many people as we can fully vaccinated ASAP is the goal now
sbiddle:
On the other hand a move to L3 is going to be a fundamental admission that the last week of L4 was a total waste of time and a move towards acceptance of the fact that we simply can't beat Covid.
This is what I believe will happen today..
Panasonic 65GZ1000, Onkyo RZ730, Atmos 5.1.2, AppleTV 4K, Nest Mini's, PS5, PS3, MacbookPro, iPad Pro, Apple watch SE2, iPhone 15+
JPNZ:
sbiddle:
On the other hand a move to L3 is going to be a fundamental admission that the last week of L4 was a total waste of time and a move towards acceptance of the fact that we simply can't beat Covid.
This is what I believe will happen today..
The problem is that's going to leave the PM highly exposed. She's doubled down so many times when it comes to her views that this can be beaten. Elimination is a process that means we have zero tolerance towards new cases - and a move to L3 today is going to be a fundamental move away from that very elimination strategy we've been told forms the cornerstone of our approach.
I really don't know why the PM made such a big deal last week about the in principle decision to move to L3 a week out. In many previous outbreaks the govt have never given advice like that a week out. Maybe it was a way of trying to help people get through this and give them something to look forward to, but the problem is if we don't move to L3 today that's just going to mean much higher levels of disappointment.
sbiddle:
The problem is that's going to leave the PM highly exposed. She's doubled down so many times when it comes to her views that this can be beaten. Elimination is a process that means we have zero tolerance towards new cases - and a move to L3 today is going to be a fundamental move away from that very elimination strategy we've been told forms the cornerstone of our approach.
I really don't know why the PM made such a big deal last week about the in principle decision to move to L3 a week out. In many previous outbreaks the govt have never given advice like that a week out. Maybe it was a way of trying to help people get through this and give them something to look forward to, but the problem is if we don't move to L3 today that's just going to mean much higher levels of disappointment.
In the first outbreak we "had to have had a number of days at zero cases in the community" before moving down levels. Delta makes that almost impossible IMO. She made the statement and now she has to live with the repercussions however severe. Its been 5 weeks and although we have seen a dip we haven't got anywhere close to zero cases in a day even in our highest alert level.
I'm fascinated to see how she handles it as there is no middle ground here.
Panasonic 65GZ1000, Onkyo RZ730, Atmos 5.1.2, AppleTV 4K, Nest Mini's, PS5, PS3, MacbookPro, iPad Pro, Apple watch SE2, iPhone 15+
JPNZ:
sbiddle:
The problem is that's going to leave the PM highly exposed. She's doubled down so many times when it comes to her views that this can be beaten. Elimination is a process that means we have zero tolerance towards new cases - and a move to L3 today is going to be a fundamental move away from that very elimination strategy we've been told forms the cornerstone of our approach.
I really don't know why the PM made such a big deal last week about the in principle decision to move to L3 a week out. In many previous outbreaks the govt have never given advice like that a week out. Maybe it was a way of trying to help people get through this and give them something to look forward to, but the problem is if we don't move to L3 today that's just going to mean much higher levels of disappointment.
In the first outbreak we "had to have had a number of days at zero cases in the community" before moving down levels. Delta makes that almost impossible IMO. She made the statement and now she has to live with the repercussions however severe. Its been 5 weeks and although we have seen a dip we haven't got anywhere close to zero cases in a day even in our highest alert level.
I'm fascinated to see how she handles it as there is no middle ground here.
Yes.. The decision today is probably going to be the hardest one of the whole pandemic (ignoring the initial lockdown last year because that was very much a joint AU/NZ decision). The language and communication to justify the move either way is going to be interesting to watch.
In many ways I see Auckland right now as similar to ACT. The rest of Australia is over lockdowns and doesn't care any longer, but ACT went into their current lockdown with the attitude that they could easily beat this to get back to their normal life, but they've found that simply isn't possible.
I also wonder how much financial pressure has gone into the L3 thoughts, information behind the scenes from Robertson that we don't hear about? Having the economic hub of the country hamstrung by Level 4 for 5 weeks is bad enough let alone ongoing wage subsidies, resurgence support and support loans for business for the rest of the country.
The billions of dollars already spent will reach a limit soon.
Panasonic 65GZ1000, Onkyo RZ730, Atmos 5.1.2, AppleTV 4K, Nest Mini's, PS5, PS3, MacbookPro, iPad Pro, Apple watch SE2, iPhone 15+
JPNZ:
Having the economic hub of the country hamstrung by Level 4 for 5 weeks is bad enough let alone ongoing wage subsidies, resurgence support and support loans for business for the rest of the country.
Have to be also balanced against whatever level of national lockdown will be required at the present and future levels of vaccination, factoring in access to healthcare.
Level 2 as we have in in Chch won't work to contain spread, and it's not because of low compliance, there's just far too much P2P contact allowed. Wearing a mask isn't a panacea, nor is one dose of the vaccine effective enough to keep a lid on transmission.
Probably won't be long at all if Akl goes to L3 that the rest of the country will have to be elevated up from present L2, and it'll probably have to stay that way until Xmas.
So keeping Auckland at L4 for longer might be horrible, but the alternative might be worse. Instead of level 3 being "Level 4 with maccas", it could be be Level 4 with maccas and body bags.
Fred99:
Instead of level 3 being "Level 4 with maccas", it could be be Level 4 with maccas and body bags.
oh come on your reaching there....
Just remind me how many people have died of covid in the 5 weeks of Delta already?
Panasonic 65GZ1000, Onkyo RZ730, Atmos 5.1.2, AppleTV 4K, Nest Mini's, PS5, PS3, MacbookPro, iPad Pro, Apple watch SE2, iPhone 15+
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |